1. Space Weather Forecast Models from the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling The Solar Wind Forecast Model Carrington Rotation 1896Carrington Rotation 2000 Product: Heliospheric Tomography Probabilistic Geo-Effectiveness Observed climatology 300 400 500 600 700 Vel (km/s) 0 20 40 Den (#/cc) 0 5 10 15 Btot (nT) -4 -2 0 2 VBz -4-3-201234 0 20 40 60 Epoch (days) 3-hr ap Global Ambient Solar Wind: erupted magnetic flux distribution outward pressure due to hot corona extended heating for fast wind rotational interactions commencing in SEC development environment in Spring 2007 Importance for Space Wx Forecasting: constitutes most of the solar wind recurrent activity path for CMEs, SEPs and Cosmic Radiation carries “killer” electrons onset, duration, and magnitude of “high speed stream” events coupling with geospace models The Geospace Forecast Model Verification of Daily Solar Wind Model CISM Model Development Validation Broad Scientific Usage, CCMC Feedback SEC identifies models with potential value CISM Model on SEC development computer SEC evaluates operational value Model in Testbed Model in Operations CISM: 100% 70% 1% 0% SEC: 0% 30% 99% 100% Implementation Effort: V report PDR CDRsPRR CISM Science to SEC Operations Model Transition Process The Planetary Equivalent Amplitude Forecast Model 1-7 Day Ap Time Series Prediction: index constructed from North American ground- based magnetometers (same as USAF) persistent, trend, recurrent features of observed Ap “exogeneous” solar wind speed input (from ACE) based on McPherron (1990) linear filter scheme continuously running in SEC development environment since May 2004 Importance for Space Wx Forecasting: “end-of-day” summary of geomagnetic activity alerts for geomagnetic activity watch levels automated way of obtaining a forecast quick outlook of anticipated geomagnetic activity driver for other empirical methods (Kp, MSIS90) 3-24 Hour ap Time Series Prediction: running index constructed as daily index but from 3-hour averages persistence of latest ap measurement combined with “exogeneous” solar wind speed input (ACE) continuously running in SEC development environment since October 2006 Importance for Space Wx Forecasting: short term outlook of effects due to quick changes in solar wind conditions better 1-day forecast for Ap probabilistic forecast of Ap/ap warning level crossings Legend to Ap/ap forecast products: blue bars: daily measured values black bars: 1-day predicted values grey stripe: 27-days of solar rotation colored lines: watch/warning levels Validation of Daily Ap Global Prediction Efficiencies (PE) for Daily Ap Probabilities of Warning Thresholds for given predicted ap Probabilistic Warning Levels Products: Daily, 3-Hr, 24-Hr Indices Global Magnetosphere-Ionosphere- Thermosphere: physics-based simulations of Earth’s space environment with coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere model commencing in SEC development environment in Winter 2007/2008 Importance for Space Wx Forecasting: specification of geomagnetic disturbance and characterization of the electro-jet electron content of ionosphere description of the neutral atmosphere density and wind identification of magnetopause location predictions and alerts for utility companies, telecommunications, and satellite operators Legend to SW forecast product: blue bars: daily measured values black bars: 8-hour predicted values colored lines: watch/warning levels Product: Solar Wind Parameters at L 1