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ACRE UPDATE Estimates as of February 9, 2010 Ron Haugen/Dwight Aakre Farm Management Specialists.

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Presentation on theme: "ACRE UPDATE Estimates as of February 9, 2010 Ron Haugen/Dwight Aakre Farm Management Specialists."— Presentation transcript:

1 ACRE UPDATE Estimates as of February 9, 2010 Ron Haugen/Dwight Aakre Farm Management Specialists

2 Percent of FSA Farms and Base Acres Enrolled in ACRE, 2009 ACRE EnrollmentMNMTNDSD Percent of Farms641018 Percent of Base Acres10 1526 Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Oklahoma had 55.9% of total enrolled farms 2

3 Ranking of Base Acres Enrolled in ACRE and Percent of Base, 2009 Crop RankMN %MT %ND %SD % 1Corn - 11Wheat - 9Wheat - 13Corn - 26 2Soybeans - 12Barley - 11Soybeans - 38Wheat - 28 3Wheat - 7Corn - 32Soybeans - 26 3

4 CropMNMTNDSD payment per planted/considered planted acre Wheat$34.71$18.06$0.00$35.44 Barley$45.99$0.00$16.83$14.89 Oats$12.30$0.00$2.38$28.30 Corn$0.00 Sorghum$0.00 Soybeans$0.00$1.18$0.00 Dry Peas$35.02$6.54 Lentilsn/a$0.00 Large Chickpeasn/a$36.10$0.00 Small Chickpeasn/a$52.81$0.00$16.32 Sunflower57.84$30.66$24.26 Canola$0.00 Flaxseed$28.84$3.09$19.14$0.00 Mustard Safflower $0.00 Payment per planted acre is 83.3 percent of ACRE payment rate Blank cells have missing yield data Projected 2009 ACRE Payments by State by Crop as of February 9, 2010 4

5 NASS Monthly Wheat Prices and Historical Weights 2009/10 Month2006/072007/082008/09AveragePrice Jun16.0%12.0%11.4%13.1%$5.74 Jul18.5%27.1%21.8%22.5%$5.13 Aug12.6%18.7%14.9%15.4%$4.83 Sep6.9%9.4%7.8%8.0%$4.48 Oct9.1%4.5%3.8%5.8%$4.47 Nov4.8%3.8%3.2%3.9%$4.79 Dec6.8%5.9%6.9%6.5%$4.81 Jan8.2%7.8%7.4%7.8% $4.79 Feb5.1%3.9%4.3%4.4% Mar4.9%3.1%6.6%4.9% Apr4.2%2.0%5.3%3.8% May2.9%1.8%6.6%3.8% 5

6 NASS Monthly Corn Prices and Historical Weights 2009/10 Month2006/072007/082008/09AveragePrice Sep6.9%7.9%4.5%6.4%$3.25 Oct14.7%13.7%9.4%12.6%$3.61 Nov14.6%11.1%11.9%12.5%$3.65 Dec8.0%8.7%8.9%8.5%$3.59 Jan15.3%16.5%12.8%14.9% $3.45 Feb5.9%7.3%6.4%6.5% Mar6.6%7.5%9.6%7.9% Apr4.4%6.2%6.7%5.8% May4.7%4.6%9.1%6.1% Jun6.6%6.1%7.4%6.7% Jul6.2%6.4%6.9%6.5% Aug6.1%4.0%6.4%5.5% 6

7 NASS Monthly Soybean Prices and Historical Weights 2009/10 Month2006/072007/082008/09AveragePrice Sep5.6%10.4%4.5%6.8%$9.75 Oct19.9%21.1%9.4%16.8%$9.44 Nov10.2%10.7%11.9%10.9%$9.53 Dec8.8%8.2%8.9%8.6%$9.96 Jan15.1%17.3%12.8%15.1% $9.49 Feb6.8%7.3%6.4%6.8% Mar6.2%6.3%9.6%7.4% Apr5.1%4.8%6.7%5.5% May5.3%3.2%9.1%5.9% Jun6.2%4.4%7.4%6.0% Jul5.5%4.4%6.9%5.6% Aug5.3%1.9%6.4%4.5% 7

8 State Acre Guarantee 90% Times Benchmark State Yield (5-year Olympic average planted yield) Times ACRE Program Guarantee Price (2-year national average market price) Maximum change +/- 10% from previous year 8

9 Projected Price Guarantee for 2010 and Change from 2009 Estimated2009 2009/102010PricePercent Crop2008/09ForecastGuarantee Change Wheat$6.78$4.85$5.82$6.63-12.3% Barley$3.82$2.60$3.21$4.09-21.5% Oats$3.15$2.10$2.63$2.89-9.2% Corn$4.06$3.70$3.88$4.13-6.1% Sorghum$3.20$3.30$3.25$3.64-10.7% Soybeans$9.97$9.45$9.71$10.04-3.3% Dry Peas$13.40$8.75$11.08$13.25-16.4% Lentils$33.80$26.00$29.90 0.0% Large Chickpeas$33.40$30.40$31.90$31.700.6% Small Chickpeas$29.10$18.00$23.55$25.00-5.8% Sunflower$21.80$14.75$18.28$21.75-16.0% Canola$18.70$16.00$17.35$18.50-6.2% Flaxseed$12.70$7.75$10.23$12.85-20.4% Mustard$43.80$24.25$34.03$35.90-5.2% Safflower$24.80$20.00$22.40$21.703.2% 2009/10 Forecast prices based on Jan 12 USDA reports 9

10 Projected Yield Guarantee for 2010 and Change from 2009, North Dakota 2009Est 2010 State Percent CropYield Change Wheat35.3 0.0% Barley55.055.30.5% Oats56.056.30.5% Corn117.0119.72.3% Sorghum Soybeans31.532.22.2% Dry Peas18.2018.17-0.2% Lentils11.2011.230.3% Large Chickpeas14.2015.509.2% Small Chickpeas10.9013.5324.1% Sunflower13.3014.237.0% Canola14.0014.030.2% Flaxseed18.018.21.1% Mustard Safflower 2009/10 Forecast prices based on Jan 12 USDA reports 10

11 Estimated State Guarantee for 2010, North Dakota 2009Est. 20102010 State PercentMinimum CropGuarantee ChangeGuarantee Wheat$210.64$184.74-12.3%$189.58 Barley$202.21$159.76-21.0%$181.99 Oats$145.66$133.01-8.7%$131.09 Corn$434.36$417.99-3.8%$390.92 Sorghum$131.04$117.94 Soybeans$284.92$284.29-0.2%$256.43 Dry Peas$217.85$181.11-16.9%$196.07 Lentils$299.88$302.200.8%$269.89 Large Chickpeas$405.77$445.019.7%$365.19 Small Chickpeas$247.21$286.7716.0%$222.49 Sunflower$260.71$234.05-10.2%$234.64 Canola$234.05$219.08-6.4%$210.65 Flaxseed$208.98$167.49-19.9%$188.08 Mustard$168.12$151.31 Safflower$127.33 $114.60

12 2010 ACRE/DCP Enrollment sign-up deadline is June 1, 2010 2009 ACRE Participants must report 2009 production by July 15, 2010 must certify benchmark farm yield by July 15, 2010 file FSA-658 12

13 NDSU Extension Service Farm Management Website http://www.ag.ndsu.nodak.edu/aginfo/farmmgmt/farmmgmt.htm Farm Service Agency ACRE Website http://www.fsa.usda.gov/dcp 13

14 Thank you, Any Questions? 14


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