1. Statistics HAS 3150

2. Sources of knowing Tenacity Intuition Authority Personal experience Reasoning Deductive Inductive

3. Why collect facts? Exploratory research Confirmatory research

4. Some terms Reliability Validity

5. Probability = 3/6 or ½ or 50% = 3/6 x 2/5 = 1/5 or 20%

6. Dog Owners and Heart Attacks 92 people had a heart attack 78 survived 14 did not 53 were dog owners 39 were not

7. Dogs and Heart Attacks Dog Owners Non-owners Survived heart attack 50/92.5435 28/92.3043 78/92.8478 Didn’t make it 3/92.0326 11/92.1192 14/92.1522 53/92.5761 39/92.4239

8. Power Probability of making a correct decision Three factors The Alpha level The sample size The effect size

9. An example… NPower 10.18 20.33 50.70 100.94

10. Power False positives False negatives

11. Risk Assessment

12. Risk Perception Control Knowledge Catastrophes Dreadness and knowability

13. Cost Benefit Analysis

14. Vital Statistics Births Deaths Marriages and divorces Spontaneous fetal deaths and abortions

15. The Census How many people Age-adjusted or age-specific Sex-specific Race-specific Every 10 years Sampling versus population

16. National Center for Health Statistics

17. Accuracy and availability “…the Government [is] very keen on amassing statistics. They collect them, add them, raise them to the nth power, take the cubed root and prepare wonderful diagrams. But you must never forget that every one of those figures comes in the first instance from the village watchman, who just puts down what he pleases.” British economist Sir Josiah Stamp (1880-1941)

18. Confidentiality HIPAA

19. Risk Factors Biological Environmental Lifestyle Psychosocial Access to health services

20. Analyzing Risk Factors Determinants Direct contributing factors Indirect contributing factors

22. Measuring Health Mortality-based indicators Crude mortality rates Age-specific mortality rates Life Expectancy Infant mortality

24. Measuring Health Morbidity and disability measures Used less Prevalence and Incidence

30. Jeopardy