1. Haydee Acebo, Cokiliar Brown-Smith, AJ Clark, Elijah German. Business Research Methods QNT/561 Dr. Warren Huckabay July 18, 2011 Team A

2. Table of Contents 1 Business Problem 2 Research Question 3 Hypothesis 4 Hypothesis Testing Procedure 5 Study Variables 6 -7 Data Collection Plan 8 Data Collection Results 9 Conclusion 10 References Team A

3. Nonprofit Organization Past President Approval Ratings Positive Co- Relation to President Obama’s Reelection Business Problem Accurate Decision Making Team A p. 1

4. Research Question Team A p. 2 Is there a difference in the average approval ratings during the period 16 months prior to election of the presidents who were reelected and those who were not? Obama Roosevelt Truman Eisenhower Johnson Nixon Ford Carter Reagan Bush H.W. Clinton Note: Research question will help analyze if President Obama has more probabilities of winning reelection based on past approval ratings 16 months prior to election day.

5. Hypothesis Team A p. 3 Null Hypothesis : There is no difference in the mean approval rating during the period 16 months prior election for those presidents who were reelected and those who were not. Alternate hypothesis : There is a difference in the mean approval rating during the period 16 months prior election for those presidents who were reelected and those who were not.

6. Hypothesis Testing Procedure Team A p. 4 Test: Difference between two independent groups. Elected and not Reelected. Did average approval ratings during 16 months prior to reelection changed for presidents who were reelected and those who were not ? Test: Difference between two independent groups. Elected and not Reelected. Did average approval ratings during 16 months prior to reelection changed for presidents who were reelected and those who were not ? Won Reelection Reagan at 45% 18 months before Presidential Election. Won Reelection Reagan at 45% 18 months before Presidential Election. Lost Reelection Bush H.W at 75% 18 months before Presidential Election. Lost Reelection Bush H.W at 75% 18 months before Presidential Election.

7. Study Variables Team A p. 5 Discrete variables Independent variable: employment rates, healthcare, educational, and war Dependent variable: President Obama approval ratings Measures of central tendency for former Presidents: mean, mode, median Level of measurement for all study variables is ratio.

8. Data Collection Plan Team A p. 6 Data was collected from www.gallup. com www.gallup. com Team A collected Gallup Poll results of approval ratings for 10 United States Presidents Sample size: President Roosevelt, Truman, Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush (elder), and Clinton Results show three presidents lost reelection, some with favorable approval rating

9. Data Collection Plan (Continued) Team A p. 7 Data was collected from www.gallup. com www.gallup. com Team A collected results of approval and disapproval ratings for President Obama. 16- month period Sample size: 1,500 adults nationwide. Study done through telephone interviews from March 2010 –June 2011 Results show President Obama has an average approval rating of 47% and an average disapproval rating of 46%

10. Data Collection Results Team A p. 8 Study VariablesMean Unemployed9.5528 18.872 Approve Healthcare Plan19.688 Disapprove Healthcare Plan10.235 Approved War Plan16.425 Disapprove War Plan13.156 Approve Educational Costs, Cuts and Budget9.534 Disapprove Educational Costs, Cuts and Budget15.354 Data collected for former Presidents' approval rating shows an average of 56% for those who were reelected and an average of 48% for those who were not reelected. 18 Mos before ElectionApprovalRe-elected? %(Yes / No) 1940Roosevelt56%Yes 1948Truman54%Yes 1956Eisenhower68%Yes 1964Johnson64%Yes 1972Nixon50%No 1976Ford46%No 1980Carter35%No 1984Reagan45%Yes 1992Bush75%No 1996Clinton51%Yes 2004Bush36%No Data collected for President Obama shows the percentage of approval and disapproval of plans such as, healthcare, war, and education budgets. Obama’s total approval rating is 47% and disapproval of 46%.

11. Conclusion Team A p. 9 Team A fails to reject the null hypothesis P-value greater than significance level. Team A fails to reject hypothesis There is no difference in the mean approval rating during the period 16 months prior election for those presidents who were reelected and those who were not The statistic model is not a predictive value tool to tell if President Obama can win reelection. Non-profit organization saves time by not rushing to decisions.

12. References Team A p. 10 Cooper, D. R., & Schindler, P. S. (2006). Business research methods (9th ed.). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill. Gallup, Inc. (2011). www.Gallup.com. Retrieved from http://www.gallup.com/poll/8608/reflections-presidential- job-approval-reelection-odds.aspx www.Gallup.com http://www.gallup.com/poll/8608/reflections-presidential- job-approval-reelection-odds.aspx Gallup Inc.. (2011). Gallup. Retrieved from http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/gallup-daily-obama- job-approval.aspx Lind−Marchal−Wathen: Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics, 13th Edition 3. Describing Data: Numerical Measures Text © The McGraw−Hill, 2008