1. Does Money Matter? Emile Servan-Schreiber NewsFutures, Inc

2. It’s an important issue When you want to bring markets within companies; For US-based public-policy markets; How much accuracy is at stake when you forgo real-money for play-money?

3. The Challenge vs

4. More than 200 individual games Price = Probability Acquire or lose points through a scoring rule New England Patriots over Philadelphia Eagles

5. Servan-Schreiber, Wolfers, Pennock & Galebach (2004) Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? Electronic Markets, 14(3). Tradesports vs. NewsFutures (predicting NFL games)

6. Servan-Schreiber, Wolfers, Pennock & Galebach (2004) Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? Electronic Markets, 14(3).

7. Using real-money doesn’t buy any additional accuracy as long as the traders are knowledgeable and motivated (upside). Real Cash vs. Play Money (predicting NFL games) Servan-Schreiber, Wolfers, Pennock & Galebach (2004) Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? Electronic Markets, 14(3).

8. Markets vs Individual Experts NewsFutures’ markets finished in the top 0.4% Competing against 1810 individual NFL experts In the Probability Football contest (rank = 6th / 1810) Servan-Schreiber, Wolfers, Pennock & Galebach (2004) Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? Electronic Markets, 14(3).

9. Thanks to their consistent accuracy over the entire season, the markets progressively beat most individual “experts”. Markets vs Individual Experts Servan-Schreiber, Wolfers, Pennock & Galebach (2004) Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? Electronic Markets, 14(3).

10. Google IPO Market

11. Bush 2004 Contract A Bush “blowout” or “too-close-to-call”? 50% chance

12. An unusually close election Smallest popular vote margin of victory (2.7%) for an incumbent president since 1828. It all came down to 60,000 votes in Ohio.