1. Hypothesis testing 1.Make assumptions. One of them is the “hypothesis.” 2.Calculate the probability of what happened based on the assumptions. 3.If the probability of what happened is too low, reject the hypothesis.

2. Coin Assumption: The probability of heads is ½. One toss possibilities: The assumption implies that each possibility is equally likely. HT

3. Coin Assumption: The probability of heads is ½. Two toss possibilities: The assumption implies that each possibility is equally likely. HHHT THTT

4. Three toss possibilities (each 1/8 =.125): HHHHHTHTHHTT THHTHTTTHTTT

5. Four toss possibilities (each 1/16 =.0625): HHHHHHHTHHTHHHTT HTHHHTHTHTTHHTTT THHHTHHTTHTHTHTT TTHHTTHTTTTHTTTT

6. Five toss possibilities (each hypothesized to have probability of 1/32 =.03125): HHH HH HHH HT HHH TH HHH TT THH HH THH HT THH TH THH TT HHT HH HHT HT HHT TH HHT TT THT HH THT HT THT TH THT TT HTH HH HTH HT HTH TH HTH TT TTH HH TTH HT TTH TH TTH TT HTT HH HTT HT HTT TH HTT TT TTT HH TTT HT TTT TH TTT TT

7. If hypothesis is true that heads and tails are equally likely heads

8. Six tosses possibilities, each hypothesized to have a probability of 1/64 =.015625: HHHHHHHHHHHTHHHHTHHHHHTTHTHHHHHTHHHTHTHHTHHTHHTT HHHTHHHHHTHTHHHTTHHHHTTTHTHTHHHTHTHTHTHTTHHTHTTT HHTHHHHHTHHTHHTHTHHHTHTTHTTHHHHTTHHTHTTHTHHTTHTT HHTTHHHHTTHTHHTTTHHHTTTTHTTTHHHTTTHTHTTTTHHTTTTT THHHHHTHHHHTTHHHTHTHHHTTTTHHHHTTHHHTTTHHTHTTHHTT THHTHHTHHTHTTHHTTHTHHTTTTTHTHHTTHTHTTTHTTHTTHTTT THTHHHTHTHHTTHTHTHTHTHTTTTTHHHTTTHHTTTTHTHTTTHTT THTTHHTHTTHTTHTTTHTHTTTTTTTTHHTTTTHTTTTTTHTTTTTT

10. Cards

11. The probability of correctly naming a card drawn at random is

12. The probability of correctly naming a card drawn at random is 1/52 … if you hypothesize that every card is equally likely to be drawn