1. Education and Fragile States: An Overview of Key Issues Peter Buckland The World Bank CGCE-CIDA Learning Forum: Education for Children in Conflict Affected States Ottawa, Canada, April 28, 2008

2. Education, Poverty and Conflict Poverty Education Conflict Fighting Poverty Economic Growth Efficient Resource Use Equitable resource allocation Building Social Cohesion Community/social funds School grants Non government execution Reducing Fragility Link with other initiatives (OECD-DAC, FTI) State building Peace building

3. Fragile & conflict-affected situations: Now a mainstream issue A significant number of countries: –Core group of 45 countries (MDB definition –34 IDA-eligible (41%), 11 MICs –Additional conflict/fragility at a sub-national level within strongly performing countries Crucial for the Bank’s development mission, relevance and credibility: –They lag other countries against the MDGs and the poverty gap is increasing –FCS are 19% of IDA-eligible population but house over one third of its poor –As IDA countries graduate, FCS will be a larger proportion of IDA’s client base –Country-level and global links between peace and development are a priority for both Part I and Part II shareholders

4. Typology / Scenarios Deterioration Characteristics: deteriorating governance, rising conflict risk and increased division between government and the international community on development strategy. IDA strategy: Focus on stemming the decline in governance and social indicators and preventing an escalation of conflict; Increased use of CDD, private sector, NGO and ring-fenced mechanisms; Dialogue with national authorities on transparency, addressing declining development indicators, and approaches to decrease conflict risk. Prolonged political crisis Characteristics: prolonged conflict or political impasse between national stakeholders; no consensus between government and the international community. IDA strategy: Focus on maintaining operational readiness to engage in the event of a turnaround, through small grant finance for training and national dialogue on economic and development issues; Pilot/demonstration projects, generally through non-government recipients Post-conflict or peace building transition Characteristics: Peace, national reconciliation or agreed transition process supported by the international community. Government priorities expressed through a Transitional Results Framework. IDA strategy: Focus on supporting peace-building efforts and laying the basis for longer term institutional and economic recovery; Balance of visible results (in private sector recovery, job creation, infrastructure rehabilitation, service delivery and community-driven development) and state institution-building. Gradual improvement Characteristics: State capacity exists and reform efforts have made some progress, but situation remains fragile and capacity-constrained. Includes post-conflict countries where reform progress has been positive but gradual. IDA strategy: Focus on building key state functions to take on a strong and accountable role in facilitating economic growth, service delivery; completion of larger scale capital investments; Support domestic reform currents.

5. Different needs and priorities: short-term development objectives: peace stability and basic governance improvements (capacity and accountability) Different relationship with national authorities: transitional governments, sanctions, peace processes, use of non-government implementation Different international partners: diplomatic, peace-keeping, humanitarian Different program and project design: hands-on, adapted to very low capacity, and sensitive to conflict and political dynamics Specialized policy & knowledge work: peace and security issues; basic state- building, service delivery transitions with humanitarian agencies Specialized staff competences: political awareness, knowledge of diplomatic, security and humanitarian partners; experience of specialized program and project approaches; energy and resilience Specific financing provisions and instruments: rapid response; exceptional post-conflict allocations; UN and non-government financing Greater need for intensive country and donor dialogue Common Elements in all Fragile Situations

6. Persistent dilemmas Need for “quick wins” requires supporting those with greater capacity rather than greatest need; (the fast track dilemma) Need for independent monitoring and evaluation; (the coach and referee dilemma) Need for simplicity in the face of complexity (the KISS dilemma) Balance the urgent and the important (the urgency dilemma) Build on what exists without reconstructing the past (the innovation dilemma)

7. Analysis of Bank Response Active education programs in 30 (66%) Of approx $2bn in financing: –20% IBRD –47% IDA Credit –33% Grant In terms of expenditure; –43% Increasing access (mostly construction/rehab) –33% Quality inputs (teacher ed. & textbooks) –24% Improving management/policy

8. The FTI Progressive Framework Goal To expand support for education in fragile states to make progress towards achievement of the Millennium Development Goals while reducing fragility and building stability Purpose: A tool to facilitate development of an interim education strategy that: –build on or are broadly aligned with existing strategies –are prioritized according to the context –are presented as a common strategy for action –outline implementation arrangements which include fiduciary assurances

9. Using the Progressive Framework The PF provides an illustrative set of process indicators on the trajectory towards the development target i.e. achieving the benchmarks for FTI endorsement These indicators cover four key dimensions for the situation analysis to ensure a systemic overview –Sector assessment, planning and coordination; –Resource mobilization and financial management; –Service delivery; and –Monitoring student flows and learning.

10. The PF Indicators – an example INTERIM STATUS DEVELOPMENT TARGET Internal and external resources mobilized to complement community inputs for basic service delivery Increased national revenue base and more predictable external support for investment and, where necessary, recurrent expenditure. FTI standards for public domestic revenue as share of GDP, Education share of recurrent expenditure, Primary share of education recurrent expenditure Resource Mobilization & Financial Management

11. STEP ONE Convene in-country education sector working group (Notify Secretariat of intention to develop Interim Strategy) STEP TWO Undertake an education and fragility situation analysis to identify the priority areas for action (using PF and other tools. FTI provides support for planning process) STEP THREE Develop an Interim Strategy with implementation plan including financing and fiduciary arrangements (External evaluation by FTI Reviewers & Endorsement by FTI) STEP FOUR Implement the Interim Strategy using resources mobilized locally, plus bilateral, foundations and/or from an interim financing window/fund (Monitoring by FTI Secretariat) A Four Step Process