1. Anna Krook Riekkola, Energy Systems Technology Tying Europe together – long-term effects on green electricity production in the Nordic countries from cross-border trade Anna Krook Riekkola, Ingrid Nyström and Erik Ahlgren

2. Anna Krook Riekkola, Energy Systems Technology Questions How will future investments in new elec- tricity production in the Nordic countries change if the electricity trade with Germany and Poland increase? Will it affect the share of “green electricity”? How shall this trade be described in MARKAL_Nordic? 2 (15)

3. Anna Krook Riekkola, Energy Systems Technology 3 (15)

4. Anna Krook Riekkola, Energy Systems Technology Short-term perspective Wind: Driven by weather Hydro: Driven by electricity-demand Biomass: Driven by heat-demand Solar: Driven by weather 4 (15)

5. Anna Krook Riekkola, Energy Systems Technology Demand for additional: Reserve capacity within the same grid-area Instruments to control electricity-demand Transmission capacity to other grid-areas with available el production capacity Reserve capacity within the same grid-area Instruments to control electricity-demand Transmission capacity to other grid-areas with available el production capacity 5 (15)

6. Anna Krook Riekkola, Energy Systems Technology Electricity production 1999 6 (15)

7. Anna Krook Riekkola, Energy Systems Technology Average Elspot Price during Day-Time Average Elspot Price during Night-Time Germany Sweden. 7 (15)

8. Anna Krook Riekkola, Energy Systems Technology Hourly Share of Yearly Demand - Sweden Winter Intermediate Summer Hourly Share of Yearly Demand - Germany

9. Anna Krook Riekkola, Energy Systems Technology Method - Model MARKAL model Bottom-up Energy-economic optimization model Linear programming Cost minimizing Demand-driven MARKAL_Nordic Time horizon up to 2050 Focus on grid- distributed energy: –Electricity, gas and district heating Electricity trade between the countries 8 (15)

10. Anna Krook Riekkola, Energy Systems Technology Model Development 1.Different ways of describing trade Case studies 2.Different transmission capacity between Denmark/Sweden and Germany/Poland 3.Different price levels in Germany/Poland 4.Different price profiles in Germany/Poland 9 (15)

11. Anna Krook Riekkola, Energy Systems Technology Electricity production in the Nordic countries – with existing capacity to Germany/Poland 10 (15)

12. Anna Krook Riekkola, Energy Systems Technology Import to the Nordic countries(+) and Export from the Nordic countries (-) 11 (15)

13. Anna Krook Riekkola, Energy Systems Technology 12 (15)

14. Anna Krook Riekkola, Energy Systems Technology 13 (15)

15. Anna Krook Riekkola, Energy Systems Technology Differences in Yearly Electricity production – High transmission capacity compared to Existing + More prod in case ”High cap” compared with ”Existing cap”  Less prod in case ”High cap” compared with ”Existing cap” 14 (15)

16. Anna Krook Riekkola, Energy Systems Technology Differences in Yearly Electricity production – Export is defined to not need reserve capacity compared Export defined to need reserve capacity + More prod when export not need reserve cap compared when it needs reserve cap - Less prod when export not need reserve cap compared when it needs reserve cap

17. Anna Krook Riekkola, Energy Systems Technology Conclusions 1.When modeling the Nordic electricity system it does matter how cross-border trade with surrounding countries is described. 2.By increasing the transmission lines and make shore that the market conditions are good, installed production capacity can decrease greatly. 3.Increasing transmission capacity between the Nordic countries and Germany/Poland gives an earlier expansion of wind power. Acknowledgement to: The Swedish National Energy Agency (STEM) YSSP 2002, Patrik Söderholm and Leonardo Barreto 15 (15)