1. Taking Energy Management to Societal-Scale Randy H. Katz University of California, Berkeley LoCal Winter Retreat Tahoe City, CA 10 January 2012 1

2. Sustainability Strategies that meet society’s present needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs Satisfaction of basic economic, social, and security needs now and in the future without undermining the natural resource base and environmental quality on which life depends – Energy, Water, Natural Resources, Environment, … – Green Manufacturing, Transportation, Agriculture,... – Increase efficiencies and minimize bad side-effects Use less, use what you need, use it better 2

3. Energy Sustainability Keep energy consumption flat (or declining) on a per capita and/or sq. ft. basis – Given growth in population – … Growth in economic activity – … Growth in building stock Energy efficiency in what people do and where people live and work 3

4. How to Achieve Societal-Scale? Observe and analyze at societal-scale, in order to manage Individual building deployments are Herculean efforts Scale to millions of structures and 100s million of people? Exploit existing information sources! – Crowdsourced information – Scrape on-line databases 4

5. Steven E. Koonin (former) Under Secretary for Science DOE “Rejected energy—energy that is essentially wasted—is about 60% of our total primary energy use. We consume roughly 95 quads of energy: 55 quads are rejected, and the remaining quads are useful energy. … Rejected energy in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors appears to be 20% of total rejected energy; these numbers were probably calculated because, truthfully, we do not have reliable data on where energy is being wasted. This situation calls for better instrumentation and data collection of these end-use sectors.” 5

6. California Commercial End Use Survey How they do a comprehensive study of commercial sector energy use now … Random sample of 2,790 commercial facilities Stratified by utility service area, climate region, building type, energy consumption level Twelve common commercial building types: floor stocks, fuel shares, electric & natural gas consumption, energy-use indices, energy intensities, 16-day hourly end-use load profiles See http://capabilities.itron.com/ceusweb/http://capabilities.itron.com/ceusweb/ 6

7. EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey How they do a comprehensive study of residential sector use now: nationally representative sample of housing units Interviewers collect energy characteristics on the housing unit, usage patterns, and household demographics Information combined with data from energy suppliers to estimate energy costs and usage for heating, cooling, appliances and other end uses See http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/ http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/ 7

8. Alternative Approach: Google Earth Crowd sourcing: Harness volunteer efforts to create Google SketchUp 3D building models 8

9. SketchUp 3D Warehouse 9

10. Google Earth Sufficient information to … – Estimate building square feet – Building orientation – Construction materials 10

11. Google Earth Berkeley Campus Number of floors Orientation of windows Roof facing Other analyses 11

12. Google Earth Berkeley Campus Not just “landmark” buildings, but apartment buildings, shops, residences, … 12

13. Mining Additional Information Sources: Zillow 13

14. Residential Information and Real Estate Analytics 14

15. Residential Information 15

16. Liveability Scoring 16

17. Walkscore.com near Berkeley Campus 17

18. Walkscore.com near Berkeley Campus 18

19. Walkscore.com near Berkeley Campus 19

20. Walkscore.com near Berkeley Campus 20

21. Recommendation Scoring 21

22. Walkscore.com near Berkeley Campus 22

23. Summary Computer Scientists’ contribution to sustainability: energy efficiency Energy awareness: observe-analyze-act to reduce energy usage in computers and buildings Overarching Strategies: energy proportionality, aggregation, supply-following loads 23

24. Conclusions The Challenge: Achieving Societal-Scale – Exploit crowd-sourcing User generated 3D models Exemplar buildings and automated model building Games with a purpose? – Exploit alternative information sources Satellite photos Real-estate databases Your creativity here Making the information actionable: energy analytics – Liveability scoring – Walkability and transport – Other social analytics 24