1. Integrating Global MHD Models with SECCHI Observations Pete Riley, Zoran Mikic, Jon Linker, Roberto Lionello, and Slava Titov SAIC, San Diego, California. R. Howard and A. Vourlidas NRL, Washington, DC. 5th SECCHI Consortium Meeting: SECCHI First Lights Orsay, March 5 - 8, 2007

2. Overview Our MHD Approach Modeling the ambient solar wind Modeling CMEs The SAIC-SECCHI modeling website Summary

4. Ambient Solar Wind: Eclipse Prediction Longitude Latitude CR2040+CR2041 (Feb 18 – Mar 17, 2006)

5. Ambient Solar Wind: Eclipse Prediction *Photo credit: The eclipse photo was taken by the Williams College Eclipse Expedition (Jay Pasachoff, Bryce Babcock, Steven Souza, Jesse Levitt, Megan Bruck, Shelby Kimmel, Paul Hess, Anna Tsykalova, and Amy Steele), with support from NSF/NASA/National Geographic. Image from Greece: Willams College Expedition* Simulated White Light Magnetic field lines and Photospheric magnetic field

6. Ambient Solar Wind: Eclipse Prediction Image from Egypt: Jean Mouette** **Photo credit: Courtesy of Jean Mouette and Serge Koutchmy, CNRS (France). MHD Simulation Observations

8. max B r ≈115G in AR Modeling the May 12, 1997 CME

9. Energization of the Magnetic Field Active region magnetic fields have free magnetic energy, i.e. W > W pot  Necessary for eruption Unfortunately, vector magnetograms available for AR8038 are of poor quality  We must energize the magnetic field in an ad hoc way We apply a flux preserving vortical flow : The direction of the twist matches the sign of  (= J z /B z ) for linear FF calculation (Liu, JASTP, 2004).

10. Shear Flow Introduced to Build Energy  s max = 0  s max = 0.056 rad  s max = 0.013 rad  s max = 0.11 rad

11. Simulated Emission on May 11, 1997 -1 0 1 2 3 4-1 -.1.8 1.7 2.6 3.5 -2 -1.2 -.4.4 1.2 2 2.8 0 1 2 3 4 Log 10 (DN/s) EIT 171ÅEIT 195Å EIT 284ÅSXT (composite)

12. Observed Emission on May 11, 1997 -1 0 1 2 3 4-1 -.1.8 1.7 2.6 3.5 -2 -1.2 -.4.4 1.2 2 2.8 0 1 2 3 4 Log 10 (DN/s) EIT 171ÅEIT 195Å EIT 284ÅSXT (composite)

13. Sigmoidal Structure Simulated EIT 195Å Observed EIT 195Å

14. Propagation of the Simulated CME in the Corona 6.8 hours after Flux Cancellation begins 8.8 hours7.8 hours Polarization Brightness Magnetic Field Lines

15. Longitude of Observer: 55 Deg. View from N. Pole Observer Meridional View N CME

16. Longitude of Observer: 99 Deg. View from N. Pole Observer Meridional View N CME

17. Longitude of Observer: 143 Deg. View from N. Pole Observer Meridional View N CME

18. Longitude of Observer: 123 Deg. Longitude of Observer: 168 Deg. STEREO B STEREO A STEREO Observations: 1 year (~44 deg. separation)

19. Longitude of Observer: 99 Deg. Longitude of Observer: 190 Deg. STEREO B STEREO A STEREO Observations: 2 years (~88 deg separation)

20. Longitude of Observer: 77 Deg. Longitude of Observer: 213 Deg. STEREO B STEREO A STEREO Observations: 3 years (~132 deg separation)

36. Summary We have continued to develop and improve our global MHD model of the solar corona and inner heliosphere; Ambient solar wind model can reproduce essential features of coronal and in situ observations; New CME results are very promising: Some “classic” emission and white light signatures of CMEs are produced; New website will make these modeling results available to scientific community: iMHD.net/stereo Username: stereo Password: ****** We welcome input from SECCHI community in developing new tools for the website

37. Extra Slides