1. 1 Evolution of the Internet in the Post-PC Era (1965-2010+) Randy H. Katz The United Microelectronics Corporation Distinguished Professor Computer Science Division, EECS Department University of California, Berkeley Berkeley, CA 94720-1776 USA randy@cs.Berkeley.edu

2. 2 Common Questions about the Internet Who invented the Internet? Who owns the Internet? How does the Internet scale? Is it safe to use the Internet? Where is the Internet going next?

3. 3 Evolution of the Computer Eniac, 1947 Telephone, 1876 Computer + Modem 1957 Early Wireless Phones, 1978 First Color TV Broadcast, 1953 HBO Launched, 1972 Interactive TV, 1990 Handheld Portable Phones, 1990 First PC Altair, 1974 IBM PC, 1981 Apple Mac, 1984 Apple Powerbook, 1990 IBM Thinkpad, 1992 HP Palmtop, 1991 Apple Newton, 1993 Pentium PC, 1993 Red Herring, 10/99

4. 4 Game Consoles Personal Digital Assistants Digital VCRs (TiVo, ReplayTV) Communicators Smart Telephones E-Toys (Furby, Aibo) Evolution of the Computer Pentium PC, 1993 Atari Home Pong, 1972 Apple iMac, 1998 Pentium II PC, 1997 Palm VII PDA, 1999 Network Computer, 1996 Free PC, 1999 Sega Dreamcast, 1999 Internet-enabled Smart Phones, 1999 Red Herring, 10/99 Proliferation of diverse end devices and access networks

5. 5 Automobiles 663 Million Telephones 1.5 Billion Electronic Chips 30 Billion X-Internet “X-Internet” Beyond the PC Forrester Research, May 2001 93 Million 407 Million Internet Computers Internet Users Today’s Internet

6. 6 “X-Internet” Beyond the PC Forrester Research, May 2001 Millions Year X Internet PC Internet

7. 7 The Shape of Things NOW! Siemens SL45 –A cellular phone with voice command, voice dialing, intelligent text for short messages –An MP3 player & headset –A digital voice recorder –Supports “Mobile Internet” with a built-in WAP Browser –Can store »45 minutes of music »5 hours of voice notes »“Unlimited” addresses/phone numbers

8. 8 After the PC … Not about gadgets or access technologies About services and applications Increasing, not decreasing, diversity Enabled by computing embedded in communications fabric

9. 9 Internet vs. Telephone Net Strengths –Intelligence at ends –Decentralized control –Operates over heterogeneous access technologies Weaknesses –No differential service –Variable performance delay –New functions difficult to add since end nodes must be upgraded –No trusted infrastructure Strengths –No end-point intelligence –Heterogeneous devices –Excellent voice performance Weaknesses –Achieves performance by overallocating resources –Difficult to add new services to “Intelligent Network” due to complex call model –Expensive approach for reliability

10. 10 Internet Growth Million Servers Annual Growth Rate > 50% Million U.S. Surfers Annual Growth Rate > 20% The Industry Standard, 2 July 2001

11. 11 The ARPANet Paul Baran –RAND Corp, early 1960s –Communications networks that would survive a major enemy attack ARPANet: Research vehicle for “Resource Sharing Computer Networks” –2 September 1969: UCLA first node on the ARPANet –December 1969: 4 nodes connected by phone lines SRI 940 UCLA Sigma 7 UCSB IBM 360 Utah PDP 10 IMPs BBN team that implemented the interface message processor

12. 12

13. 13 ARPANet Evolves into Internet Web Hosting Multiple ISPs Internet2 Backbone Internet Exchanges Application Hosting ASP: Application Service Provider AIP: Application Infrastructure Provider (e-commerce tookit, etc.) ARPANet SATNet PRNet TCP/IPNSFNetDeregulation & Commercialization 19651975198519952005 WWW ISP ASP AIP

14. 14

15. 15

16. 16 Parallel Backbones Qwest IP Backbone (Late 1999) Digex Backbone GTE Internetworking Backbone

17. 17

18. 18 Network “Cloud”

19. 19 Regional Net Regional Nets + Backbone Regional Net Regional Net Regional Net Regional Net Regional Net Backbone LAN

20. 20 ISP Backbones + NAPs + ISPs ISP Business ISP Consumer ISP LAN NAP Backbones Dial-up

21. 21 Core Networks Covad Core Networks + Access Networks @home ISP Cingular Sprint AOL LAN NAP Dial-up DSL Always on NAP Cable Head Ends Cell Satellite Fixed Wireless

22. 22 Covad Computers Inside the Core @home ISP Cingular Sprint AOL LAN NAP Dial-up DSL Always on NAP Cable Head Ends Cell Satellite Fixed Wireless

23. 23 Services Within the Network: Content Distribution “Internet Grid” Parallel Network Backbones Internet Exchange Points Co-Location Scalable Servers Web Caches

24. 24 P2P Services in the Internet: Napster, Gnutella, Freenet, …... Steve Miller Like an Eagle Steve Miller Space Cowboy... Directory Service Register my copy Find me a copy Look here Grid computing: sharing resources/enabling collaboration

25. 25 Services Within the Network: Streaming Media Clients Broadcasters Content Broadcast Management Platform and Tools Steve McCanne Edge Servers Load Balancing Thru Server Redirection; Content Broadcast Network Content Distribution Through Multicast Overlay Network Redirection Fabric Inter-ISP Redirection Peering

26. 26 Scalable Services: Redirection and Load Balancing Redirection Delay + Load Information

27. 27 Scalable Services: Denial of Service Redirection Black Hole

28. 28 The iMode Story 24 million Internet-capable cellular phone subscribers (7/01) –Charge by data volume, not connect time NTTDoCoMo becomes world’s largest ISP! –4500 test 3G subscribers (5/01) Most frequent used apps: –Voice + text messaging –Animated cartoons + special ringing tones –Computer games –Music/image distribution Japanese teenage girls driving the competitive development of new services!

29. 29 Common Questions about the Internet Who invented the Internet? Who owns the Internet? How does the Internet scale? Is it safe to use the Internet? Where is the Internet going next? How can I make money on the Internet?

30. 30 Global Packet Network Internetworking (Connectivity) ISP CLEC A New Kind of Internet Application-specific Overlay Networks (Multicast Tunnels, Mgmt Svrcs) Applications (Portals, E-Commerce, E-Tainment, Media) Application-specific Servers (Streaming Media, Transformation) ASP Internet Data Centers Appl Infrastructure Services (Distribution, Caching, Searching, Hosting) AIP ISV

31. 31 The Post-PC Era Not about specific Information Appliances Services spanning access networks, to achieve high performance/manage end device diversity Builds on the New Internet –Opening up of the connectivity “cloud” –Embedding computing in the communications fabric Pervasive support for “intelligent” services –Near you for faster access, more personalized, more localized –Scalable to deal with surges in demand as needed

32. 32