1. Bob Watson Fleagle Lecture University of Washington May 1, 2007 The science, economics, equity and politics of global warming Bob Watson Fleagle Lecture University of Washington Seattle May 1, 2007

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3. The science is robust Don’t expect the problem to go away

4. Climate Change Climate change is both a development and global environmental issue, which undermines:Climate change is both a development and global environmental issue, which undermines: environmental sustainabilityenvironmental sustainability poverty alleviation and the livelihoods of the poorpoverty alleviation and the livelihoods of the poor human healthhuman health personal, national and regional securitypersonal, national and regional security Climate change is an inter- and intra-generational equity issue:Climate change is an inter- and intra-generational equity issue: developing countries and poor people in developing countries are the most vulnerabledeveloping countries and poor people in developing countries are the most vulnerable the actions of today will affect future generations because of the long life-times of the greenhouse gases and the inertia within the climate systemthe actions of today will affect future generations because of the long life-times of the greenhouse gases and the inertia within the climate system

5. Climate Change Resilient Development Climate change resilient development requires implementation of cost-effective mitigation and adaptation strategies Climate change resilient development requires implementation of cost-effective mitigation and adaptation strategies It requires integrating considerations of current climate variability and projected changes in climate in sector and national economic planning – project and policy design It requires integrating considerations of current climate variability and projected changes in climate in sector and national economic planning – project and policy design While there is a need to minimize the emissions of greenhouse gases, it must be recognized that access to affordable energy in developing countries is a pre- requisite condition for poverty alleviation and sustainable economic growth –therefore, the challenge is to develop and utilize cost-effective low- carbon energy technologies (production and use) While there is a need to minimize the emissions of greenhouse gases, it must be recognized that access to affordable energy in developing countries is a pre- requisite condition for poverty alleviation and sustainable economic growth –therefore, the challenge is to develop and utilize cost-effective low- carbon energy technologies (production and use)

6. Climate Change The composition of the atmosphere, and the Earth’s climate has changed, mostly due to human activities (highly certain), and is projected to continue to change, globally and regionally:The composition of the atmosphere, and the Earth’s climate has changed, mostly due to human activities (highly certain), and is projected to continue to change, globally and regionally: Increased greenhouse gases and aerosolsIncreased greenhouse gases and aerosols Warmer temperaturesWarmer temperatures Changing precipitation patterns – spatially and temporallyChanging precipitation patterns – spatially and temporally Higher sea levels – higher storm surgesHigher sea levels – higher storm surges Retreating mountain glaciersRetreating mountain glaciers Melting of the Greenland ice capMelting of the Greenland ice cap Reduced arctic sea iceReduced arctic sea ice More frequent extreme weather eventsMore frequent extreme weather events heat waves, floods and droughts heat waves, floods and droughts More intense cyclonic events, e,g., hurricanes in the AtlanticMore intense cyclonic events, e,g., hurricanes in the Atlantic

7. Temperature Records (Deviation from 1951- 1980 mean) Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis at data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

8. Ice Melt in Greenland Source: http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/steffen/greenland/melt2005/

9. Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/picture_gallery/05/sci_nat_how_the_world_is_changing/html/1.stm Andean Glaciers

10. Hurricane Trends Source: Webster et al, SCIENCE 16 September 2005

11. Temperature change  C 1.0 0.5 0 -0.5 Observed temperature change over North America, Asia and Europe and model simulation with natural and man-made factors 19002000 observations Natural factors Natural + man 19002000 North AmericaAsiaEurope

12. The Global Climate of the 21st Century

13. Source: IPCC, Climate Change, 2001 …and temperature

14. Some Areas are Projected to Become Wetter, Others Drier Annual Mean Precipitation Change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

15. Recent Concerns Compared to the IPCC TAR, there is greater clarity and reduced uncertainty about the impacts of climate change Compared to the IPCC TAR, there is greater clarity and reduced uncertainty about the impacts of climate change A number of increased concerns have arisen: A number of increased concerns have arisen: Increased oceanic acidity likely to reduce the oceans capacity to absorb carbon dioxide and effect the entire marine food chainIncreased oceanic acidity likely to reduce the oceans capacity to absorb carbon dioxide and effect the entire marine food chain A regional increase of 2.7 o C above present (associated with a temperature rise of about 1.5 o C above today or 2 o C above pre- industrial level) could trigger a melting of the Greenland ice-capA regional increase of 2.7 o C above present (associated with a temperature rise of about 1.5 o C above today or 2 o C above pre- industrial level) could trigger a melting of the Greenland ice-cap Possible destabilization of the Antarctic ice sheets becomes more likely above 3 o C – the Larson B ice shelve is showing signs of instabilityPossible destabilization of the Antarctic ice sheets becomes more likely above 3 o C – the Larson B ice shelve is showing signs of instability The North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation may slow down or even shut downThe North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation may slow down or even shut down

16. Climate change is already affecting natural and social systems

17. Why Climate Change is a Serious Development Issue In this decade over 3 billion people in developing countries are likely to be affected by climate related disasters People in developing countries are affected at 20 times the rate of those in developed countries All countries are vulnerable to climate change but the poorest countries and the poorest people within them are most vulnerable. They are the most exposed and have the least means to adapt. Source: World Bank analysis based on CREDA data.

18. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 19821983198419851986 19871988198919901991 1992 19931994 199519961997199819992000 year % -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 rainfall variability GDP growth Ag GDP growth Ethiopia Preliminary results from : A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia From Claudia Sadoff Climate variability is already a major impediment to development

19. Climate Change Human-induced climate change is projected to: Decrease water availability and water quality in many arid- and semi-arid regions – increased risk of floods and droughts in many regions (the Stern Report concluded that the fraction of land in extreme drought at any one time could increase from 1% to 30%) Decrease water availability and water quality in many arid- and semi-arid regions – increased risk of floods and droughts in many regions (the Stern Report concluded that the fraction of land in extreme drought at any one time could increase from 1% to 30%) Decrease the reliability of hydropower and biomass production in some regions Decrease the reliability of hydropower and biomass production in some regions Increase the incidence of vector- (e.g., malaria and dengue) and water-borne (e.g., cholera) diseases, as well as heat stress mortality, threats nutrition in developing countries, increase in extreme weather event deaths Increase the incidence of vector- (e.g., malaria and dengue) and water-borne (e.g., cholera) diseases, as well as heat stress mortality, threats nutrition in developing countries, increase in extreme weather event deaths Decrease agricultural productivity for almost any warming in the tropics and sub-tropics and adverse impacts on fisheries Decrease agricultural productivity for almost any warming in the tropics and sub-tropics and adverse impacts on fisheries Adversely effect ecological systems, especially coral reefs, and exacerbate the loss of biodiversity Adversely effect ecological systems, especially coral reefs, and exacerbate the loss of biodiversity

20. Changes in available water Source: Maarten de Wit and Jacek Stankiewicz, Science 31 March 2006, http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/figsonly/311/5769/1917

21. Crop yields are projected to decrease in the tropics and sub-tropics, but increase at high latitudes Percentage change in average crop yields for a mid-range climate change scenario Even as soon as 2020 crop yields in SSA and parts of Asia are projected to decrease by up to 20%

22. Drivers of biodiversity loss growing

23. Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Human Well-being

24. Climate Change and Conflict Tens of millions of people displacedTens of millions of people displaced Low lying deltaic areas Low lying deltaic areas Small Island States Small Island States Food shortages where there is hunger and famine todayFood shortages where there is hunger and famine today Water shortages in areas already with water shortagesWater shortages in areas already with water shortages Natural resources depleted (e.g., coral reefs, forests), loss of ecological goods and servicesNatural resources depleted (e.g., coral reefs, forests), loss of ecological goods and services Increased incidence of diseaseIncreased incidence of disease Increased incidence of severe weather eventsIncreased incidence of severe weather events Climate Change, coupled with other local and global environmental issues can lead to local and regional conflict

25. Mitigating Climate Change The Economic and Financing Challenge

26. What is Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System? Deciding what constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference to the climate system” is a value judgment determined through socio-political processes informed by scientific, technical and socio-economic information Deciding what constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference to the climate system” is a value judgment determined through socio-political processes informed by scientific, technical and socio-economic information The basis for determining what constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference” varies by region and sector and depends upon: The basis for determining what constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference” varies by region and sector and depends upon: the impacts of climate change, which depends on the rate and magnitude of climate change, and the impacts of climate change, which depends on the rate and magnitude of climate change, and adaptive and mitigative capacity adaptive and mitigative capacity

27. Emissions Paths to Stabilization Emissions Paths to Stabilization Source: Stern Review

28. Projected Impacts of Climate Change Projected Impacts of Climate Change Source: Stern Review

31. Largest Emitters : Developed & Developing Largest Emitters : Developed & Developing

32. 20552005 14 7 Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year 1955 0 Stabilization Triangle Currently projected path Flat path Historical emissions 2.0  2105 Easier CO 2 target ~850 ppm Tougher CO 2 target ~500 ppm The Stabilization Triangle O Interim Goals Today and for the interim goals, global per-capita emissions are ≈ 1 tC/yr. O

33. Developed Country Per capita Emissions far Exceed Developing Country Per Capita Emissions

34. OECD and non-OECD shares 50-year view SourceI Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September 2006, p.56 +60% -60% +140% +60%

35. GHG Flow Diagram: Global Emissions Source: WRI, Baumert et al, 2005

36. Potential technological options Efficient production and use of energy: coal plants (e.g., re- powering old inefficient plants and developing IGCC); vehicles (e.g., fuel cell cars) and reduced use of vehicles (e.g., mass transit and urban planning), buildings, and industries Fuel shift: coal to gas Renewable Energy and Fuels: Wind power; solar PV and solar thermal; small and large-scale hydropower; bio-energy CO 2 Capture and Storage: Capture CO 2 in the production of electricity followed by geological storage (e.g., IGCC – CCS) Nuclear fission: Nuclear power Forests and Agricultural Soils: Reduced deforestation; reforestation; afforestation; and conservation tillage Other GHGs: Methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons and tropospheric ozone precursors

37. Costs of Reducing Carbon Dioxide Emissions relative to sub-critical coal (life-cycle) A key challenge is to reduce the cost of IGCC and CCS, which are still pre-commercial

38. Baseline and low-carbon projected energy scenarios for non-OECD countries Baseline Baseline Low carbon scenario CO 2 would stabilize at about 450 ppm in the low carbon scenario, requiring an investment of ~$30 billion/year in electricity generation

39.  Only three sources of funding for mitigation are available: (i) voluntary actions, (ii) international grants, e.g., GEF (iii) carbon trading.  Resource levels and funding strategies limit GEF’s ability to scale up market transformation and bring-down capital costs of technologies for shift to a low carbon economy - to play a significant role in transitioning the world to a low-carbon economy would require an increase in funds by a factor of ten or more  Carbon trade is likely to confer the biggest flow of funds to developing countries - between US$20 and $120 billion per year, but requires a long-term global regulatory framework (i.e., a 2050 target) with differentiated responsibilities – with intermediate targets - new business models are needed  New financial instruments are required, especially to ensure market continuity post 2012 - EU has sent a vital signal by extending the time-frame of their carbon trading system Funding for mitigation activities

40.  International policy  A long-term (2030 – 2050) global regulatory framework, involving all major emitters, with an equitable allocation of responsibilities – with intermediate targets  Kyoto plus 5 years will not provide the right signals to the private sector or national governments  Expand range of eligible CDM activities, including avoided deforestation, green investment schemes, energy efficiency standards, and exploring sectoral and programmatic approach  Key challenges include engaging USA, China and India  Opposition by some OECD countries to provide financial assistance to rapidly developing countries, e.g.,China  Adoption of low-carbon technologies with an emphasis on energy efficiency, the commercialization of CCS and second generation bio-fuels increase investment in public and private sector energy R&Dincrease investment in public and private sector energy R&D Summary of the Major Mitigation Challenges

41. Adapting to Climate Change

42. Development Perspective on Adaptation The risks associated with a changing and more variable climate are increasing (e.g., storms, floods, droughts), resulting in both economic losses and loss of human life The risks associated with a changing and more variable climate are increasing (e.g., storms, floods, droughts), resulting in both economic losses and loss of human life Climate change is an additional risk in developing countries which are already stressed, adversely impacting on water resources, agriculture, human health, coastal zones and ecological systems Climate change is an additional risk in developing countries which are already stressed, adversely impacting on water resources, agriculture, human health, coastal zones and ecological systems Poverty reduction agenda: Failure to adapt adequately to climate variability and change is a major impediment to poverty reduction – chronic losses are as important as catastrophic losses Poverty reduction agenda: Failure to adapt adequately to climate variability and change is a major impediment to poverty reduction – chronic losses are as important as catastrophic losses Adaptation to climate change must be recognized as part of the development process and not separate from it – adaptation is a process Adaptation to climate change must be recognized as part of the development process and not separate from it – adaptation is a process A climate risk management approach: take account of the threats and opportunities arising from both current and future climate variability in project design A climate risk management approach: take account of the threats and opportunities arising from both current and future climate variability in project design The process must be country driven and focus on national needs and local priorities The process must be country driven and focus on national needs and local priorities

43. Cost of Adaptation  Estimates of the costs of inaction cover a huge range:  $10Bs to $100Bs per year in developing countries by mid century  GDP losses range up to about 10% for developing countries for a doubling of atmospheric CO 2  A preliminary assessment shows that tens of billions dollars per year of ODA & concessional finance investments are exposed to climate risks  Comprehensive project planning and additional investments to climate-proof development projects will require at least $1 billion per year  Primary public financial instruments available, which are technically adequate –but funds flowing through them need to be substantially increased  ODA – currently only a few percent directly for adaptation  GEF special funds for adaptation – rising to c. $100M pa  Adaptation Fund funded by a 2% tax on the CDM – < $100M pa  The political issue is who pays – industrialized or developing countries

44. The Political Situation

45. The Kyoto Protocol The Kyoto Protocol All industrialized governments, except the US and Australia have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, which contains: A commitment to reduce GHG emissions, on average, by about 5% between 2008-2012 relative to 1990 The flexibility mechanisms – carbon trading Land-use, land-use change and forestry activities (limited) Funding mechanisms to assist developing countries The US stated that the Kyoto Protocol was flawed policy because it was neither fair nor effective and not in the best interests of the US scientific uncertainties – Article 3 (precautionary principle) high compliance costs – inconsistent with IPCC ineffective without the participation of the large developing countries

46. Differentiated Obligations Differentiated Obligations It has argued by the US that the Kyoto Protocol is neither fair nor effective because developing countries are not obligated to reduce their emissions, i.e., its not in the self-interest of the US energy companies It has argued by the US that the Kyoto Protocol is neither fair nor effective because developing countries are not obligated to reduce their emissions, i.e., its not in the self-interest of the US energy companies Fairness - This is an equity issue - the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol will have to decide what is fair and equitable, recognizing that:Fairness - This is an equity issue - the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol will have to decide what is fair and equitable, recognizing that: about 80% of the total anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have been emitted from industrialized countries (US is currently about 25% of the global emissions – 36% of Annex I emissions); about 80% of the total anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have been emitted from industrialized countries (US is currently about 25% of the global emissions – 36% of Annex I emissions); per capita emissions in industrialized countries far exceed those from developing countries; per capita emissions in industrialized countries far exceed those from developing countries; developing countries do not have the financial, technological and institutional capability of industrialized countries to address the issue; and developing countries do not have the financial, technological and institutional capability of industrialized countries to address the issue; and increased use of energy is essential for poverty alleviation increased use of energy is essential for poverty alleviation Effectiveness - Long-term stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases cannot be achieved without global reductions, hence the issue is whom should do what in the short-term recognizing the long-term challengeEffectiveness - Long-term stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases cannot be achieved without global reductions, hence the issue is whom should do what in the short-term recognizing the long-term challenge

47. Beyond Kyoto Without the US taking real action to limit their GHG emissions it is doubtful that there will be a second commitment period – some OECD countries will withdraw and large developing countries, i.e., China and India will not be willing consider any commitmentsWithout the US taking real action to limit their GHG emissions it is doubtful that there will be a second commitment period – some OECD countries will withdraw and large developing countries, i.e., China and India will not be willing consider any commitments Without a commitment of governments to limit GHG emissions beyond 2012 (the end of the first commitment period) the carbon market will remain soft and the private sector is unlikely to enter in a meaningful mannerWithout a commitment of governments to limit GHG emissions beyond 2012 (the end of the first commitment period) the carbon market will remain soft and the private sector is unlikely to enter in a meaningful manner The real question for governments is whether to:The real question for governments is whether to: set an emissions target for a second commitment period (2013-2017) or whether to set a long-term stabilization target for climate change (e.g., 2 o C above the pre- industrial level) or some other long-term framework – a long-term target is needed to send the appropriate signal to the private sector and the carbon marketset an emissions target for a second commitment period (2013-2017) or whether to set a long-term stabilization target for climate change (e.g., 2 o C above the pre- industrial level) or some other long-term framework – a long-term target is needed to send the appropriate signal to the private sector and the carbon market this would require a global emissions target – the challenge would be to agree on intermediate emissions targets and an equitable allocation of emissions rightsthis would require a global emissions target – the challenge would be to agree on intermediate emissions targets and an equitable allocation of emissions rights

48. US Situation No meaningful action by US Administration No meaningful action by US Administration Bipartisan draft legislation in Congress – House and Senate Bipartisan draft legislation in Congress – House and Senate State action – California and NE States State action – California and NE States Evangelicals promoting action Evangelicals promoting action Most Presidential candidates pro-action Most Presidential candidates pro-action Major multi-national companies adopting voluntary targets Major multi-national companies adopting voluntary targets Movement in the right direction, but a long way to go

49. Overall Conclusions  Increased access to energy is critical for poverty alleviation and economic growth – hence a major challenge to engage China and India Climate change undermines development, environmental sustainability and the Millennium Development Goals Climate change undermines development, environmental sustainability and the Millennium Development Goals  There are cost-effective and equitable solutions, but political will and moral leadership is needed  The future is in our hands - we can limit changes in the Earth’s climate, but the changes in policies, practices and technologies required are substantial and not currently underway  Public amd private sector decision-makers need to take a longer-term perspective  Advances in science and technology are required, with the emphasis on multi-disciplinary research – S&T capacity must be strengthened in developing countries  The scientific community needs to learn to communicate better with civil society, decision-makers and the media

50. Directions for the World