1. Lost in Transition - Labour Market Entry Sequences of School Leavers in Europe Christian Brzinsky-Fay, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB) EPUNet Conference 2006, Barcelona

2. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 2 Research Review ► sequence analysis of school-to-work transitions (Scherer 2001; McVicar/Anyadike-Danes 2002) ► sequence types within life-course approach (Sackmann/Wingens 2003) ► transitional labour markets (Schmid 1998, 2002) & social risk management (Schmid/Schömann 2004) ► internal/external labour markets (ILM/OLM) (Marsden 1999; Shavit/Müller 1998) ► empirical analysis of coordination process between education system & labour market (Allmendinger 1989; Gangl 2003; Hannan/Raffe 1997; Hillmert 2002; Russell/O‘Connell; etc.)

3. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 3 Dataset & Basic Concepts ► monthly calendar data on labour market status ► time span: 1993-2000 ► categories: education, apprenticeship, employment, unemployment, inactivity ► excluded countries: Sweden, Netherlands, Luxemburg, Finland ► beginning of school-to-work transition: ► after leaving general education ► apprenticeship  education ► observation window: 5 years = 60 months ► left censoring: proxy variables (worked before etc.) ► indicators: volatility, integrative capability, high risk sequences

4. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 4 Hypotheses 1. Despite a high extent of cross-national variation all types of transition sequences appear in every country. 2. Countries, who are described as ILM systems, will show more changes between labour market statuses than those countries with OLM systems. 3. Countries with well established initial and/or further training systems will have more positive volatility than countries without these systems. 4. A high integrative capability exists in countries where the coordination process between education system and the labour market either is structured or emphasizes the temporal dimension of labour market integration. 5. Countries with a lower degree of coordination will have a higher share of high risk transition sequences.

5. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 5 Method: Sequence Analysis 3. compare sequences optimal matching 5. associate patterns to other variables e.g. regression models 4. group sequences cluster analysis 1. describe sequences aggregated measures 2. visualise sequences sequence index plots

6. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 6 Method: Optimal Matching substitution costs: 1 indel costs: 1 B E A T L E S S T O N E S - ------------- 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 = 7 7/7 = 1 B E A T L E S - S T O N E S --------------- 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 = 5 5/7  0.71 substitution costs: 1 indel costs: 1 B E A T L E S K I N K S - - ------------- 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 = 7 7/7 = 1 B E A T L E S - - K I N K S ------------- 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 = 6 6/7  0.86

7. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 7 aggregate characteristics of sequences I

8. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 8

9. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 9 monthly proportion of statuses by country

10. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 10 Sequences Order and Sequence Types

11. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 11 General Characteristics of Clusters

12. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 12 monthly proportion of statuses by cluster

13. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 13 sequence index plots by cluster

14. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 14 transition characteristics of clusters

15. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 15 appearance of clusters in countries

16. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 16 integrative capability & unemployment

17. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 17 high risk sequences & unemployment

18. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 18 Conclusions I ► method: ► computational explorative instrument (optimal matching) and grouping method (cluster analysis) to reduce complexity ► clusters: ► detour cluster is most common in European countries ► bridge and dropout doesn‘t appear in every country ► country-specific: failure for IT, GR, ES; express for UK; link for DK, IE; bridge for DE; return for BE ► problems: ► parallel statuses ► no ECHP anymore ► ILM-OLM dichotomy: ► explains only number of status changes

19. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 19 Conclusions II ► volatility: ► IE, DE, DK  highest share of changes between favourable statuses in countries with well established initial and/or further training system ► integrative capability: ► DE, IE, DK, UK  high share of integrative labour market entry sequences in countries with structured coordination or emphasis on temporal dimension of integration process ► high risk sequences: ► GR, IT, ES  high values; BE, DE, IE, UK  low values ► policy implications: ► European policies can be targeted to specific transition sequences across countries

20. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 20 Thank You for Your Attention!

21. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 21 references I ► Abbott, Andrew / Angela Tsay (2000): Sequence Analysis and Optimal Matching Methods in Sociology, in: Sociological Methods & Research 29 (1); pp. 3-33. ► Allmendinger, Jutta (1989): Educational Systems and Labor Market Outcomes, in: European Sociological Review 5 (3); pp. 231-250. ► Gangl, Markus (2003): The structure of labour market entry in Europe: a typological analysis, in: Walter Müller / Markus Gangl, Eds.: Transitions from education to work in Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press; pp. 95-116. ► Hannan, Damian F. / David Raffe et al. (1997): Cross-National Research on School to Work Transitions: An Analytical Framework, Paris, OECD. ► Hillmert, Steffen (2002): Labour market integration and institutions: an Anglo-German comparison, in: Work, Employment and Society 16 (4); pp. 675-701. ► MacIndoe, Heather / Andrew Abbott (2004): Sequence Analysis and Optimal Matching Techniques for Social Science Data, in: Melissa Hardy / Alan Bryman, Eds.: Handbook of Data Analysis. London / Thousand Oaks / New Dehli: Sage Publications; pp. 387- 406. ► Marsden, David (1999): A theory of Employment Systems. Micro-Foundations of Societal Diversity. Oxford: Oxford University Press. ► McVicar, Duncan / Michael Anyadike-Danes (2002): Predicting successful and unsuccessful transitions from school to work by using sequence methods, in: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 165 (2); pp. 317-334.

22. 8./9. May 2006Christian Brzinsky-Fay Folie 22 references II ► Russell, Helen / Philip O'Connell (2001): Getting a Job in Europe: The Transition from Unemployment to Work among Young People in Nine European Countries, in: Work, Employment & Society 15 (1); pp. 1-24. ► Sackmann, Reinhold / Matthias Wingens (2003): From Transitions to Trajectories. Sequence Types, in: Walter R. Heinz, Ed. Social Dynamics of the Life Course. Transitions, Institutions, and Interrelations. New York: Aldine de Gruyter; pp. 93-115. ► Scherer, Stefani (2001): Early Career Patterns: A Comparison of Great Britain and West Germany, in: European Sociological Review 17 (2); pp. 119-144. ► Schmid, Günther (1998): Transitional Labour Markets: A New European Employment Strategy. Berlin: Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB) (Discussion Paper FS I 98-206). ► Schmid, Günther (2002): Towards a Theory of Transitional Labour Markets, in: Günther Schmid / Bernard Gazier, Eds.: The Dynamics of Full Employment. Social Integration Through Transitional Labour Markets. Cheltenham/Northampton: Edward Elgar; pp. 151-195. ► Schmid, Günther (2006): Social Risk Management Through Transitional Labour Markets, in: Socio-Economic Review 4 (1); pp. 1-33. ► Schmid, Günther / Klaus Schömann (2004): Managing Social Risks Through Transitional Labour Markets. Towards A European Social Model. Amsterdam: SISWO/Institute for the Social Sciences (TLM.NET Working Paper 2004-01). ► Shavit, Yossi / Walter Müller, Eds. (1998): From School to Work: A Comparative Study of Educational Qualifications and Occupational Destinations. Oxford: Clarendon Press.