1. Knowledge Management for UEFA Champions League By Harsha Gunnam Hetal Mehta Nargis Memon Manish Wadhwa

2. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management2 TasksHarshaHetalNargisManish Initial Research Literature Review Data Extraction Database Creation Coefficient Analysis Ranking Analysis Trend Analysis Prediction of Winners Testing of Results Final Report & Presentation Individual Contributions Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion

3. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management3 Agenda Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting Findings IntroductionObjectivesProcessSourcesBasic FindingsInteresting FindingsConclusionFuture Work Conclusion

4. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management4 UEFA Champions League Competition System 1st qualifying round24 2nd qualifying round16+12 3rd qualifying round18+14 Group stage16+16 First knock-out round16 Quarter finals8 Semi-finals4 Final2 Introduction Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting Findings  UEFA - The governing body of football on the continent of Europe  Champions League –  Started in 1992  Most Prestigious Trophy in the Sport  Current Champion: AC Milan  Format – Future WorkConclusion

5. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management5 Identify the top three leagues for 2008-2009Identify top 4 clubs for the top 3 leaguesIdentify the home and away advantageIdentify the head-to-head probabilityIdentify possible array of winners for 2008-2009 Research Objectives Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion

6. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management6  Papahristodoulou, Christos, "Team Performance in UEFA Champions League 2005-06." Munich Personal RePEc Archive (2006) Unpublished, Paper #138  Barros, Carlos Pestana, Leach, Stephanie, “Performance evaluation of the English Premier Football League with data envelopment analysis.” Applied Economics Vol. 38 No. 12 (2006): 1449-1458  http://www.betinf.com/champ.htm http://www.betinf.com/champ.htm  Sports Betting Information  http://www.betstudy.com/soccer-stats/c/europe/uefa-champions-league/ http://www.betstudy.com/soccer-stats/c/europe/uefa-champions-league/  Online Betting Guide  http://en.uclpredictor.uefa.com/ http://en.uclpredictor.uefa.com/  Online Predictor Game Literature Review Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion

7. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management7 Research Design Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting Findings Excel Data Extraction Ranking Analysis Coefficient Analysis Top 3 Leagues Top 12 Teams Array of Winners Head-to-Head Probability Home & Away Advantage MySQL UEFA Data Source Future WorkConclusion

8. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management8 Data Sources Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting Findings  UEFA Data Source  http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/ http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/  Data collected over 6 seasons  2002-2008  Attributes - Future WorkConclusion

9. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management9 Basic Findings Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion Coefficient Analysis

10. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management10  Standard UEFA Calculations  Country Coefficient = Number of Points/Number of Teams  Calculation Accuracy: 100%  Team Coefficient = Number of Points + 33% of Country Coefficient  Calculation Accuracy: 100% Coefficient Analysis Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion

11. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management11 Basic Findings Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion Ranking Analysis

12. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management12 Predicted Ranking Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting Findings  Accuracy: 100%  Years Considered: 2003-2008  Country Ranking = Summation of 5 years of Country Coefficients  Team Ranking = Summation of 5 years of Team Coefficients Future WorkConclusion

13. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management13 Ranking Analysis - Leagues Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting Findings  Observations:  Spain, England and Italy: Top three leagues for the past six seasons  Romania: Rapid Improvement Future WorkConclusion

14. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management14 Top Leagues & Teams Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion Spain FC Barcelona Real Madrid Sevilla Valencia England Arsenal Chelsea Liverpool Manchester United Italy AC Milan AS Roma Internazionale Juventus

15. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management15 Ranking Analysis - Teams Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting Findings  Observations:  Consistent Team: FC Barcelona  Rapid Improvement: Chelsea Future WorkConclusion

16. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management16 Probability Analysis Interesting Findings Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion

17. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management17  Technique:  Naive Bayes  Observations:  Strength: 6 Teams  Weakness: FC Barcelona Head-to-Head Probability Analysis Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion

18. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management18  Technique:  Comparison of the signs of the difference between the win probability and the lose probability  Matched signs – Correct Prediction  Different signs – Incorrect Prediction  Assumption  Difference of zero (win-loss) favors both ways  Accuracy: 80% Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting Findings TeamOpponent2003-072008Prediction AC MilanCeltic0.50OK AC MilanShakhtar Donetsk11OK ArsenalSparta Praha11OK AS RomaDinamo Kiev1NOT OK AS RomaManchester United0-0.75OK AS RomaReal Madrid-0.51NOT OK ChelseaValencia0.51OK FC BarcelonaCeltic0.51OK Manchester UnitedOlympique Lyon00.5OK Real MadridOlympiakos Piraeus0.5 OK Head-to-Head Probability Testing Future WorkConclusion

19. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management19 Home-Away Analysis Interesting Findings Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion

20. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management20  Technique:  Mapped advantage on the basis of strength.  Strength level decided by the difference in goals scored  Very Strong – Win with a difference of 2 or more goals  Strong – Win with a difference of 1 goal  Weak – Draw or lose with a difference of 1 goal  Very Weak – Lose with a difference of 2 or more goals Home – Away Analysis Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion

21. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management21  Observations:  Strongest Home Team: AC Milan  Weakest Home Team: Real Madrid  Strongest Visiting Team: Liverpool  Weakest Visiting Team: Chelsea Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting Findings Home – Away Analysis Future WorkConclusion

22. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management22 Winners Analysis Interesting Findings Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion

23. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management23  Technique:  Assigned values to strength levels  Aggregated the values of the strength levels  Team Win Probability = (Aggregated Strength Value * Probability) / Number of Matches Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting Findings Prediction of Winners Future WorkConclusion

24. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management24  Dataset considered – 2003-2007  Accuracy:  Home Win: 90%  Away Win: 100% Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion Testing of Final Prediction

25. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management25 Good visiting teams have a better chance at the trophySports knowledge can be transferred from tacit to explicitField with a wide scope for researchGood career choice – Sports Consultant Conclusion Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion

26. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management26 Extended data setRound level analysisPlayer level analysisTeam strategy analysisConsideration of UEFA Cup Sports BettingSports Consulting Applications Future Work Applications & Future Work Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion

27. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management27 References Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion  Papahristodoulou, Christos, "Team Performance in UEFA Champions League 2005- 06." Munich Personal RePEc Archive (2006) Unpublished, Paper #138  Barros, Carlos Pestana, Leach, Stephanie, “Performance evaluation of the English Premier Football League with data envelopment analysis.” Applied Economics Vol. 38 No. 12 (2006): 1449-1458  Websites:  http://www.betinf.com/champ.htmhttp://www.betinf.com/champ.htm  http://www.betstudy.com/soccer-stats/c/europe/uefa-champions-league/http://www.betstudy.com/soccer-stats/c/europe/uefa-champions-league/  http://en.uclpredictor.uefa.com/http://en.uclpredictor.uefa.com/  http://www.uefa.com/competitions/ucl/index.htmlhttp://www.uefa.com/competitions/ucl/index.html  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uefa_Champions_Leaguehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uefa_Champions_League  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes_theoremhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes_theorem  http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/  http://www.soccerbase.com/http://www.soccerbase.com/  http://europeancups.altervista.org/http://europeancups.altervista.org/

28. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management28 Thank You Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion Thank You Dr. Hsinchun Chen Yulei Zhang (Gavin) Yan Dang (Mandy)

29. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management29 Questions Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion

30. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management30 Head-to-Head Probability Analysis Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion

31. 6/10/2015MIS 580: Knowledge Management31 Head-to-Head Probability Analysis Objectives Process Basic Findings Introduction Sources Interesting FindingsFuture WorkConclusion FC Barcelona Vs Others Liverpool Vs Others