1. Figure 2: US Real Returns S&P500 (Monthly, Feb 1915 – April 2004)

2. Figure 1: US Real Stock Index S&P500 (Jan 1915 – April 2004)

3. Figure 3: US Real Returns S&P500 (Monthly, Feb 1915 – April 2004)

4. Figure 4: Conditional Variance, GARCH(1,1) Model (US : Feb 1915 – April 2004)

5. Figure 5: Mean and Standard Deviation: Annual averages, US Real Returns (post 1947) Standard deviation of returns (percent) Average Return (percent) 0 48121620242832 4 8 12 16 Government Bonds Corporate Bonds T-Bills S&P500 Value weighted, NYSE Equally weighted, NYSE NYSE decile size sorted portfolios

6. Figure 6: One Year Excess Returns

7. Figure 7: Five Year Excess Returns

8. Figure 8: Price-Dividend Ratio: USA (1947 – 2002)

9. Figure 9: One-Year Excess Returns and P-D ratio Annual US Data (1947 – 2002) 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1974 1954 1995 1996