1. Copyright Jack H. Arabian 7/28/05 1 COCOMO Process Mapping And Discrete Event Simulation For Defect Costing And Scheduling Estimation Jack H. Arabian

2. Copyright Jack H. Arabian 7/28/05 2 COCOMO  Introduction  Requirements  Procedure  Outcome  Analysis  Live Demo  Future Work

3. Copyright Jack H. Arabian 7/28/05 3 COCOMO Technique: Process mapping combined with Discrete Event Simulation New opportunities to create true System of Systems (SoS) models Predict future outcomes by creating scenarios For engineering processes To detect defects To predict/estimate costs and scheduling. Introduction

4. Copyright Jack H. Arabian 7/28/05 4 COCOMO Requirements Examine/document engineering defect detection process. Collect/collate the parameters of each step Use statistical distributions for non-constant, time- varying parameters. Calculate cost and schedule to compare with past performance. Time-simulate the process with known “as-is” parameters Create required scenarios with “what-if” parameters

5. Copyright Jack H. Arabian 7/28/05 5 COCOMO Simplified Process Map Import Generated KSLOC Detect Defects Count & Document In-Phase Defects Out of Phase Defects Identified and Processed in Later Phases Collect/ Collate All Defects Solve Defect Problem Implement and Review Release Estimate Future Costs and Schedule Generalized Software Defects Detection Cost and Schedule Estimation Process In-Phase Defect Out-of-Phase Defect To Phases Following

6. Copyright Jack H. Arabian 7/28/05 6 COCOMO Completed Process Map (Expandable for legibility)

7. Copyright Jack H. Arabian 7/28/05 7 COCOMO Typical Sub-Model

8. Copyright Jack H. Arabian 7/28/05 8 COCOMO This Activity has this dialogue box Multiple tabs for categories of information Multiple tabs for categories of information Variable time, “Q” for different scenarios Sub-Model Activity

9. Copyright Jack H. Arabian 7/28/05 9 COCOMO  Introduction  Requirements  Procedure  Outcome  Analysis  Live Demo  Future Work

10. Copyright Jack H. Arabian 7/28/05 10 COCOMO Scenario Outcome/Analysis

11. Copyright Jack H. Arabian 7/28/05 11 COCOMO Live Demo Demonstration of process mapping and simulation shows dynamic, graphic animation of the flow of defects from one phase to another. A dashboard during each run displays relevant variables in real time to show performance in defect prediction and estimation capabilities for software development cost and schedule.

12. Copyright Jack H. Arabian 7/28/05 12 COCOMO This model is generic to many processes Hardware defects in a manufacturing production line Quality Assurance and Six Sigma practices Business (order process, Help desk) Finance (transactions) Healthcare (claims processing) Aerospace (radar tracking, checklist, countdown, communications, command and control) Shipbuilding (welding, supply chain). Future Work

13. Copyright Jack H. Arabian 7/28/05 13 COCOMO Thank you Q&A