Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Farmland Values & Cash Rent Craig Dobbins. 2011 Purdue Land Value Survey Cash Rent Results.

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Farmland Values & Cash Rent Craig Dobbins. 2011 Purdue Land Value Survey Cash Rent Results."— Presentation transcript:

1 Farmland Values & Cash Rent Craig Dobbins

2 2011 Purdue Land Value Survey Cash Rent Results

3 Average Quality Cash Rent, 1975 - 2011

4 Cash Rent Comparison 2002 - 2006 & 2007 - 2011

5 Cash rent per bu. – Average soil

6 Preliminary 2011 Purdue Land Value Survey – Land Value Results

7 Average Quality Land Value, 1970 - 2011

8 Comparison of Change in Farmland Value 2002 – 2006 & 2007 - 2011

9 Farmland Value per Bu. of Corn Average Land

10 Value/Rent multiple – Average land

11 2012 Projections - Prepared August 10, 2011 ItemRotation CornRotation Soybeans Per acrePer bu.Per acrePer bu. Yield16149 Price$5.90 $12.40 Direct payment$26.00$0.16$14.00$0.29 Gross Revenue$976$6.06$622$12.70 Production cost$462$2.87$246$5.02 Contribution margin$514$3.19$376$7.67 Machinery overhead$80$0.50$80$1.63 Labor$39$0.24$39$0.80 Return to land & risk$395$2.45$257$5.24 2011 Cash rent – average land $187$1.16$187$3.82 Profit $208$1.29$70$1.42

12 New Price Plateau Corn ($/bu.)Soybeans ($/bu.) $6.70$17.56 $4.60$10.58 $3.00$7.51 Source: Dr. Scott Irwin

13 New Price Plateau Item Rotation CornRotation Rotation Soybeans Per acre Yield16149 Price$4.60$10.58 Direct payments$26.00$14.00 Gross Revenue$767$532 Production cost$468$246 Contribution margin$299$286 Machinery & labor overhead, & 2011 rent $306 Loss $7.00$13.50$20.00 No direct payments $33.50

14 Farmland Value ScenarioReturn to landValue/income multiple Farmland value Continue estimated 2012 $34030$10,200 New price plateau$17430$5,220

15 Annual Percent Change in Average Land 1972 - 2011

16 Continue Higher Strong demand for corn from the ethanol industry because of biofuel mandates Strong soybean export demand 2011 U.S. corn and soybean crop that is average or below average Moderate increases in input costs for corn and soybeans, keeping crop production margins well above historic average Low long-term interest rates Little change in the amount of land available for sale

17 Steady or Decline Sharp decline in corn and/or soybean export demand Sudden change in the U.S. policy away from providing biofuel subsidies and mandating usage Sharp rise in interest rates because of a downgrade in the credit rating of U.S. government debt obligations or increased inflation fears Exceptionally large 2011 corn and soybean crop Sharp rise in crop input prices reducing crop production margins Further slowing of world growth because of sovereign debt problems, including the U.S. Strong supply response resulting from new capital investments in agricultural production U.S. recession Some combination of the above or some unknown development

Download ppt "Farmland Values & Cash Rent Craig Dobbins. 2011 Purdue Land Value Survey Cash Rent Results."

Similar presentations

Ads by Google