1. Probabilistic thinking – part 1 Nur Aini Masruroh

2. Events  Event is a distinction about some states of the world  Example:  Whether the next person entering the room is a beer drinker  The date of the next general election  Whether it will be raining tonight  Our next head of department  Etc

3. Clarity test  When we identify an event, we have in mind what we meant. But will other people know precisely what you mean?  Even you may not have precise definition of what you have in mind  To avoid ambiguity, every event should pass the clarity test  Clarity test: to ensure that we are absolutely clear and precise about the definition of every event we are dealing with in a decision problem  The clarity test is conducted by submitting our definition of each event to a clairvoyant  A clairvoyant is a hypothetical being who is:  Competent and trustworthy  Knows the outcome of any past and future event  Knows the value of any physically defined quantity both in the past and future  Has infinite computational (mental) power and is able to perform any reasoning and computation instantly and without any effort

4. Clarity test (cont’d)  Passing the clarity test:  If and only if the clairvoyant can tell its outcome without any further judgment  Example:  The next person entering this room is a beer drinker What is a beer drinker? What is a beer?  The next person entering this room is a graduate What is a graduate?

5. Possibility tree  Single event tree  Example: event “the next person entering this room is a businessman”  Suppose B represents a businessman and B’ otherwise,

6. Possibility tree  Two-event trees  Simultaneously consider several events  Example: event “the next person entering this room is a businessman” and event “the next person entering this room is a graduate” can be jointly considered

7. Reversing the order of events in a tree  In the previous example, we have considered the distinctions in the order of “businessman” then “graduate”, i.e., B to G.  The same information can be expressed with the events in the reverse order, i.e., G to B.

8. Multiple event trees  We can jointly consider three events businessman, graduate, and gender.

9. Using probability to represent uncertainty Probability:  Frequentist view  Probabilities are fundamentally dispositional properties of non- deterministic physical systems  Probabilities are viewed as long-run frequencies of events  This is the standard interpretation used in classical statistics  Subjective (Bayesian) view  Probabilities are representations of our subjective degree of belief  Probabilities in general are not necessarily ties to any physical or process which can be repeated indefinitely

10. Assigning probabilities to events  To assign probabilities, it depends on our state of information about the event  Example: information relevant to assessment of the likelihood that the next person entering the room is a businessman might include the followings:  There is an alumni meeting outside the room and most of them are businessman  You have made arrangement to meet a friend here and she to your knowledge is not a businessman. She is going to show up any moment.  Etc  After considering all relevant background information, we assign the likelihood that the next person entering the room is a businessman by assigning a probability value to each of the possibilities or outcomes

11. Marginal and conditional probabilities  In general, given information about the outcome of some events, we may revise our probabilities of other events  We do this through the use of conditional probabilities  The probability of an event X given specific outcomes of another event Y is called the conditional probability X given Y  The conditional probability of event X given event Y and other background information ξ, is denoted by p(X|Y, ξ) and is given by

12. Factorization rule for joint probability

13. Changing the order of conditioning  Suppose in the previous tree we have There is no reason why we should always conditioned G on B. suppose we want to draw the tree in the order G to B Need to flip the tree!

14. Flipping the tree  Graphical approach  Change the ordering of the underlying possibility tree  Transfer the elemental (joint) probabilities from the original tree to the new tree  Compute the marginal probability for the first variable in the new tree, i.e., G. We add the elemental probabilities that are related to G 1 and G 2 respectively.  Compute conditional probabilities for B given G  Bayes’ theorem  Doing the above tree flipping is already applying Bayes’theorem

15. Bayes’ Theorem  Given two uncertain events X and Y. Suppose the probabilities p(X|ξ) and p(Y|X, ξ) are known, then

16. Probabilistic dependency or relevance  Let  A be an event with n possible outcomes a i, i=1,…,n  B be an event with m possible outcomes b j,j=1,…,m  Event A is said to be probabilistically dependent on event B if p(A|b j, ξ) ≠ p(A|b k, ξ) for some j ≠ k  The conditional probability of A given B is different for different outcomes or realizations of event B. we also say that B is relevant to A  Event A is said to be probabilistically independent on event B if p(A|b j, ξ) = p(A|b k, ξ) for all j = k  The conditional probability of A given B is the same for all outcomes or realizations of event B. we also say that B is irrelevant to A  In fact, if A is independent of B, then p(A|B, ξ) = p(A|ξ)  Intuitively, independence means knowing the outcome of one event does not provide any information on the probability of outcomes of the other event

17. Joint probability distribution of independent events  In general, the joint probability distribution for any two uncertain events A and B is p(A, B|ξ)=p(A|B, ξ)p(B| ξ)  If A and B are independent, then since p(A|B,ξ)=p(A| ξ), we have p(A, B|ξ)=p(A|ξ) p(B|ξ)  The joint probability of A and B is simply the product of their marginal probabilities  In general, the joint probability for n mutually independent events is p(X 1, X 2, …, X n |ξ)=p(X 1 |ξ) p(X 2 |ξ)… p(X n-1 |ξ) p(X n |ξ)

18. Conditional independence or relevance  Suppose given 2 events, A and B, and they are found to be not independent  Introduce event C with 2 outcomes, c1 and c2  If C=c 1 is true, and we have p(A|B, c 1, ξ)=p(A|c 1, ξ)  If C=c 2 is true, we have p(A|B, c 2, ξ)=p(A|c 2, ξ)  Then we say that event A is conditionally independent of event B given event C  Definition (Conditional Independence): given 3 distinct events A, B, and C, if p(A|B, c k, ξ)=p(A|c k, ξ) for all k, that is the conditional probability table (CPT) for A given B and C repeats for all possible realizations of C, then we say that A and B are conditional independent given C, and denote by

19. Conditional independence (cont’d)  If then p(A|B, C, ξ)=p(A|C, ξ)  Example: Given the following conditional probabilities: p(a 1 |b 1, c 1 )= 0.9p(a 2 |b 1, c 1 )= 0.1 p(a 1 |b 2, c 1 )= 0.9 p(a 2 |b 2, c 1 )= 0.1 p(a 1 |b 1, c 2 )= 0.8p(a 2 |b 1, c 2 )= 0.2 p(a 1 |b 2, c 2 )= 0.8 p(a 2 |b 2, c 2 )= 0.2 we conclude that  Note that A is not (marginally) independent of B unless we can show that p(a1|b1) = p(a1|b2) with more information

20. Join probability distribution of conditional probability distribution  Recall, by factorization rule, the joint probability for A, B, and C is p(A, B, C|ξ)= p(A| B, C, ξ)p(B|C, ξ)p(C| ξ)  If A is independent of B given C, then since p(A| B, C, ξ) = p(A|C, ξ) we have p(A, B, C|ξ)= p(A| C, ξ)p(B|C, ξ)p(C| ξ)

21. To be continued… See you next week!