1. Assignment Read course PowerPoint file: MBD 2 Proj1.pptx (Slides 21-34)

2. Trend Lines Uses historical data Find an equation that fits data Graph data and add a trend line Graph data using XY (scatter) Select “Scatter with only markers” graph

3. Trend Lines Graph should be a collection of points Right click on any point Select “Add Trendline” Select type of trend line

4. Trend Lines

5. Different options - Type of trend line - Name of trend line - Forecast forward and backward - Display equation - Display R-squared value (close to 1)

6. Trend Lines Ex. Suppose the number of students at the University of Arizona since 1990 is given by the following table. Fit several trend lines to the data. Use each trend line to predict the number of students in the years 2004 and 2020. Years since 1990Students at UA 024,155 226,872 429,119 633,482 837,004 1040,653

7. Trend Lines Linear: Approx. 46,956 students in 2004 Approx. 73,756 students in 2020

8. Trend Lines Quadratic: Approx. 49,976 students in 2004 Approx. 100,478 students in 2020

9. Trend Lines Exponential: Approx. 50,493 students in 2004 Approx. 117,710 students in 2020

10. Trend Lines Using forecasting as a predictor

11. Trend Lines Questions to consider: What trend line(s) should you use if you are not told? Are estimates using trend lines reliable?