1. Alejandro López-González University of Leon (Spain) alejandro.lopez@unileon.es Maria-José Piñeira-Mantiñán University of Santiago de Compostela (Spain) mariajose.pineira@usc.es URBAN DYNAMICS AND REAL-ESTATE SPECULATION: THE IMPACT ON THE URBAN AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC AXIS (GALICIA,SPAIN). IGU Canterbury Meeting Urban Geography Commission Emerging Urban Transformations Canterbury Christ Church University August 14-20, 2011 Project: System of indicators for the analysis of metropolitan and urban dynamics in Spain at the beginning of XXI Century. Ministry of Science and Technology (CSO2010-16298)

2. The context in Spain Real estate market =one of the principal vehicles of capital accumulation of neoliberal town planning. 1997-2006 : 5.5 millions of houses. Annual ratio during ten years of 13.3 houses for every 1,000 inhabitants. Autonomous Regions: Laws by the System of Land and Urban Arrangement, & Territorial Plans.  Plans are useless  The most important: benefits generated by construction activity.

4. The resoult... In the background:  Town-planning politics: entire space was building land. In Galicia: rural building land.  Companies are those who control and use the public administrations for their own benefit.  The building land was bought by financial institutions.  The healthy economic situation of the country and low interest rates encouraged the purchase of apartments by the population.  Important changes in infrastructure, transport, and information technologies and communication.  Citizens have not taken part in the design of the city.

5. Housing Market in Galicia Percentage of stock over total stock by Autonomous Community Autonomous CommunityHousing Stock (%) Valencia Community19,35 Andalucia16,33 Catalonia15,03 Castilla-La Mancha7,83 Madrid7,43 Canarias Islands5,95 Galicia5,71 Murcia4,39 Aragon2,68 Castilla and Leon2,46 Baleares Islands2,44 Vasc Country1,82 Asturias1,71 Rioja1,38 Navarra0,77 Extremadura0,53 Cantabria0,42

6. Method & Sources Prices: values of use and change Quantities: three series of flow information  Housing censuses  Work project starts-Home visas.  Work licenses  Housing transactions Main urban cities Small cities Main High Capacity Roads

7. There are delays that determine the supply and demand analysis T: number of transactions L: housings as a consequence of work licenses granted V: Home Visas K: the delays (that can acquire the value 0 if both series are simultaneous, 1 if the explanatory variable precedes by one year the explained one and 2 if the delay is two years) in a municipality i and in one year t Relation Licenses-Transactions. R 2 (2004-2010): 0.379-0.741 when K=0 0.309-0.823 when K=1 0.525-0.915 when K=2 Relation Licenses-Work project Starts. R 2 (2002-2010): 0.631-0.870 when K=0 0.435-0.852 when K=1 0.201-0.742 when K=2

9. The dynamism of the urban areas in the Atlantic Axis Evolution of housing starts, work licenses and housing transactions

12. Efficiency of the housing market T: housing transactions during the current year L: the work licenses conceded two years ago. The results are always higher than 0, reaching a situation of equilibrium when the efficiency rate is equal to 1

14. Thank You IGU Canterbury Meeting Urban Geography Commission Emerging Urban Transformations Canterbury Christ Church University August 14-20, 2011

16. (…)The streets, named names of painters, are littered with gleaming banks where no one sits down and traffic signals that require yield. Who? The only sign of life are ubiquitous posters for sale. They hang on every front and has not put the builder, but their buyers (…)