1. A DECADE OF PROGRESS : FROM EARTHQUAKE KINEMATICS TO DYNAMICS Raúl Madariaga Laboratoire de Géologie, Ecole Normale Supérieure

2. At the beginning...

4. Earthquake Kinematics 1.Elastic model + attenuation 2.. Dislocation model 3.. Modeling program 4.. Seismic data Slip model Rupture process Parkfield 2004 (after Liu et al 2006) inversion modeling

5. Wave propagation around and on a fault Parkfield 2004 Kinematic model by Liu, Custodio and Archuleta (2006) Modeling by Finite Differences Staggered grid Thin B.C. Full 4th order in space No damping dx=100m dt=0.01 Hz Computed up to 3 Hz Few hours in intel linux cluster

6. A very simplified version of Liu et al (2006) model After K. Sesetyan, E. Durukal, R. Madariaga and M. Erdik Full 3D velocity model 65 km up to 60 km Resolution power up to 3 Hz yet data resolved only 0.3 Hz !

7. Parkfield 2004 Data high pass filtered to 1 Hz. Synthetics computed For the slip model of Liu et al up to 3Hz On a 100 m grid Structure from Chen Ji 2005

8. Earthquake Quasidynamics modeling From Fukuyama and Mikumo (1993)

9. Earthquake dynamics Slip is due to stress relaxation under the control of friction Slip evolution is controlled by geometry and stress relaxation

10. Earthquake Dynamics 1.Elastic model + attenuation 2.. Stress model 4.. Modeling program 5.. Seismic data Landers 1992 (after OMA, 1997) modeling 3.. Friction law inversion

12. Wald and Heaton, 1992Peyrat Olsen Madariaga, 2001

13. Computed and observed accelerograms Landers 28/06/92

14. Olsen et al, 97 Bouchon, 97 Ide and Takeo, 97 Peyrat et al '01 Ill possedness of the inverse problem, the hidden assumptions

15. Three inverted models that fit the data equally well Peyrat, Olsen, Madariaga

16. Global Energy Balance Seismologists mesure E s directly (still difficult) Estimate  W c from seismic moment (easily measured) L = length scale S = surface E s = radiated energy  W s = strain energy change G c = surface energy K t = Kostrov's term L Ws Ws

17. Main result Gc is large w.r.t radiation For Landers: Moment Mo ~ 10 20 Nm Radiated Energy: E s ~10 15 J Surface S~10 9 m 2 Energy spent in fracture: Gc S ~10 15 J Strain Energy change:  W s ~10 16 J Similar result for Kobe (Ide and Takeo,1997)

18. Red is 20 MJ/m 2 KappaESES An open, but essential question is how to quantify energy release Asperity Barrier 1 Barrier 2

20. Scaling of energy Landers G c ~ E s ~ DW ~ 10 6 J/m 2 Sumatra G c ~ E s ~ DW ~ 10 7 J/m 2 W~150 km W~15 km

21.  =  U/G c 1 1.2  -1 = E s /G c 0 0.2 Tsunami EQ Kunlun EQ How to reduce speed? increase G c v r = 0 v r > v s What controls rupture propagation?

22. Dynamic rupture of the Landers earthquake of June 28, 1992 Aochi et al 2003 following Peyrat et al 2001

23. . BB Seismic waves Hifi Seismic waves Different scales in earthquake dynamics Macroscale Mesoscale Microscale Steady state mechanics vrvr (< 0.3 Hz  5 km) (>0.5 Hz  <2 km) (non-radiative) ( < 100 m)

24. o Seismic data has increased dramatically in quality and number. o Opens the way to better kinematic and dynamic models o Earthquake Modeling has become a well developed research field o There are a number of very fundamental problems that need careful study (geometry, slip distribution, etc) o Main remaining problem: non-linear dynamic inversion CONCLUSIONS

25. No surface rupture observation M w 6.6~6.8 Pure left-lateral strike slip event Hypocentral depth poorly constrained Tottori accelerograms have absolute time Hypocentre determined directly from raw records The 2000 Western Tottori earthquake

26. Kinematic inversion of Tottori earthquake Small slip around the hypocentre Slip increases towards the upper northern edge of the fault Velocity Waveforms EW component T05 S02 OK015 T07 OK05 OK04 S15 S03 T06 T08 T09 Good fit at nearfield stations (misfit=3.4 L 2 )

27. Circular crack dynamics Starts from Initial patch Longitudinal stopping phase Transverse stopping phase Stopping phase (S wave) Slip rate Slip Stress change Fully spontaneous rupture propagation under slip weakening friction Stress drop

28. P st.phase Rayleigh S Slip rate Slip Rupture process for a circular crack The rupture process is controlled by wave propagation!

29. Computational grid Inversion grid The main problem with dynamic inversion Inversion grid has about 30 elements (degrees of freedom) Computational grid has > 1000 elements This method was used by Peyrat and Olsen

30. Inversion of a simple geometrical initial stress field and/or friction laws Based on an idea by Vallée et Bouchon (2003) An ellipse has only 7 independent Degrees of freedom (position, angle, axes, stress level) Finite difference grid is independent of inverted object and has many more (>1000) degrees of freedom.

31. The initial stress field Rupture is forced to start from an asperity located at 18 km in depth Then we modify the elliptical slip distribution until the rupture propagates and the seismograms are fitted Slip rate Slip Stress change Dynamic modelling of Tottori t=2s t=4s t=6s t=8s

32. Main Results Velocity waveforms fit observations less well than the kinematic model. For each station both amplitude and arrival phases match satisfactorily T05 S04 OK015 T07 OK05 OK04 S15 S03 T06 T08 T09 Velocity Waveform fitting for EW component

33. Influence of different rupture patches S15 T09 Final slip distribution NS component The stopping phase (red) exerts the primary control on the waveform real synth real synth

34. Outlook Two approaches to study the rupture process The non linear kinematic inversion gives a very good wavefits controlled by a diagonal stopping phase. The dynamic rupture inversion allows to fit very well both amplitude and arrival phases. The horizontal stopping phase controls the waveforms. A dynamic inversion with a slip distribution controlled by 2 elliptical patches is in progress.

37. Far field radiation from circular crack Spectrum Displacement pulse 4s 0.25 Hz

38. Example of velocity data processing Time measured w/r to origin time P S Data integrated and filtered between 0.1 - 5 Hz We relocate the hypocentre close to 14 km depth

39. Example from Northern Chile Tarapacá earthquake Iquique From Peyrat et al, 2006 13 June 2005 M=7.8 Mo = 5x10 20 Nm

40. 2003 Tarapaca earthquake recorded by the IQUI accelerometer Thanks to Rubén Boroschev U de Chile IQUI displacement IQUI ground velocity IQUI energy flux What are them? Accelerogram filtered from 0.01 to 1 Hz and integrated Stopping phase 0 4020 10cm/s 18cm 60

41. Spectrum of Tarapaca earthquake displacement spectral amplitude  -2 slope 20s 0.2