1. Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Regional and decadal analysis of climate change induced extreme hydrometeorological stresses informs adaptation and mitigation policies Auroop R Ganguly Oak Ridge National Laboratory Email: gangulyar@ornl.govgangulyar@ornl.gov 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change 89 th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society January 15 th 2009; Phoenix, AZ, USA ORNL Co-Authors: Esther S Parish Nagendra Singh Karsten Steinhaeuser David J Erickson III Marcia Branstetter Anthony W King Erin J Middleton A Climate Change War Game

2. 2Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy 89 th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona A role playing exercise –Four largest emitters discuss climate policy –UN Secretary General presses for emission target –Players balance national interests and global goal A Climate Change War Game Description The Players –Diverse backgrounds  Climate scientists  Security strategists  Environmental policy experts  Business leaders –Forty national delegates  United States  European Union  China  India –UN Team  Center for a New American Security  John Podesta: UN Secretary General  UN Sec. Gen.’s Science Team  Rest of the world (observer status) Coverage –The journal Nature (Blogs, News) –ABC News Documentary –Videocon by IPCC chairman Pachauri –Prominent players from US, EU, Asia John Podesta (left) of CNAS, the UN secretary general in the game, was Clinton’s White House chief of staff and led Obama’s transition team

3. 3Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy 89 th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona  Define climate change for national security  Educate players with diverse backgrounds  Observe/understand negotiation process A Climate Change War Game Objectives ORNL provided the climate science

4. 4Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy 89 th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona The year is 2015…  Natural Hazards / Climate Refugees –Environmental Refugees from Bangladesh –Category 5 Hurricane in Miami  Climate Change is “real” –Impacts on lives and economy –Public calls for action  UN Secretary General calls for action –2012 Copenhagen provides background –Urgent meeting of four largest emitters –Prelude to major global agreement A Climate Change War Game The Premise Photos from http://climateinteractive.wordpress.com/2008/09/24/supporting-the-clout-and-climate-change-war-game/http://climateinteractive.wordpress.com/2008/09/24/supporting-the-clout-and-climate-change-war-game/

5. 5Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy 89 th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona A Climate Change War Game Publicity Nature Blogs: http://blogs.nature.com/news/blog/events/climate_war_game/ “Much as the "hockey stick graph" became an icon for global warming itself, the "Angry Red Chart" became a symbol of the science that was driving negotiations back in the year 2015” (Jeff Tollefson, Nature Blogs)

6. 6Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy 89 th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona UN Secretary General charges the country delegates with four tasks  The Four Negotiation Areas –Natural (e.g., water) resources scarcity –Hazards and humanitarian aid –Migration and population shifts –Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions  Adaptation & Mitigation –Adaptation: “Manage the Unavoidable” –Mitigation: “Avoid the Unmanageable” CNAS Website for Climate Change War Game: http://www.cnas.org/node/149

7. 7Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy 89 th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona http://www.ornl.gov/knowledgediscovery/WarGaming/ ORNL Climate Change WarGaming Website

8. 8Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy 89 th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona Climate Science Support by ORNL  CCSM3 Climate Model: One of the primary climate models used for IPCC AR4  IPCC SRES A1FI (fossil fuel intensive) scenario: Initially considered “extreme”, recent emissions agree with A1FI  Global Projections: 1.4 o spatial grids with global coverage; Daily to 6-hourly for 2000–2099; T85 Gaussian Grid  Regional Assessments: Focus on four regions which are the largest emitters for the four sets of players  Decadal Projections: Data analysis for decadal change (e.g., change in decadal averages or extremes)  Climate Extremes: Extreme hydrometeorological stresses or events caused or exacerbated by climate change

9. 9Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy 89 th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona Global Assessments: The 'Angry Red Chart' Courtesy Nature Blog (Tollefson) CNAS (John Podesta) Pew Center (Gulledge) CNAS (Sharon Burke) Nature Blogs

10. 10Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy 89 th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

11. 11Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy 89 th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

12. 12Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy 89 th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona Regional Extreme Events

13. 13Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy 89 th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona

14. 14Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy 89 th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona Regional Extreme Events

15. 15Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy 89 th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona Regional Extreme Impacts

16. 16Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy 89 th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona Plausible Policy-Relevant Insights  China: Water scarcity and food stress, especially in the East  India: Water stress from de- glaciation & mega-delta floods  US: Midwest heat waves; Water stress in West (dry & warm)  Europe: Regional warming; Water stress in Spain & Portugal  Water emerges as the central issue for impacts Insights are exemplary rather than exhaustive and rather preliminary. Refer AMS abstract and README in ORNL’s climate wargaming website.

17. 17Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy 89 th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona Follow-up A1FI/CCSM3 climate insights Higher mean, but greater geographic variability and uncertainty, of change and extremes  Statistically significant increase in global temperatures compared to other scenarios in mid to late 21 st century  Larger temperature changes and more intense heat waves in most regions of the globe in the 21 st century  Significant bias and variance at regional scales even for decadal averaged statistics of change and extremes  Uncertainty computed from recent projections and observations larger (statistically significant) than ensembles  Clearer signal for temperature change and related extremes but uncertainty dominates for hydrology Manuscripts under preparation

18. 18Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy 89 th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona Lessons Learnt  Relevance of the science –Global assessments useful for emissions policy and international treaties, laws, or norms –Regional assessments useful for adaptation decisions and bilateral or multilateral agreements –Policy makers may not question climate science, especially at global scale, but may need justification for local impacts –Climate extremes (both extreme stresses and extreme events) are among the most relevant for policy negotiations  Importance of uncertainty –Uncertainty information is useful and actionable, especially since policy makers routinely deal with uncertainty –Uncertainty cannot be an excuse for inaction as delayed action can cause larger change and more damaging impacts –Quantification of known uncertainty translates to risk assessments while characterization of unknown uncertainty supports policy –Uncertainty may provide worse case situations for infrastructure design or most likely / best case for resource allocation

19. 19Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy 89 th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona Translating Science to Policy  The “angry red chart” visual motivated much of the global consensus around emissions –Example: The policy-makers from all four regions tried desperately to agree on some common language to reduce emissions  Adaptation decisions and policies were based on hard realities on the ground –Example: Advanced US capabilities for disaster management around the globe were a primary consideration that dominated the discussions around hazards and humanitarian aid  Clear depiction of regional extreme stresses or events, including uncertainty, motivated bilateral and trilateral agreements, leading to global consensus –Example: The India team utilized regional maps of hydrologic / water extremes and stresses to motivate delegates from the US team to extract international norms regarding water treaties, in spite of some resistance from the China team

20. 20Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy 89 th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society; 21 st Conference on Climate Variability and Change; January 15 th 2009, Phoenix, Arizona ORNL Websites and Contributors Acknowledgments (ORNL: Alphabetical): Budhendra L Bhaduri John B Drake Gary K Jacobs Aaron Myers Olufemi A Omitaomu Blair Ross Alexander Sorokine Thomas J Wilbanks For related publications and presentations: Contact Auroop R Ganguly (gangulyar@ornl.gov)gangulyar@ornl.gov http://www.geocities.com/auroop_ganguly ORNL Websites 1. Climate Extremes http://www.ornl.gov/knowledgediscovery/ClimateExtremes 2. Climate Change War Game http://www.ornl.gov/knowledgediscovery/WarGaming 3. Climate Change & National Security http://www.ornl.gov/knowledgediscovery/NationalSecurity