1. GIS, GeoObjects, and Monte Carlo Simulation: A Match Made in Heaven (or )? Daniel Opdyke December 2, 1999

2. Acknowledgements UT: Dr. Maidment Kim Davis Tim Whiteaker Lesley Hay Wilson Andrew Romanek Julie Kim ESRI: Maggie Ruan Rob Burke Evan My apologies to anyone I missed…

3. Outline Objective Marcus Hook Groundwater Modeling Monte Carlo Simulation GeoObjects Results

4. Objective Plot time series data Why? GIS typically displays only spatial data How? Create GeoObject and place in ArcMap Run groundwater model Associate model output with specific object Give object ability (method) to plot model output

5. Marcus Hook Refinery Why? Already created by Andrew Romanek, et al. Used in exercise 8

6. Groundwater Model Model developed for my dissertation

7. Monte Carlo Simulation Brute force method to translate uncertainty in inputs to uncertainty in outputs. Input values drawn from assumed probability distributions. Model: C = A + B A is N(0,1), B is N(10,1) Iteration 1: C = -0.12 + 9.87 = 9.75 Iteration 2: C = -0.33 + 10.52 = 10.19 …ad nauseam

8. GeoObjects You know ‘em, you love ‘em Created HelloWorld object Only one custom property: “name” didn’t work, used OID instead Has interface – this works as a handle for VBA Methods written in VBA in ArcInfo, not C ++ Highly flexible and easy to revise/update Feature HelloWorld

9. Groundwater Elevations and HelloWorld Object (the POD)

10. Selection of Source Area and POD Locations

11. Running the Model

12. Raw Results - MSGraph

13. Results

14. Conclusions ArcInfo 8.0 can interact with other COM compliant software packages Can be used to drive tons of applications including Excel, Word, MSGraph, @Risk, FrontPage.  Not Fortran  Example, VBA code in ArcInfo runs a model and automatically updates both an Access database and a web page with the result so multiple users can get results in real time. -- and vice versa --