1. © 2004 discussit.org NOTICE THIS PRESENTATION MAY BE COPIED AND DISTRIBUTED WITHOUT COST. IT MAY ALSO BE MODIFED IF THE CREDITS AND THIS NOTICE ARE NOT REMOVED. You are encouraged to send copies of derived articles and upgraded slides to bruce@discussIT.org. The most recent version of this work may be found at www.discussIT.org. bruce@discussIT.org www.discussIT.org

2. © 2004 discussit.org e-Guideways Bruce A. McHenry bmchenry@alum.mit.ed u Bruce A. McHenry www.discussIT.org www.discussIT.org April 2nd, 2004 Revision 2.01PRJ

3. © 2004 discussit.org Acknowledgements Presentation created by: Bruce A. McHenry e-Guideway Association (bmchenry@alum.mit.edu) Modified by Palle R Jensenbmchenry@alum.mit.edu Particular thanks to: RUF International (Palle Jensen) MegaRail Transportation Systems (Kirston Henderson) RUF International MegaRail Transportation Systems Special thanks to Professor Jerry Schneider University of Washington for his Innovative Transportation Technologies web site Innovative Transportation Technologies web site

4. © 2004 discussit.org Transportation is Vital to US Consumes 19% of average household expenditures ($7,759) 4,000,000,000,000 passenger-miles in four-wheel vehicles 200,000,000 four-wheel vehicles Consumes 14 million barrels/day out of 20 million total Air carriers only 500,000,000,000 passenger miles (1/8 of car miles) Bureau of Transportation Statistics

5. © 2004 discussit.org Current Political Sense “Freedom Car” High Speed Trains Maglev Trains Light Rail

6. © 2004 discussit.org “Freedom Car” On-board storage is highly problematic (-420ºF liquid; 90,000psi gas; at best 100 kilos / gallon equivalent using metal hydride)

7. © 2004 discussit.org “Freedom Car” On-board storage is highly problematic (-420ºF liquid; 90,000psi gas; at best 100 kilos / gallon equivalent using metal hydride) Losses incurred during catalytic cracking of hydrocarbons are not offset by efficiency of H 2 fuel cells

8. © 2004 discussit.org “Freedom Car” On-board storage is highly problematic (-420ºF liquid; 90,000psi gas; at best 100 kilos / gallon equivalent using metal hydride) Losses incurred during catalytic cracking of hydrocarbons are not offset by efficiency of H 2 fuel cells Electrolysis, distribution, storage and conversion of H 2 incurs substantial energy losses

9. © 2004 discussit.org “Freedom Car” On-board storage is highly problematic (-420ºF liquid; 90,000psi gas; at best 100 kilos / gallon equivalent using metal hydride) Losses incurred during catalytic cracking of hydrocarbons are not offset by efficiency of H 2 fuel cells Electrolysis, distribution, storage and conversion of H 2 incurs substantial energy losses Solves none of the “presenting complaints” about congestion, safety, etc.

10. © 2004 discussit.org High Speed Trains < 300 miles: slower than 100MPH guideways door-to-door and far more costly on passenger-mile basis > 300 miles: slower and more expensive than planes Maglev trains have similar characteristics, only much, much more expensive.

11. © 2004 discussit.org Light Rail Typically serves only 1% of commuters where used Average subsidy per passenger equivalent to purchasing a car Relatively slow Requires large amount of public space

12. © 2004 discussit.org “Freedom Car” High Speed Trains Maglev Trains Light Rail

13. © 2004 discussit.org Winning Platforms e-Cars Hybrid Electric Cars e-Guideways

14. © 2004 discussit.org Remember…

15. © 2004 discussit.org 3000 killed 100 billion damage

16. © 2004 discussit.org 3000 killed every month 100 billion damage every year 42,000 deaths/yr. 10x injuries 100 billion/year property damage Photo: Philip Greenspun

17. © 2004 discussit.org OctoberNovemberDecember JanuaryFebruaryMarch AprilMayJune JulyAugustSept. OctoberNovemberDecember JanuaryFebruaryMarch AprilMayJune JulyAugustSept. OctoberNovemberDecember 2002 2003 January What would politicians do if a 9/11 happened every month?

18. © 2004 discussit.org What is a Dualmode Vehicle? A dualmode vehicle travels under manual control on the street network for some portion of its trip, and operates under automatic control on an exclusive guideway for some other portion. Images courtesy of RUF International

19. © 2004 discussit.org What is an e-Guideway? Animation Animation depicting cars assembling into car-trains on the guideway. Animation courtesy of RUF International

20. © 2004 discussit.org WHY?

21. © 2004 discussit.org 1. Safety Images courtesy of RUF International & AVT Train.com Guideways support high speeds with great safety…

22. © 2004 discussit.org … because they are separated from crossing vehicles and animals.

23. © 2004 discussit.org Footnote: Braking on the guideway would be swift and certain. Images courtesy of RUF International

24. © 2004 discussit.org 2.MORE ENERGY EFFICIENT 50-75% average aerodynamic drag reduction because only the first and last cars experience large drag forces Image courtesy of RUF International

25. © 2004 discussit.org 2.MORE ENERGY EFFICIENT >>2x reduction in rolling resistance because: 1) if the steel guideway is very smooth… 2) then the wheels can be hard with low rolling resistance e.g. multiple polyethylene wheels that will roll smoothly over expansion joints

26. © 2004 discussit.org 2.MORE ENERGY EFFICIENT In RUF design, rail wheels are smooth wheels. Traction friction can be adjusted by changing pressure against top rail Image courtesy of RUF International

27. © 2004 discussit.org 2.MORE ENERGY EFFICIENT Another 3x reduction in rolling resistance possible due to: 3) appropriate size, low average weight (1000 lbs.) > 6x less rolling resistance Photos courtesy of Global Electric Motorcars, LLC

28. © 2004 discussit.org Maglev? Magnetic levitation can offer much more reduction in rolling resistance. However, aerodynamic drag would still dominate running efficiency. Image courtesy of AVT-Train.com

29. © 2004 discussit.org Maglev? Magnetic levitation might someday offer much more reduction in rolling resistance. However, aerodynamic drag would still dominate running efficiency. Image courtesy of AVT-Train.com

30. © 2004 discussit.org 2. MUCH MORE ENERGY EFFICIENT 2-4x aerodynamic & 6x rolling friction reductions => Running efficiency improves 2-4X Image courtesy of RUF International

31. © 2004 discussit.org C d = 0.15 C d = 0.07 w/o wheels Image courtesy of Roane Inventions

32. © 2004 discussit.org Running Efficiency Gain 1:3

33. © 2004 discussit.org Allows cars to be lighter and much less expensive to run. 3. MOSTLY ELECTRIC PROPULSION Electrified guideway Image courtesy of RUF International

34. © 2004 discussit.org 3. MOSTLY ELECTRIC PROPULSION Solves range problem of all- electric cars. Makes e-cars practical… within urban areas or between them. Image courtesy of RUF International

35. © 2004 discussit.org What is the Propulsion Efficiency? New natural gas power plants (50%) Transmission efficiency (85%) Electric motor efficiency (90%) Overall: 38% Compare with 15% for typical internal combustion engine (ICE) or 25% for hybrid- electric

36. © 2004 discussit.org Propulsion Efficiency Gain 2:3

37. © 2004 discussit.org Overall Efficiency Gain 1:4.5

38. © 2004 discussit.org Conventionally Sized Van: 25 MPG at 65 MPH At 100 MPH it would get 11 MPG. (25 / (100/65) 2 ) Efficiency decreases approximately as square of speed when aerodynamic drag predominates New CAFÉ?

39. © 2004 discussit.org Conventionally Sized e-Van: 11 * 4.5 = 50 MPG at 100 MPH Prius (mid-size) Car: 30 MPG at 100 MPH 30 * 4.5 = 135 MPG at 100 MPH New CAFÉ?

40. © 2004 discussit.org $1.70 MEDIAN SIZE CAR: 15HP at 55MPH ON e-GUIDEWAY: → 100MPH with 3x better running efficiency… Generation & transmission cost of 1 kWh: $0.10 What is the electricity cost to travel 100 miles in an hour? Running efficiency gain = 3 Efficiency of electric motor = 90% Loss due to higher speed = (100/55) 3 = 6.0 Power needed at 100MPH: 15*6/3*0.9 = 33 HP or 25 kW Cost to Power a Mid-Size Car?

41. © 2004 discussit.org $2.50 MEDIAN SIZE CAR: 15HP at 55MPH ON e-GUIDEWAY: → 100MPH with 3x better running efficiency… Generation & transmission cost of 1 kWh: $0.10 What is the electricity cost to travel 100 miles in an hour? Running efficiency gain = 3 Efficiency of electric motor = 90% Loss due to higher speed = (100/55) 3 = 6.0 Power needed at 100MPH: 15*6/3*0.9 = 33 HP or 25 kW Cost to Power a Mid-Size Car?

42. © 2004 discussit.org $1.50 on e-Guideway at 100 MPH 2.5 cents per mile vs. 50 MPG at 70 MPH 2 gallons at $1.50 = $3.00 3.0 cents per mile 100 Miles in Mid-Size Car?

43. © 2004 discussit.org 4. LAND USE Guideways carry about 10x as many passengers/hr as a normal lane. (2200/hr vs. 22,000/hr) Image courtesy of RUF International

44. © 2004 discussit.org 4. MUCH LOWER LAND USE Because about 1/10 th footprint of an ordinary lane Image courtesy of MegaRail Transportation Systems Image courtesy of RUF International

45. © 2004 discussit.org 1:100

46. © 2004 discussit.org less than 1:100

47. © 2004 discussit.org 5. USER COMFORT & CONVENIENCE Images courtesy of RUF International Any time, door-to-door

48. © 2004 discussit.org 5. USER COMFORT & CONVENIENCE Image courtesy of RUF International Congestion free

49. © 2004 discussit.org 5. USER COMFORT & CONVENIENCE Images courtesy of RUF International

50. © 2004 discussit.org 5. USER COMFORT & CONVENIENCE Images courtesy of RUF International Can work, sleep or play

51. © 2004 discussit.org 5. USER COMFORT & CONVENIENCE Images courtesy of RUF International

52. © 2004 discussit.org 5. USER COMFORT & CONVENIENCE Any time, door-to-door Congestion free Can work, sleep or play Faster than air travel up to 500 miles. > Door-to-door DC to NYC areas: Sleep across the nation over the weekend At 3 cents per mile, $100 one-way single- occupancy

53. © 2004 discussit.org 6. DRAMATICALLY REDUCED CAR MAINTENANCE Vastly simpler electric motor – No ignition system – No valves – No piston rings – No motor vibration Regenerative braking No muffler No clutch No high speed salt spray

54. © 2004 discussit.org 7. INEXPENSIVE SHORT-TERM CAR RENTAL Because of low maintenance, virtually zero accidents, and reduced pick-up and point-of- return constraints.  Will order cars according to need, e.g.: One person commuter car Family outing SUV Cargo van Sleeper cars etc.

55. © 2004 discussit.org 8.AUTOMATED FREIGHT Less need for trans-shipment terminals. Faster Greater predictability and shorter lead times facilitate “just-in-time” delivery systems

56. © 2004 discussit.org 9.NATIONAL SECURITY End dependence on Middle East oil =>Freedom from risk of supply disruption =>May end funding repressive régimes

57. © 2004 discussit.org BUT Does it make economic sense? Will it fit downtown? What about the visual impact? How long will it take?

58. © 2004 discussit.org COST?

59. © 2004 discussit.org Cost Components 1.Power generation 2.Guideway construction

60. © 2004 discussit.org New Power Demand

61. © 2004 discussit.org New Power Demand Current national use 3.7 billion Mwh (2003)2003

62. © 2004 discussit.org New Power Demand Current national use of 3.7 billion Mwh 15 * 0.75 * (100/55) 3 / 3 * 1.11 = 25 Kw on guideway

63. © 2004 discussit.org New Power Demand Current national use of 3.7 billion Mwh 15 * 0.75 * (100/55) 3 / 3 * 1.11 = 25 Kw on guideway 1,000 miles/yr or 67hrs/yr at 15 mph and 2kW = 134 kWh/vehicle/yr 30,000 miles/yr or 300 hrs/yr at 100 mph and 25 kW = 6,900 Kwh/vehicle/yr

64. © 2004 discussit.org New Power Demand Current national use of 3.7 billion Mwh 15 * 0.75 * (100/55) 3 / 3 * 1.11 = 25 Kw on guideway 1,000 miles/yr or 67hrs/yr at 15 mph and 2kW = 134 kWh/vehicle/yr 30,000 miles/yr or 300 hrs/yr at 100 mph and 25 kW = 6,900 Kwh/vehicle/yr 150 million e-cars * 7 Mwh = 1.5 billion Mwh avg. demand

65. © 2004 discussit.org New Power Demand Current national use of 3.7 billion Mwh 150 million e-cars * 7 Mwh = 1.5 billion Mwh avg. demand 1,400 billion ton-miles of truck freight partially converted to 1,000 billion ton-miles of e-van freight Average van load: 800 lbs 2000/800 * 1000 = 2,500 billion miles of e-van freight e-van uses 40 Kwh on guideway per 100 miles.4 * 2500 = 1000 billion Kwh = 1.0 billion Mwh e-freight

66. © 2004 discussit.org New Power Demand Current national use of 3.7 billion Mwh 150 million e-cars * 7 Mwh = 1.5 billion Mwh avg. demand.4 * 2500 = 1000 billion Kwh = 1.0 billion Mwh e-freight Projected demand increase due to e-guideways is 2.5 billion Mwh Probable doubling of electricity supply

67. © 2004 discussit.org We can generate another 4 billion Mwh. If fuel costs increase sharply, we will know that we MUST generate another 4 billion Mwh.

68. © 2004 discussit.org So while DEMAND CAN BE MET WITH OIL OR GAS FIRED POWER PLANTS, we might use New Power Systems

69. © 2004 discussit.org So while DEMAND CAN BE MET WITH OIL OR GAS FIRED POWER PLANTS, we might use Wind Farms Image courtesy of Energy Electronics Institute, National AIST, Japan Solar Cell Farms

70. © 2004 discussit.org &

71. We might also use meltdown-proof nuclear reactors based on transportable uranium pebbles Image courtesy of Eskom, South Africa

72. © 2004 discussit.org “Pebble Bed” Nuclear Power Image courtesy of Eskom, South Africa

73. © 2004 discussit.org Guideway Construction Cost?

74. © 2004 discussit.org How Many Miles of Guideway? How many miles needed for metropolitan areas?

75. © 2004 discussit.org How Many Miles of Guideway? WDC is a metro area with 6 million residents 30x30 mile grid with 2 mile separation => 30 * (15+15) = 900 miles 150 miles per million residents -or- 100 subway miles * 4 = 400 100 beltway miles = 100 Total miles = 600 100 miles per million residents

76. © 2004 discussit.org How Many Miles Total? 100 miles per million metro area residents 200 million metro area residents nationwide => 20,000 miles of metro guideway 40,000 miles along interstates

77. © 2004 discussit.org Cost of E-Guideway EXPENSIVE!.. and we can only take an educated guess: 20,000 metropolitan miles @ $40 million per mile = $800 billion 40,000 miles of interstate @ $5 million per mile = $200 billion System cost about the same as initial construction of the interstate highway system ($1 trillion)

78. © 2004 discussit.org e-Guideways will be Expensive so… Can they be justified? Would they pay off?

79. © 2004 discussit.org #1: Value of Saved Drive-Time Frees up about 30 minutes from 55 * min avg. daily drive time:.5 * 365 = 183 hrs/yr. Eliminates >80% of long distance driving (4000 * miles/yr): 3200 / 60 = 53 hours/yr. 120 million drivers (est.) (183 + 53) * 120M = 28,320 million hr/yr $5/hr * 28M = $140B * Source: Bureau of Transportation StatisticsBureau of Transportation Statistics

80. © 2004 discussit.org #2: Value of Time Not Stuck in Traffic 80% reduction of time stuck in traffic at cost of $517/person * (2001) and estimated cost of $1300 per capita by 2015 (8% growth * ) 0.8 * 1300 * 120M (est.) = $125B * Source: Bureau of Transportation StatisticsBureau of Transportation Statistics

81. © 2004 discussit.org #3: Savings from Eliminated Accidents Approximately $100 billion/yr saved on insurance premiums and cost on non- covered accidents. Additional savings in personal medical expenses. $100B? Value of lives saved: $40B? Injuries not suffered: $40B?

82. © 2004 discussit.org #4: National Security At least $100 billion/yr. for reduced cost of military preparedness and stabilization operation in Middle East. (e.g. Additional cost of Operation Iraqi Freedom is approximately $100 billion/yr in FY 2004, 2005) Ought to be funded by $1 per gallon tax on 100 billions gallons consumed annually?

83. © 2004 discussit.org #5: Reduced Cost of Car Maintenance & Repair Savings of at least $50 billion/yr.

84. © 2004 discussit.org #6: Reduced Cost of New Cars Doubling the longevity of cars: $150 billion 1/3rd reduction in the price of 50% of new cars owing to the simplicity and lighter weight of all- electric drive: $50 billion offset by the increased complexity of hybrid dualmode vehicles -$50 billion.

85. © 2004 discussit.org #7: Savings Due to Car Sharing Sharing of cars much more conveniently and affordably because of greatly reduced point-of- return requirements and liability. No first car, second or third one reduces $300 billion capital investment in new cars by perhaps 10%-20% = $15-30 billion (out of $150 billion) Also, car sharing and smaller cars able to self park in dense configurations will also pare parking expenses (and make it possible to reduce or eliminate street parking). If 5% of 200m cars could pay $10 instead of $50/month to park: 10m * 40 * 12 = $5 billion.

86. © 2004 discussit.org #8: Less Truck Driving 50% reduction in the cost of drivers for combination trucks: $20 billion

87. © 2004 discussit.org #9: Reduced Highway Maintenance $29 billion → $20 billion → much less

88. © 2004 discussit.org #10: End of Subsidies for Other Transit Light rail, bus, AMTRAK, airlines subsidies vary by year but range from $10 to $20 billion at Federal level alone.

89. © 2004 discussit.org Total Value > $0.5T/yr. Suggests that the e-guideway construction costs could be paid back to society only two years after operation commences…

90. © 2004 discussit.org Total Value > $0.5T/yr. Suggests that the e-guideway construction costs could be paid back to society only two years after operation commences… if vehicles are dualmode capable at that time.

91. © 2004 discussit.org Another Economic Justification e-guideway construction and associated redevelopment will employ at least 600,000 Americans ($100B / $150,000)

92. © 2004 discussit.org And Many Quality of Life Benefits Improved mobility & safety i.e. access to friends, family & recreation Dramatic lowering of traffic impact on high density areas Potential to remodel public spaces Dramatic improvement in ripeness of fruits and vegetables Major facilitator of Internet commerce

93. © 2004 discussit.org RUF International is #1

94. © 2004 discussit.org Maxi-ruf: Attractive Public Transport

95. © 2004 discussit.org MegaRail is #2 MegaRail Transportation Systems propose a micro-rail for urban areas and a separate higher capacity system for interstate use.

96. © 2004 discussit.org Several More Serious Entrepreneurs ? Image Credits: German Autoshuttle, Tritrack, Blade Runner

97. © 2004 discussit.org Needs of e-Guideways About 10 years and about $100 billion R&D investment (10%) is desirable to optimize designs and manufacturing processes for eventual construction throughout the continent. Progress could be greatly with a series of high value prizes for engineering “bake- offs” Investment to date only about $4 million.

98. © 2004 discussit.org What is to be Done? Ramp R&D funding levels up towards $10 billion/yr to support series of highly rewarded engineering “bake-offs”. Contrast with national Amtrak subsidy (>$1 billion), the “Freedom Car” ($1.5 billion), Maglev ($2.0 billion), and NASA ($10 billion).

99. © 2004 discussit.org What is to be Done? Ramp R&D funding levels up towards $10 billion/yr to support series of highly rewarded engineering “bake-offs”. Contrast with national Amtrak subsidy (>$1 billion), the “Freedom Car” ($1.5 billion), Maglev ($2.0 billion), and NASA ($10 billion). Presidential commitment comparable to Kennedy’s goal of a “Man on the Moon” to design and build the first system on Oahu.

100. © 2004 discussit.org - OR - New private company with mission to develop guideway and vehicle designs Returns on investment expected in 5 – 15 years ROI to be negotiated with eventual clients, many of which could also be investors

101. © 2004 discussit.org Timetable About 10 years for series of design competitions and prototyping including first major build in Hawaii. About 10 years to construct functional coast-to-coast network Nice target date? 2025: The bicentennial of George Stephenson’s first passenger train (1825).