1. Managing Project Success
Vladimir Liberzon
Spider Management Technologies

2. Project Success Criteria
Part 1
Project Success Criteria

3. Project Success Criteria
Setting project targets is a key task that defines the process of project decision making and project performance analysis.
The usual approach of triple constraints is very complicated, yet it does not include all the necessary considerations for determining if a project is successful.

4. Project Success Criteria
Is Sydney Opera construction an example of successful project?
No, because actual expenses exceeded the planned budget by several times.
Yes, because it became one of the most famous Sydney attractions, bringing many tourists and a lot of money.

5. Project Success Criteria
The Motorola Iridium Project was finished on time and within budget. Can it be considered a successful project?
No!
Iridium, backed by Motorola Inc. (MOT), sought bankruptcy-court protection in 1999 after its $5 billion low-Earth orbit satellite (LEOS) fleet failed to attract customers or provide the quality service its backers had hoped for.

6. Project Success Criteria
If project success criteria are set as finishing project on time and under budget then proper decision making will be complicated.
It does not allow us to interpret the significance if the project exceeds the planned budget but is finished earlier than expected or if it is finished late but saves some money.
It fails to evaluate the consequences if the project was on time and within planned budget but expected revenues were not achieved.

7. Project Success Criteria
We suggest to set one single project success criterion that integrates project schedule, cost and business goals.
Establishing this single criterion is complex since it must include project scheduling, project budgeting, estimating of the future business benefits from the project product delivery, and risk analysis and simulation.

8. Project Success Criteria
If a project is business oriented then this project must have business targets and criteria of its success or failure.
The natural choice – setting target Internal Rate of Return (IRR).
Con:
The Product Life Cycle may be too long for reliable IRR estimation,
Uncertainties may be too great for proper IRR management.

9. Project Success Criteria
One of the potential alternative options – to set a target profit that should be achieved at some point in time based on the forecast of the revenues to be realized after the project results are delivered.
If the project profit meets or exceeds the target profit then performance is successful.
Such success criterion will permit weighting and balancing of time and money to make reasonable managerial decisions.

10. Project Success Criteria
On the next slide we will see the project schedule that is calculated without allowing for project financing and supply restrictions.
There are periods when the project has no money to proceed.

11. Project Success Criteria
But, if project manager can find enough money and materials then the project total profit on the imposed date will be close to $219,000.

12. Project Success Criteria
If we calculate the project schedule that accounts for financing, supply, and resource constraints then the total profit will be more than $25,000 lower.

13. Project Success Criteria
Maybe it is reasonable to borrow money or to find some other solution?
To be able to weight options and to choose the best it is necessary to look beyond the project results delivery date. It is necessary to simulate not only expenses but also revenues and resource constraints. This approach is especially important for portfolio management.

14. Project Success Criteria
For setting project success criterion it is necessary to incorporate the following data:
Target finish that may be achieved with reasonable probability,
Target budget that may be achieved with reasonable probability,
Forecast of the probable future benefits (for an example – future profit or revenue curve).
The target finish and target budget shall be calculated, taking into account all project constraints (including resource, financing and supply constraints) and using risk simulation.

15. Project Success Target
The next step is to define a specific point in time for measuring project success.
Let’s suppose that probable project NPV at this moment is a defined number of dollars. This date and amount can then be used as the project target defining the single project success criterion for the project management team.
It will, therefore, influence the project manager’s decision making processes.

16. Project Success Target
Now management decisions will be made by estimating their full business consequences. Project managers may decide to spend additional money to accelerate project performance if the NPV at the targeted date will rise as a result of this action.
At any time project performance may be measured by the forecasted NPV – if it exceeds the target then total project performance is successful. The current value of the forecasted NPV defines project status.

17. Project Success Target
NPV forecast depends not only on project performance results but also on the market conditions and other project environmental parameters. So project managers will analyze not only project performance but also revenue/profit forecasts. Their objective will be trying to improve everything.

18. Project Success Targets
But this target value is not a single value.
We recommend setting the following success targets:
optimistic project target that is set for the project team,
project management team target that includes contingency reserve,
management target that includes contingency and management reserves,
failure target that defines conditions under which project execution will be terminated.

19. Project Success Targets
Project Team Target
Project Management Team Target
Management Target
Failure
Contingency Reserve
Management Reserve
Still Profitable
Project Failure
Target Date

20. Part 2
Setting Project Targets
(deterministic approach)

21. Necessary Steps 1) Develop corporate databases
2) Develop typical fragnet library,
3) Create project model,
4) Define constraints,
5) Create project schedule,
6) Forecast future benefits,
7) Define project targets.

22. Step 1. Develop corporate databases
Corporate project management has to be based on corporate standards. These standards must include not only processes and document templates but also estimates of the typical activity and assignment parameters.
Activities, resources and assignments belong to the same type if they share the same characteristics like unit costs, material consumption per work volume (quantity) unit, resource productivity, etc.

23. Step 1. Develop corporate databases
Corporate databases (Reference-books) should include at least:
Activity cost and material requirements per activity type volume unit,
Resource assignment cost and material requirements per assignment type volume unit,
Resource assignment productivity,
Assignment work load.

24. Step 2. Develop typical fragnet library
Project fragnets usually describe typical processes and technologies that are used more than once.
Creating project computer models using the corporate library of typical fragnets will help to avoid inconsistencies and assures that the project model follows corporate standards.
A library of typical fragnets is a very important tool for the development of corporate culture and management standards.

25. Step 3. Create project model
Project model will be developed using typical fragnet library with project parameter estimations based on the corporate reference-books.
This approach helps to create reliable project models that correspond with the corporate standards for technologies to be used and parameter (activity duration, costs, resource productivities, etc.) values.

26. Step 4. Define constraints
Project constraints include
time constraints,
resource constraints,
financing constraints (financing schedule),
supply constraints (supply schedule),
calendar constraints.

27. Step 5. Create project schedule
The problem of project schedule development without allowing for resource constraints has a correct mathematical solution (Critical Path Method), which would be the same for all PM packages, provided that the initial data are identical. All other problems are solved using different approaches and yielding different results.

28. Step 5. Create project schedule
Traditional notion of Critical Path works only in case of unlimited resources availability.
Let us consider a simple project consisting of five activities, presented at the next slide.

29. Step 5. Create project schedule
Activities 2 and 5 are performed by the same resource.

30. Step 5. Create project schedule
Please pay attention to activities that became critical. Now delaying each of the activities 1, 2 and 5 will delay the project finish date. We call these activities Resource Critical and their sequence comprises Resource Critical Path.

31. Step 5. Create project schedule
In many projects it is necessary to simulate financing and production, and calculate project schedules taking into account all limitations (including availability of renewable resources, material supply and financing schedules). True critical path should account for all schedule constraints including resource and financial limitations.

32. Step 5. Create project schedule
We call it Resource Critical Path (RCP) to distinguish it from the traditional interpretation of the critical path definition.
The calculation of RCP is similar to the calculation of the traditional critical path with the exception that both early and late dates (and corresponding activity floats) are calculated during forward and backward resource (and material, and cost) leveling.

33. Step 5. Create project schedule
This technique permits us to identify resource constrained floats.
Activity resource constrained float shows the period for which activity execution may be postponed within the current schedule with the set of resources available in this project.
It appears that by adding financial and supply constraints to the Critical Chain definition as well as the method of the Critical Chain calculation, we will obtain something very similar to RCP.

34. Step 6. Forecast future benefits
Usually a project is considered to be finished when the project result is delivered and starts to bring benefits.
Without forecast of these benefits it is impossible to evaluate the consequences of management decisions made during project execution.
That is why the forecast of the future benefits must be included in the project model.

35. Step 7. Define project target
Future benefits depend on time.
By defining the target date we restrict the horizon of benefit forecasting and will be able to calculate the cash flow value to that moment.
This value can be set as the project success criterion – if the cash flow forecast meets or exceeds this value then project performance may be considered to be successful.

36. Step 7. Define project target
Separate management target cash flow values may be defined for the same project. This target includes management reserve set for unknown unknowns. In deterministic approach to project planning this management reserve can be estimated based on past experience and expert judgements.
The probabilistic approach allows us to calculate necessary contingency and management reserves.

37. Setting Project Targets
Part 3
Setting Project Targets
(probabilistic approach)

38. Necessary Steps 8) Analyze risks,
9) Define target success probability for project management team,
10) Define target success probability for the organization (management),
11) Calculate target values for PM team and top management,
12) Define failure value.

39. Risk Simulation Risk simulation may be based on:
Monte Carlo simulation
Three scenarios approach

40. Risk Simulation – three scenarios approach
A project planner obtains three estimates (optimistic, most probable and pessimistic) for all initial project data (duration, volumes, productivity, calendars, costs, etc.).
Risk events are selected and ranked using the usual approach to risk qualitative analysis. Usually we recommend including negative risk events with probability
exceeding 90% in the optimistic scenario,
exceeding 50% in the most probable scenario,
all selected risks in the pessimistic scenario.
Selection of positive risk events is opposite.

41. Risk Simulation – three scenarios approach
The most probable and pessimistic project scenarios may contain additional activities and costs due to corresponding risk events and may employ additional resources and different calendars than the optimistic project scenario.
As a result the project planner obtains three expected finish dates, costs and material consumptions for all major milestones.

42. Recommended Parameters
They are used to rebuild probability curves for the dates, costs and material requirements.
Defining desired probabilities of meeting project targets a project planner obtains recommended finish dates, costs and material requirements for any project deliverable.

43. Success Probabilities
If different targets were approved then it is necessary to calculate the probabilities of meeting these targets. If they are reasonable then they may be accepted.
Probabilities to meet approved project targets we call Success Probabilities.
These targets may be set for all project parameters that will be controlled (profit, expenses, duration, material consumption).

44. But, the baseline schedule does not exist!
Target dates do not belong to any schedule. Usually they are between most probable and pessimistic dates. A set of target dates and costs (analogue of milestone schedule) is the real project baseline.
But, the baseline schedule does not exist!

45. Buffers
We recommend using the optimistic scenario for setting task objectives for project implementers and managing project reserves at the management level.
The difference between scheduled and target finish dates shows current schedule contingency reserve (buffer),
Cost buffer is the difference between targeted and calculated cost.

46. Buffers
As we discussed earlier there are several targets for each parameter and corresponding buffers (PM team targets, top management targets, contract targets, failure targets).
Each target has its own initial probability of successful achievement.
Example:
Project team target profit can be achieved with 65% probability,
Management target profit has 80% probability of success,
Failure profit will be exceeded with 95% initial probability.

47. Risk Analysis Sample
There are time, cost and material buffers that show contingency reserves not only for a project as a whole (analogue of Critical Chain project buffer) but also for any activity in the optimistic project schedule.

48. Management by Trends
Part 4

49. Trend Analysis
Project Performance Management will be based on trend analysis.
It is necessary to discover problems as soon as possible and, by analyzing trends of the major project parameters, the project manager can quickly understand if there are problems with project performance.

50. Trend Analysis (Deterministic approach)
If risks were not analyzed and simulated it is reasonable to analyze trends of the forecasts for data that were used in success criteria definition.
If we defined that the project performance will be considered as successful if NPV forecast for the specified date exceeds the target value then we will analyze if this forecast is growing or not.
Negative trend shows problems in project performance and requires consideration of corrective actions.

51. Success Probability Trends
The best way to measure project performance is to analyze what is going on with the project success probabilities. If they are increasing it means that contingency reserves were spent slower than expected, if they dropped it means that project performance is not as good as planned and corrective actions are needed.

52. Success Probability Trends
Success probabilities may change due to:
Performance results
Scope changes
Cost changes
Risk changes
Resource changes
Market conditions changes

53. Success Probability Trends
Thus, success probability trends reflect not only project performance results but also what is going on around the project.
We consider success probability trends to be the really integrated project performance measurement tool.

54. Success Probability Trends
Success probability trends may be used as the only information about project performance at the top management level because this information is sufficient for project performance estimation and for appropriate decision making.
We call the described methodology Success Driven Project Management.

55. Managing Project Success
Part 5
Managing Project Success

56. Success Management Steps
Project Success Management includes following steps:
1) Define integrated project success criterion that is based on the project business goal. Usually this criterion is the project cash flow (profit) value at some specific date in the future.
2) Set reasonable and achievable target values of project success criterion for project stuff, for project management team, for organization management.
3) Define what business results mean that project termination shall be considered.

57. Project Success Management Steps
4) Basing on performance management results calculate current value of success criterion, and current probabilities to meet project targets.
5) Analyze success probability trends. If this trends are negative consider corrective actions.
6) Determine, analyze and implement corrective actions. Corrective action should raise success criterion value.

58. Project Success Management Benefits
One single integrated success criterion makes management and project performance analysis easier and more reliable.
Risk simulation helps to determine necessary contingency and management reserves and to set reasonable targets.
Success Probability Trends integrate project performance results and show performance problems immediately.

59. Project Success Management Benefits
Success Probability Trends integrate project scope, time, cost, risk, and procurement performance information. They may be used at the top management level as the only and sufficient tool for reliable project performance analysis and decision making.

60. THANK YOU! I will appreciate your feedback and future discussions.
Vladimir Liberzon