1. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco Public EntNet 2007 Noevember 29, 2007 1 The Next Net Things Fred Baker Cisco Fellow

2. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 2 Quick thoughts on the title  The program committee suggested the title: Net-centricity is about warfare - using Internet technology to replace traditional radio and ATM-based battlefield communication systems. Net Neutrality is about public policy and the politics between the OOT providers and the traditional telcos. NGN is about the ITU's bid to take over the Internet and turn it into a bunch of walled gardens that can't talk with each other. IPv6 is a network layer protocol. Social networks are a web phenomenon, which is to say somewhere in the application layer.  Many of those will be mentioned. I’m not talking about any of them in particular, and I will mention others

3. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 3 History of Datagram Communications  1960’s - “Earth to telcos, voice isn’t everything”  1970’s - development of LAN & WAN datagram technologies  1980’s - displacement of telcos in intra-office communications  1990’s - displacement of telcos in inter-office communications  2000’s - NGN: telcos buy the competition and become communication carriers “by the way, I make my money on voice”

4. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 4 History of the Internet: “oops, …”  1960’s - first thoughts… Host to host communications  1970’s - funded research: The @ sign, discovery that the network is important  1980’s - commercialization Proprietary technologies in the LAN Government funding gives way to regional consortia  1990’s - consolidation Addressing issues give rise to CIDR, NAT, IPv6 RIRs+ISPs work out rules for address and capacity management Applications: the web, RealAudio, MBONE videoconferencing  2000’s - paradigm changes Business: the dot-bombs The networks squeeze money out of capacity Applications: peer-to-peer, social networking, streaming video

5. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco Public EntNet 2007 Noevember 29, 2007 5 What are the studies telling us is next?

6. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco Public EntNet 2007 Noevember 29, 2007 6 “ Vodafone now splits out its non-voice revenue into Messaging and Data (true data), probably because the figure for the latter KPI is starting to look a whole lot healthier. Messaging and data revenue combined now accounts for almost 20% of the Group’s revenues. Voice revenue increased just 7% year-on-year and messaging revenue grew 9%, data revenue jumped a whopping 49%. Attractive data pricing, improved usability and mobile demand for Web 2.0 services which is brewing to form the perfect data storm. Operators must now identify ways to tap into revenues from web services or else be left exposed …” ArcChart http://www.arcchart.com/blueprint/show.asp?id=428 “Vodafone results forecast the perfect data storm” 21 Nov 2007

7. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 7 “Our findings indicate that although core fiber and switching/routing resources will scale nicely to support virtually any conceivable user demand, Internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America, will likely cease to be adequate for supporting demand within the next three to five years. It’s important to stress that failing to make that investment will not cause the Internet to collapse. Instead, the primary impact of the lack of investment will be to throttle innovation: both the technical innovation that leads to increasingly newer and better applications, and the business innovation that relies on those technical innovations and applications to generate value. The next Google, YouTube, or Amazon might not arise, not because of a lack of demand, but due to an inability to fulfill that demand. Rather like osteoporosis, the underinvestment in infrastructure will painlessly and invisibly leach competitiveness out of the economy.” Nemertes Research “The Internet Singularity: Delayed - Why Limits in Internet Capacity Will Stifle Innovation on the Web” http://www.nemertes.com/ii November 2007 © 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 7

8. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco Public EntNet 2007 Noevember 29, 2007 8 “…the main reason potential customers say they do not subscribe to the Internet is because of the low value to their daily lives they perceive rather than concerns over cost.” “Entertainment applications will be the key. If anything will pull in the holdouts, it's going to be applications that make the Internet more akin to pay TV,” John Barrett, Parks Associates http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070323/wr_nm/internet_holdouts_dc_1

9. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco Public EntNet 2007 Noevember 29, 2007 9 IPv6: Addressing the Future Steve Deering deering@cisco.com Global IPv6 Summit, Dubai February 26, 2001

10. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 10 continued degradation of the Internet model with IPv4?  more complex and volatile network service => lower performance, less robust, less secure, less manageable  more centralized control over new applications and services => significant barrier to innovation and growth The Unknown Future NAT-ALG IPv4 NAT-ALG

11. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 11 Walled Gardens

12. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 12 …or restoration of the Internet model with IPv6?  simple, stable network service => higher performance, more robust, more secure, more manageable  enabling anyone to provide new applications and services => allowing rapid innovation and growth IPv6 The Unknown Future

13. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 13 Oh, that peer-to-peer thing…  In essence, the open source community of the early 2000’s decided to innovate around the walled-garden ISPs  Some ISPs, enterprises, and universities tried to shut them down Ostensibly about copyright concerns More commonly about Protection of ISP services from OTT services like Skype Protection of bandwidths and budgets  Some ISPs decided to innovate with them…

14. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 14 What's the problem?  VDSL (or “Fat band”) is introduced Upstream may go from 0.4Mb to 26Mb  60 - 80% of the traffic is file sharing applications, or maybe more…  KaZaA appears to be overtaken by Direct Connect. Possibly a short term change to the better, but long term change to the worse…(user interest groups)  Connectivity services with very high local bandwidth (TBCN)  Selective bandwidth per application to other specific networks  Requirements for higher utilization of the network  Real time traffic may not be compromised (like gaming and IP-telephony)  And some other business- and political issues “not put on paper”… Customer-provided information: 12/2003

15. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 15 Packet cube Time (hour) 5h 4h 3h 2h 1h 0 0300600900 1200 1500 Average packet size (Byte) Variation of packet size (Byte) 300 900 1200 600 IP-phone (classic) Skype (IP-phone) HTTP File sharing Maybe packet rate (not bandwidth) should be a fourth dimension? Customer-provided information: 12/2003

16. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 16 What applications are hot?  HTTP In the late 1990’s, the largest application on the Internet was the web - http to anything one could imagine  Peer-to-peer In the early 2000’s, peer-to-peer file sharing drove Internet bandwidth, in some cases 85% of utilization  Web 2.0 In 2007, the largest volume sites on the Internet have successively been FaceBook, MySpace, and YouTube  Peer-to-peer file sharing is still very large, but HTTP is once again king… Far from being entertainment-by-entertainment-company, today’s Internet is largely about people entertaining themselves and each other with content they develop

17. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 17  Recommending IPv6 operational deployment due to pending exhaustion of the IPv4 address space All five RIRs…

18. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco Public EntNet 2007 Noevember 29, 2007 18 “The sky’s not falling, but parts of it are getting pretty expensive to hold up.” KC Claffy CAIDA

19. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 19 So - what’s next?

20. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 20 What has always been next?

21. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 21 What will trigger that change?

22. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 22 Inflection point  Many analyses point to an inflection point IPv4 address exhaustion leading to IPv6 deployment US broadband (access) infrastructure brownout Mobile Internet starting to move beyond voice+SMS Global Internet content continuing to shift (happens frequently)  Implications: This does not mean “doom and gloom” It does, however, imply need for thoughtful investment  Timeframe: Converging factors (“perfect storm”) suggest this is in the coming 3-5 year timeframe

23. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 23 Areas of change and innovation  New user communities New networks reaching less obvious folks  Regulatory discussions The role of government The degree of control carriers are allowed Requirements for forensic access, content control, etc  Oh yes… Extending existing applications, and New applications and paradigms that we haven’t thought of yet

24. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 24 Where is the broadband Internet today? The Europe/America/East Asia/ANZ fiber corridor Map copyright 2008 TeleGeography

25. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 25 Power, and by extension money, throughout the world NASA “Earth At Night”, August 2006

26. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 26 IP Addresses throughout the world today

27. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 27 Developing countries coming on line  NATO Silk Road Network: Connects national educational networks in central asia  Preparatory to fiber networks Photo: Silk Road Project © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco Public

28. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 28 Rural and community networks Wireless Access in Sandoval County New Mexico  Often mixed requirements Example: Sandoval County NM Seven aboriginal nations Large desert/mountain region Small town of 100,000 Broadband service by traditional telecoms “didn’t make business sense” © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco Public International Workshop on e- Access for All 8-9 February 2007

29. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 29 “The issue of connection and/or interconection costs is…a very important issue for most of people from developing countries… It is related to the lack of infrastructure, the lack of investment, the “cartel” behavior of many companies in some regions/sub- regions, obsolete regulations,and lack of appropriate public policies.” Raul Echeberria LACNIC 29 © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco Public

30. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 30 IPv6 deployment  Significant IPv6 traffic in transition technologies RIPE-55 measurements: Jordi Palet Martinez Presumably from Vista, MacOSX, and Linux deployments  Networks running IPv6-only: NTT Communications video network CERNET2 Research Network Others…  Expect to see IPv6 turn-up in the near term Needed by ISPs to deploy new services requiring address space Needed to communicate with business partners in IPv6-only networks

31. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 31 Issues in IPv6 deployment  IETF and RIRs have been recommending dual stack deployment While one can make a 1:1 correspondence between IPv4 and IPv6 addresses, bring up IPv6 in your IPv4 network When that correspondence can no longer be made, everyone will “speak” IPv6, and the net can safely “move along” RFC 4213  Folks haven’t done this in large numbers Implication: there will be issues as IPv6 deploys IETF question (next week): do we need an improved NAT-PT algorithm, and can we deploy it? RFC 4966  Open issue: IPv6 doesn’t address route scaling issues of the address space Ongoing work in this area needs to continue.

32. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 32 Applications  Web 2.0 sites and technologies Social Networking  Peer-to-peer Primarily about file sharing Also Skype voice/video  Video services YouTube etc  Collaboration technology Marratech, for example

33. © 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 33 Q and A