1. Job Prospects, Skill Shortages and Job Outlook CEET Annual Conference Friday 28 October 2005 Labour Market Strategies Group (LMSG) Denis Hart

2. Overview of presentation Five areas of discussion: Industry drivers of jobs growth Occupational employment trends Assessing job prospects for occupations Skill shortages and workforce ageing Job Outlook online - 2005 update

3. Industry employment projections Starting point for job prospects: Monash model employment forecasts for industries Recent employment trends: examine changes over long/medium and short term (DEWR trend data) Most ‘employment action’ in service industries: not modelled in as much detail as manufacturing Review Monash forecasts and prepare DEWR projections for around 160 industries (‘anchored’ by previous DEWR projections and Monash forecasts) DEWR industry employment projections are put into Monash model (new set of occupational projections)

4. Employment growth by industry 5 years to Aug 05 (‘000)

5. Industry employment drivers Five key industries are expected to contribute more than four in five new jobs in the five years to 2009-10 Strong growth is expected to continue for Property and Business Services and Health and Community Services (the two largest sources of new jobs) Easing in growth is projected for Retail and, more so, Construction, while continuing job gains are projected for Accommodation, Cafes/Restaurants Manufacturing employment is expected to fall, and there may be some pick-up for Agriculture

6. Industry drivers of jobs growth to 2009-10

7. A tale of two industries Health and Community Services Manufacturing

8. Employment growth by skill level (Aug 95 = 100)

9. Occupational employment projections Examine Monash model forecasts (including ‘DEWR’ version), and actual employment growth trends Projections are ‘anchored’ by the Monash model forecasts and our previous projections (2000 to 2004) Factors considered: recent/historical employment growth, whether occupation is in growth industries, vacancy trends and qualitative information on occupations (eg new technology, structural change, changes in work organisation) Employment projections are ‘reconciled’ and converted into our occupational structure Prepare quantitative projections, but ‘publish’ decile ratings in Job Outlook (with guide as to range of growth rates)

10. Occupations with largest future job growth 5 years to 2009-10 (‘000)

11. Projected job growth - selected Trades (% pa to 2009-10)

12. JOB PROSPECTS Projected employment growth - next five years Recent/historical employment trends (up to ten years) Whether the occupation is employed in growth industries Unemployment rate for the occupation Vacancy trends and graduate employment outcomes Whether there are skill shortages and workforce ageing Job turnover - workers leaving the occupation (job opportunities for new workers) and total vacancies Expected occupational developments - structural change and the impact of technology, including new products Prospects ratings for occupations: very good, good, above average, average and limited

13. Key indicators – Sales Assistants (graph)

14. Key indicators - Sales Assistants

15. Sales Assistants Employment Growth The graph shows employment growth (per cent) over the past five years and two years for this occupation, compared with all occupations. Employment Level The graph shows the employment level ('000) for this occupation for February, 1990 to 2005

16. Jobs with good prospects Accountant Bookkeepers Bricklayers Cabinetmakers Chefs and Cooks Customer Service Managers Dentists Finance Managers Financial Dealers/ Brokers Forklift Drivers General/Landscape Gardeners General Medical Practitioners Hairdressers Human Resource Professionals Legal Professionals Motor Mechanics Occupational Therapists Office Assistants/Managers Pharmacists Physiotherapists Policy Analysts Project/Program Administrators Receptionists Sales Assistants Security Officers/Guards Waiters

17. Skill shortages in Australia Where are the skill shortages? Shortages are widespread in the trades: eg automotive, chefs and cooks, engineering, electrical and (some) construction trades For professionals, skill shortages are mainly evident for nurses and health specialists (eg pharmacist, physiotherapist), child care workers, accountants and civil engineers Why do skill shortages matter? Skill shortages can impede industry growth and innovation (and cause upward pressure on wages) and affect the reliability and quality of services (eg health services) Information on skill shortages can: Help to understand the nature and causes of skill shortages, develop industry-led and employment service strategies, guide education planning and target skilled migration

18. Ageing of the workforce % aged 45 years and over

19. Occupational ‘Wastage’

20. Job Outlook - 2005 update Job Outlook has 12 graphs on characteristics, trends and prospects for each occupation and an overview page (around 5,000 graphs for all occupations) In addition to a ‘colour change’ and updating, there is a new graph showing employment growth by gender and full-time/part-time in the past few years) The median age in years has been added to the age profile graph Sample graphs are presented in the following slides and a brochure with sample graphs is available Available @ jobsearch.gov.au/joboutlookjobsearch.gov.au/joboutlook

21. Sales Assistants - overview

22. Job Outlook - navigation The right-side navigation for Job Outlook (overview page) has valuable links for each occupation: Current vacancies at the local level (on AJS) Education and training courses for each region (on Australian Training) In-depth occupational information - O*Net from the United States (on Job Explorer) There are also links to information on jobs with good prospects, skill shortages and the educational profile` Hyperlinks can be used to deep link to occupations http://jobsearch.gov.au/joboutlook/default.aspx?PageId=AscoDesc&AscoCode=8211