1. 3.2. Applying the Models The Leader Model The Group Model The Rational Actor Model The Bureaucratic Politics Model

2. Applying the Models: US Decision-making and the 1990-1991 Gulf War Background to War US Decision-making –US President George Bush (Sr.) –Secretary of Defence Richard (Dick) Cheney –Secretary of State James Baker –Gen. Colin Powell, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff –Gen. Norman Schwartzkopf, CinC Central Command –Brent Scowcroft, National Security Advisor –Richard Haass, Special Assistant to the President for Near East and South Asian Affairs

3. Background to War The Economic Crisis in Iraq –Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) –GNP in 1980=85bn; GNP in 1985=37.4bn –40% of GNP to military 1980-1988 –Debt by 1987=37 billion –Inflation 40% in 1990

4. Background to War Iraqi Pressure on Kuwait –Demanded cash grant –Claimed ownership of Kuwaiti islands –Renewed historic claim to Kuwait –Accused Kuwait of stealing Iraqi oil from the Rumalia oilfield –Military movements: July 1990 Iraqi military advances toward Kuwaiti border

5. Background to War Crisis Management Efforts –Invasion judged unlikely –Mediation efforts by Gulf States failed –No warning from US

6. Background to War The Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait –August 2, 1990 US-led Coalition (with UNSCR) –Operation Desert Shield (August 6) –Operation Desert Storm (January 17 1991) –Ground War (February 24-28 1991)

7. Legacy Saddam Hussein remained in power No fly zones Sanctions Arms Inspections and WMD –UNSCOM (United Nations Special Commission) 2003 Iraq War and ongoing War/Occupation