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Credit Suisse First Boston 2003 Asian Investment Conference Stuart Grimshaw Chief Financial Officer 25-28 March 2003 www.commbank.com.au.

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Presentation on theme: "Credit Suisse First Boston 2003 Asian Investment Conference Stuart Grimshaw Chief Financial Officer 25-28 March 2003 www.commbank.com.au."— Presentation transcript:

1 Credit Suisse First Boston 2003 Asian Investment Conference Stuart Grimshaw Chief Financial Officer 25-28 March 2003 www.commbank.com.au

2 2 The material that follows is a presentation of general background information about the Bank’s activities current at the date of the presentation, 25 March 2003. It is information given in summary form and does not purport to be complete. It is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. These should be considered, with or without professional advice when deciding if an investment is appropriate. Disclaimer

3 3 Speaker’s Notes Speaker’s notes for this presentation are attached below each slide. To access them, you may need to save the slides in PowerPoint and view/print in “notes view.”

4 4 Agenda Commonwealth Bank in the Current Context Platforms for Growth Productivity

5 Commonwealth Bank in the Current Context

6 6 Australia’s Economy has been relatively resilient given global conditions Source: Commonwealth Research -10 0 10 20 30 Jul-97Jul-98Jul-99Jul-00Jul-01Jul-02 -10 0 10 20 30 % Housing Business Other personal CREDIT: 3 Month-ended Annual Rates ECONOMIC GROWTH: 2002 China South Korea Thailand New Zealand Australia Indonesia Taiwan Canada United States Singapore Hong Kong Spain Sweden United Kingdom Norway France Belgium Italy Germany Netherlands Switzerland Japan

7 7 Domestic housing demand has been strong Source: Commonwealth Research, Melbourne Institute -3%-2%-1%0%1% Income (+1%) Mortgage rate (up 1%) Unemployment rate (up 1%) Investment returns (+1%) House Price Sensitivity (% deviation from baseline) Income ($'000pa) 5 10 15 20 <3031-5051-7071-100>100 % Debt Repayment Levels: % household income (Melbourne Institute) 200 250 300 350 400 Jul-99Jul-00Jul-01Jul-02 Quarterly Monthly $'000 Established House Prices (national) Jul-03

8 8 Business confidence has been subdued, but is expected to gain momentum Source: Commonwealth Research CAPEX (annual % change) -30 -15 0 15 30 1988/891991/921994/951997/982000/012003/04 -30 -15 0 15 30 % CBA (f) INVESTMENT ACTIVITY* (cumulative % contribution, 2001 base yr) -50510 Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Construction Wholesale Retail Transport & storage Finance & insurance Prop. & bus. services Cult. & other services Gov administration Health & comm. Other * Jan 2003

9 9 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Jun-02Sep-02Dec-02 IndustryCommonwealth Bank While equity markets have showed some resilience, returns and fund flows have declined $m Total Net Retail Fund Flows (for quarter ended) Source: Plan for Life (ex Cash) -74% Equity Markets Source: Bloomberg 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 Jul-02Sep-02Nov-02Jan-03 -12.5% -16.1% All Ordinaries MSCI World Index (Base 100)

10 10 Commonwealth Bank’s 1st Half result reflects modest growth in an uncertain environment Net Profit After Tax (cash basis)* Comprising: Banking Funds Management Life Insurance Dec 2002 $1,208m $1,079m $135m ($6m) Dec 2001 $1,192m % Change 1% * ie excluding appraisal value uplift/reduction and goodwill amortisation. Unless otherwise stated the numbers in this presentation refer to the net profit after tax (cash basis) and all comparisons are to the prior comparative period. $1,092m $186m $31m 11% (26%) (117%)

11 11 CBAANZNABWBC The Bank’s credit quality and capital adequacy strengthened during the half Tier 1 CapitalTier 2 CapitalTarget Range 9.31% 9.80% 9.81% 6.75%6.78% 7.06% Capital Adequacy Ratios Bad Debt Expense to RWA* General Provision to RWA % RWA *RWA: risk weighted assets

12 12 The Bank’s dividend payout ratio remains high relative to peers Dividends per Share Dividend Payout Ratio Dec 2002 69cps 72.7% 95cps 12.39% 52.6% Dec 2001 68cps 72.6% 94cps 12.43% 54.2% Change 1c - 1c (4bps) (3%) Earnings per Share Return on Equity Banking Cost to Income Ratio (underlying basis) …and EPS has improved For more detail, visit: www.commbank.com.au/shareholder

13 13 Increasing leveraging from key competitive strengths is important for long term growth Scale Brand Risk Profile Products and Businesses Distribution Innovation People

14 Platforms for Growth: Banking

15 15 % Customer Share: All Relationships Source: Research International, December 2002 The Bank is a leading player in the Australian market 1st in Home Lending 1st in Credit Cards 1st in Retail Deposits 1st in Online Broking Strong in Business Lending Largest customer base Most points of access Best known bank brand

16 16 Several key trends are shaping the future of the home loan market Economic Environment Interest rates at historical lows - but affordability has weakened Slowing housing credit demand likely Historically low credit losses Property sector attractive compared to other asset classes Customer Need Entrenched fast repayment psyche First home buying activity brought forward by FHOG* - weaker demand likely Defined service demands Wealth creation mindset has fuelled investment loan growth but expect to be tempered by economic uncertainty Distribution Mortgage brokers well established - but facing first slowdown in demand Continued market consolidation likely Linkages likely to intensify to financial planners - increased competition Technology Broker groups also investing in front end & CRM** solutions Centralised back end models utilising straight through processing Intensification in use of CRM type solutions - owned and rented Increased use of IVR***/web for customer servicing requests and marketing Competitive Environment Mortgage market a high demand sector Low credit losses - increasing willingness by some market participants to take on risk Slowing housing credit demand - propensity for increased poaching/ refinancing offers, including increasing commissions to third parties ***IVR: interactive voice recognition **CRM: customer relationship management*FHOG: First Home Owner’s Grant

17 17 The Bank’s strategy is to segment, sell, serve & retain Segments  Acquisition:  First Home Buyers - safety, security& reassurance. Basic product needs (Economiser, Fixed Rates)  Second Home Buyers - trust and security. More flexible product options (Park & Hold, Top ups, Viridian)  Investors - financially astute. Service, advice and greater product flexibility (Viridian AddVantage Line of Credit).  Retention  Builders - flexible repayment structures (100% interest offset). Build their home equity faster  Lifestylers - use loan to fund renovations etc.  Wealth Creators - benefit of diversification and funds to build assets Customer Value Proposition Choice of market leading products that build wealth backed by superior service at all points of the relationship Customer Management Model  Service. Products and services at each stage in customer life cycle tailored to need.  Efficient and accurate straight through end to end processing, fast approvals and turnaround.  Retention via sophisticated event based marketing and communication based on life cycle needs.  Acquisition via multi branded strategy across channels using targeted offers to drive volume & profitability Customer Service Proposition Consistent expedited end to end dealings with choice of channel. Products to meet customers risk and lifestyle needs Point of Service Differentiation Ability to provide a life cycle of wealth building products underpinned by accurate, efficient and low cost processing

18 18 Share of wallet improving - cross-sell, retention and service initiatives are in train Basis: If a customer has a relationship (as a main Financial Institution or otherwise) with an Financial Institution, what proportion of their holdings do they keep with that Financial Institution? Share of Wallet by Financial Institution Source: Research International, December 2002

19 19 Premium Customers: Offering a Differentiated Business Model Banking Platform Broking Platform Borrowing Services Lending Services Transactional Banking Advisory Services Direct Investment Indirect Investment Debt Products Equity Products Commercial Adviser Personal Adviser Investment Adviser Financial Adviser Risk/Insurance Adviser Client Primary Relationship Manager Secondary Relationship Manager & specialised advice

20 20 Republic: Providing a comprehensive view of premium customers Please note information on these data screens have been scrambled for privacy purposes

21 21 Republic: Providing a comprehensive view of premium customers Please note information on these data screens have been scrambled for privacy purposes

22 22 Transforming Business and Corporate Banking Transformation Agenda Structured In Three Phases Completed Status 1.Define and revitalise Business/Corporate Banking 2.Re-organise for success 3.Capture industry leadership Underway Parallel implementation with Phase 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 Initiatives Segment clients and create differentiated business models to improve client service experience Introduce streamlined credit processes Lift performance of bottom quartile centres Better align distribution footprint to client needs Realise segment specific share targets Build client service and sales skills

23 23 No change to credit standards Owner Occupied Investment $bn Dec 01Jun 02Dec 02 Composition of Housing Portfolio Consumer PortfolioCommercial Portfolio Bad debt charge as annualised % of unsecured lending balances Bad debt charge as annualised % of secured lending balances Dec 01Jun 02Dec 02 *CBA Equivalent Ratings 29 27 29 15 14 36 39 40 1719 20 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% AAA/AA*ABBBOther 60% invest. grade

24 Platforms for Growth: Funds Management

25 25 The Bank maintains its leadership position in Australian funds under management Group Funds Under Management by Country of Source December 2002 Australian Funds Under Management** by Asset Class December 2002 Total Funds Under Management: $95bn Consisting of: retail $52bn wholesale $38bn retail CMT* $5bn Australian Funds Under Management:$72bn Consisting of: retail $39bn wholesale $28bn retail CMT* $5bn *CMT: cash management trust **Total funds managed in Australia, excluding Colonial First State Property

26 26 Several key trends are shaping the future of the Australian Funds Management industry Strong inherent growth in the funds management market expected, particularly retail Growth of mastertrusts Industry consolidation Institutionalisation of distribution Industry commoditisation Projected Size of Various Product Segments Source: Rice Kachor projections March 2002, include 5% post fee returns, except for DIY (7%) 200 250 300 350 Self Managed Funds Personal Super Unit Trusts Public Sector Funds Wholesale Savings Market Corporate Super Master Trusts Industry Funds Corporate Standalone Funds Allocated Pensions Annuities Insurance Bonds $ Billion Value at 30 June 2001 Projected Value at 30 June 2011

27 27 FirstChoice has been further enhanced... and other initiatives are underway $m Realise integration benefits, including further rationalisation of legacy systems Offer increased style diversification Leverage internal distribution opportunities Leverage scale to reduce costs Grow alternate asset classes Increase reputation as manager of international shares FirstChoiceOther Strategic Initiatives

28 Platforms for Growth: Life Insurance

29 29 The Bank has a strong presence in life insurance, and a number of opportunities Source: Tillinghast, December 2002 By Channel Market Size and Growth Prospects: By Product $m 20022007 projected 20022007 projected Commonwealth Bank Premiums: By Product By Channel

30 30 Focus is on distribution, service and risk pricing Increase internal distribution through PIC’s and BIM’s Repricing of premiums Upskilling of call centre staff Product rationalisation Systems migration

31 Productivity

32 32 Focus is on improving efficiency...to achieve: A better service experience for customers, through greatly improved turnaround times Elimination of duplication and inefficiencies Annualised benefits of $159m, following an incremental net cost of ~$143m in FY2003 Four productivity initiatives... Remove back-office functions from branches Streamline Business Banking processes Rationalise investment products & systems Organisational design

33 Credit Suisse First Boston 2003 Asian Investment Conference Stuart Grimshaw Chief Financial Officer 25-28 March 2003 www.commbank.com.au

34 34 9% growth in lending assets Lending Assets**: ** Excludes securitised housing loan balances $5.9b (Dec 02), $7.0b (Jun 02), $5.7b (Dec 01). HousingPersonalBusiness & Corporate $ billion Bank Acceptances 155 161 169

35 35 A number of one offs impacted funds under management $bn 106 95 98 (1) (5) (2) 2(4) (1) Underlying reduction of $8bn One off reduction of net $3bn

36 36 Shareholder Funds in Life Insurance Companies: investment reflect underlying nature of the business Income $0.5 billion $2.1 billion 51% 49% Growth $2.6 billion 74% 26% 54%46% *Risk includes traditional, investment account, annuities, personal risk and group risk.

37 37 Continuing sound asset quality

38 38 * Includes Colonial $millions The Bank remains well provisioned

39 39 Arrears in consumer book remain at low levels Loans Accruing past 90 days or more 30/06/01 31/12/01 30/06/02 31/12/02 $m $m $m $m Housing Loans 218 168 176 136 Other Loans 90 79 7375 Total 308 247 249211 Housing loans arrears rate 30/06/01 31/12/01 30/06/02 31/12/02 Housing Loans accruing but past 90 days or more $m 218 168 176136 Housing loan balances $m 73,511 79,745 85,83993,545 Arrears rate % 0.30% 0.21% 0.21%0.15%

40 40 Commercial Portfolio: large exposures are mostly investment grade Dec 2000 Dec 2001 Dec 2002 Top 20 exposures as a % of Total Committed Exposure Committed Exposure ($m) 31 December 2002

41 41 Credit Exposure - Energy Sector 80% 7% 3% 10% Australia (73% investment grade) Asia (94% investment grade) North America (58% investment grade) Other (97% investment grade) $3,411m 278 509 1,981 643 $m

42 42 Credit Exposure - Telcos Sector 72% 13% 4% 11% Australia (72% investment grade) Asia (100% investment grade) North America (100% investment grade) Other (64% investment grade) $1,509m 175 186 738 410 $m

43 43 Credit Exposure - Technology Sector 86% 9% 4% $1,114m 275 35 798 6 $m Australia (68% investment grade) North America (100% investment grade) Other (99% investment grade)

44 44 Credit Exposure - Agriculture Sector 74% 26% $7,673m 1,540 5,569 $m Australia (10% investment grade) New Zealand (3% investment grade) 254 310

45 45 Group FUM across asset classes As at 31 December 2002


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