1. Utilizing Data from a Science Mission in an Operational Environment Prospects for NASA/STEREO D.A. Biesecker NOAA/Space Environment Center

2. Outline Lessons learned from previous missions –SOHO –ACE STEREO overview –Instruments, orbit, schedule –Real-time beacon What we expect from STEREO –Immediate impact; longer term utility

3. ACE and SOHO NASA/ESA research assets –Provide significant advantages to forecasters You should hear the forecasters ‘rave’ –It didn’t just happen It took work and it took publicity –Providing impetus for the next generation of SWx

4. SOHO I’m pretty certain nobody expected SOHO to have real- time space weather utility SOHO team ‘sold’ the utility of the data to SEC –Jan 1997 event a prime example

5. January 1997 The 6 Jan 97 halo CME –reported by D. Michels to ISTP Meeting at NASA/GSFC Based on ‘halo’ nature, front- side activity, and speed, it was predicted to arrive at Earth on Jan 10 th It did arrive on 10 Jan. –May have resulted in Telstar 401 satellite failure Lanzerotti et al (1999) doubts this Based on this event and subsequent halo CME’s the SOHO team ‘sold’ the utility of the data to SEC

6. SOHO – Lessons Learned Even though the utility was clear, would it work for forecasters? Reliability –The ground data processing system is ‘robust enough’ –LASCO team works hard to ensure SEC needs are met Latency –1-4 day arrival means that lack of continuous contact is not a problem Worked with SOHO teams to ensure rapid access to data and for simple analysis tools –LASCO team issues Halo CME alerts with relevant measurements In a format consistent with existing SEC systems Not always in the time needed, so SEC sometimes does its own analysis –LASCO team assisted SEC with setting this up Currently use EIT, LASCO and MDI

7. Lessons Learned - ACE Directly comparable to STEREO First data in 1997 –Worked before launch to ensure continuous receipt of data –Global ground station network meets this need –ground processing brings data directly to SEC Keys to forecast center use –Reliability 24/7 – almost –Latency – commensurate with timescale of alert/warning/watch/forecast TRACKING SWEPAM

8. Shock Associated Energetic Ion Enhancements (EIE) Shock Arrival CME Observed EIE Begins Shock accelerated protons arrive ahead of the source –seen at L1 hours before transient arrival - up to 24 hours As shock approaches, flux of accelerated particles increases –EIE typically peaks with the shock arrival Peak Intensity of EIE flux correlated with geomagnetic response –Can we use EIE flux as a predictor of geomagnetic activity from transients? –Define an EIE flux threshold to forecast major to severe geomagnetic storming

9. Forecast Study EIE’s were well known, but no quantitative studies had ever been conducted –What was the relationship between EIE flux and K P ? –Could forecasters distinguish shock associated protons from high speed wind stream associated protons Reviewed EPAM data (47-65 keV): Apr 98 - Dec 00 –EIE flux of 10 4 particle flux units (pfu) marked onset of “event” Identified EIE sources and categorized into Transient, High Speed Stream (HSS) –Recorded a total of 109 events –83 Transients, 21 HSS, and 5 Unknown –Used Transients and Unknown (88) to compute statistics Correlated peak EIE flux with geomagnetic response –5  10 5 pfu best threshold to predict major-severe storms

10. Study Results EIE Max  5  10 5 Kp=5 -> G1

11. Forecast Contingency Tables - Kp 14 6 15 53 Forecast Y N Y N Observed EIE: 5  10 5 / Kp  7- 16 4 33 40 Forecast Y N Y N Observed EIE: 5  10 5 / Kp  6- 23 27 6 32 Forecast Y N Y N Observed EIE: 1  10 5 / Kp  7- 30 20 19 24 Forecast Y N Y N Observed EIE: 1  10 5 / Kp  6- Hit False Alarm Miss Hit Forecast Y N Y N Observed Legend Tables show results of using EIE flux threshold to forecast the given parameter

12. Forecast Contingency Tables - Ap 14 6 11 47 Forecast Y N Y N Observed EIE: 5  10 5 / Ap  50 20 29 5 24 Forecast Y N Y N Observed EIE: 1  10 5 / Ap  50 18 2 27 34 Forecast Y N Y N Observed EIE: 5  10 5 / Ap  30 31 18 14 18 Forecast Y N Y N Observed EIE: 1  10 5 / Ap  30 Hit False Alarm Miss Hit Forecast Y N Y N Observed Legend Tables show results of using EIE flux threshold to forecast the given parameter

13. ACE use in operations

14. STEREO Twin spacecraft in heliocentric orbits –Remote sensing of sun and heliosphere –In-situ solar wind and energetic particles –Launched Oct 26, 2006 Understand the causes and mechanisms of coronal mass ejection (CME) initiation Characterize the propagation of CMEs through the heliosphere Discover the mechanisms and sites of energetic particle acceleration in the low corona and the interplanetary medium Improved determination of the structure of the ambient solar wind

15. TWO NEARLY IDENTICAL OBSERVATORIES IMPACT Solar Wind Electron Analyzer (SWEA) 1.1m X 2.0 m X 1.2 m 610 kg 600 W (EOL)

16. A Unique Vantage Point Sun Earth Ahead @ +22  /year Behind @ -22  /year Heliocentric Inertial Coordinates (Ecliptic Plane Projection) Ahead Behind Earth 1 yr. 2 yr. 3 yr. 4 yr. 1yr. 2yr. 3 yr. 4 yr. 5 yr.

17. Getting there Mission Timeline Launch: Oct. 26 ~ 0 UT S1: Dec 15, 2006 S2: Jan 21, 2006 Lunar Orbit +22°/yr Behind -22°/yr Ahead 4.5 Revolutions in Phasing Orbit First lunar swingby, S1 –Ahead escapes –Behind spacecraft enters 1 month ‘outer loop’ Second lunar swingby, S2 –Behind escapes  To Sun A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 S1 S2 Earth

18. PLASTIC http://stereo.sr.unh.edu/stereo.html http://stereo.sr.unh.edu/stereo.html The Solar Wind –measures ions in the energy-per-charge range of 0.2 to 100 keV/e –measures the distribution functions of solar wind protons and alphas (providing density, velocity, kinetic temperature and its anisotropy) –elemental composition, charge state distribution, kinetic temperature, and velocity of the more abundant solar wind heavy ions (e.g., C, O, Ne, Mg, Si, and Fe). –distribution functions of suprathermal ions H through Fe Density Speed Temperature Think: ACE/SWEPAM

19. IMPACT http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/impact/ http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/impact/ suite of seven instruments Energetic particles and mag field –the 3-D distribution of solar wind plasma electrons –the characteristics of SEP ions and electrons –and the local vector magnetic field. Think ACE/EPAM and ACE/MAG BTBT BzBz electrons protons

20. SWAVES http://www-lep.gsfc.nasa.gov/swaves/swaves.html http://www-lep.gsfc.nasa.gov/swaves/swaves.html measures interplanetary type II and type III radio bursts, both remotely and in situ Think Learmonth, Culgoora etc…

21. SECCHI EUVI COR1 – 1.25-4 Rsun COR2 – 2-15 Rsun HI1 (13-88 Rsun) – in ecliptic plane HI2 (70-330 Rsun) >1AU – in ecliptic plane

22. STEREO Beacon All instruments will be sending down a subset of their science data in a real-time, broadcast mode –633 bps These data will be processed at the STEREO Science Center (SSC) at GSFC –http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/ –data will then be available to SEC (and everyone else) We ‘control’ the STEREO/SECCHI beacon data content. –That is, the image data sent in real-time can be changed at any time The PLASTIC, IMPACT, and SWAVES data are fixed –1 and 5 minute averages

23. SPICE kernels Space Weather Beacon Processing APL MOC Packet Handling Application Instrument Specific Applications Display, Serve, Archive, Browse S/C Transfer Frame Handling Application NOAA & Public SSC S/WAVES SECCHI (NRL) “C” to assemble image from packets; IDL to decompress IMPACT (UCB) estimates 5000 lines of “C” for MAG, SWEA, STE (Caltech) SEP (UNH) IDL code for PLASTIC (UCLA) coordinate transforms for MAG Real-Time Off-line NOAA Antenna Partners Real-Time and Off-line PLASTIC SWAVESlib IDL package

24. Ground Station Coverage DSN FAI BOU WAL TOU KOG RAL It’s insufficient to ensure reliable 24/7 from two spacecraft

25. STEREO Schedule Dec 5, 2006 –SECCHI Ahead First Light –Beacon turned on, though not permanently Dec 13, 2006 –SECCHI Behind First Light –Beacon turned on, though not permanently Jan 22, 2007 –Prime science mission begins –Beacon turned on permanently

26. Coronal Mass Ejections Currently: SOHO/LASCO –Halo CME’s 1-4 day advance warning of geomagnetic storm Uncertain hit/miss estimate for ‘partial’ halo CME’s error of ±11 hours in arrival time rough estimate of intensity and duration STEREO –3-d views of CME’s 1-4 day advance warning of geomagnetic storm Continuous observation as CME propagates from Sun to Earth Reliable hit/miss prediction Potential for prediction of arrival time to within hours Improved estimate for storm duration

27. Recurring Solar Wind Structures Currently –For first time stream – estimate from longitude –Recurring stream – use previous occurrence and changes in coronal hole since then – 27 days STEREO – Lagging spacecraft –Use actual observation from ~few days earlier –Improved start time of high speed wind –Improved end time of high speed wind –Determination of high speed wind properties (e.g. velocity, mag field) STEREO ACE

28. Costello Kp Prediction Currently –ACE driven –Predicts next 1-2 hours of Kp STEREO –Lagging spacecraft –Potentially provide ~ 1 day prediction of Kp

29. SEP events Event profile depends on observer position relative to event source STEREO LAGGING EARTH STEREO LEADING W90 W17E42

30. Long-term Forecasts Current – up to 7 day lead STEREO – 14 or more day lead –EUV Flux –New equatorial coronal holes –New active regions Helioseismology backside imaging –Level of flaring activity Get an estimate from backsided CME’s

31. The Far Future STEREO will be of ‘limited’ operational use in forecasting – due to short mission lifetime (2+3yrs) –But it should take current capabilities to I think of this as a proof of concept for future NOAA observations. –Advances of understanding will enable us to determine requirements for future NOAA missions –When technologies such as solar sails are mature, missions like STEREO could be common. e.g. L5

32. Thank you

33. Backup Slides

34. Geometric Localization

35. SECCHI Russ Howard (NRL) Suite of imaging telescopes –EUVI (4 channels: 171, 195, 284, 304) –COR1 – inner coronagraph (~1.5-4 Rsun) –COR2 – outer coronagraph (2-15 Rsun) –HI-1 and HI-2 – Heliospheric imagers Imaging of flares, coronal holes, and CME’s, EUV dimmings and waves… –Tracking CME’s from Sun to Earth

36. SECCHI Beacon Data SECCHI Beacon data rate is 633 bps That allows 7 (256x256 pixel) images per hour, using H-compress (a factor of 5x) –And we could download image statistics, such as brightest pixels or CME detection flag –Can fit a lot more 128x128 pixel images per hour We don’t determine which data are taken –We pick beacon data from what’s available in the daily observing plan –Pick from EUVI, COR1, COR2, HI-1, HI-2

37. STEREO will see more of the Sun LAG 2 yrs LEAD 2 yrs LAG 4 yrsLEAD 4 yrs

38. Tracking CME’s Tracking CME’s from Sun to Earth

39. What is the SSC? The SSC performs the following functions 1.Collects telemetry and processed data, archives it, and serves it on the web. 2.Receives beacon data from the DSN and NOAA antenna partners, processes it, and makes space weather products available in near real-time. 3.Focal point for science coordination 4.Focal point for education and public outreach. In addition, through interaction with the SOLAR Software Library, the SSC can act as a focal point for software coordination.

40. SSC Roles and Responsibilities Operations Manage shared instrument resources Telemetry rates Command buffer Oversee coordination of science plans Archive Collect telemetry and ancillary data from MOC Collect processed data from instrument teams Serve data on web Space Weather Collect telemetry from DSN, antenna partners Process and serve on web E/PO/PAO Interact with instrument teams and educators for E/PO Coordinate press releases with NASA/GSFC PAO office

41. Applicable STEREO Research Geometric Localization of STEREO CMEs (V. Pizzo, D. Biesecker – NOAA; Pizzo and Biesecker, 2004) –A tool utilizing a series of lines of sight from two views to define the location, shape, size and velocity of a CME. This is to be automated and used to decide whether and when a CME will impact Earth. WSA Model Predictions (N. Arge – Air Force Research Laboratory; J. Luhmann – Univ. of California-Berkeley; D. Biesecker – NOAA; Arge and Pizzo, 2000) –The Wang-Sheeley-Arge and ENLIL 3D MHD solar wind models will be integrated. The combined model will provide routine predictions of vector solar wind velocity, density, temperature and magnetic polarity anywhere desired in the inner heliosphere. This model will be driven by ground-based magnetograph data. CME Detection: CACTUS – Computer Aided CME Tracking (E. Robbrecht, D. Berghmans; Royal Observatory of Belgium; Robbrecht and Berghmans, 2005) –A near real-time tool for detecting CMEs in SECCHI images. The output is a quicklook CME catalog with measurements of time, width, speed, and near real-time CME warnings. It has been successfully tested on LASCO data and the tool is available at http://sidc.oma.be/cactus. SEEDS – Solar Eruptive Event Detection System (J. Zhang; George Mason Univ.) –A tool for detecting, classifying and analyzing CMEs in SECCHI images. The output is an automatically generated CME catalog with measurements of time, width, speed, and near real-time CME warnings. It is being tested on LASCO data. On-board Automatic CME Detection Algorithm (E. De Jong, P. Liewer, J. Hall, J. Lorre, NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory; R. Howard, Naval Research Laboratory) –An algorithm based on feature tracking which uses two successive images to determine whether or not a CME has occurred. The algorithm is intended to be run on-board the spacecraft.

42. Applicable STEREO Research Computer Aided EUVI Wave and Dimming Detection (O. Podladchikova, D. Berghmans, A. Zhukov – Royal Observatory Belgium; Podladchikova and Berghmans, 2005) –A near real-time tool for detecting EUV waves and dimming regions. It is being tested on SOHO EIT images. Velocity Map Construction (J. Hochedez, S. Gissot – Royal Observatory Belgium) –A program to analyze velocity flows on SECCHI images and to detect CME onsets & EUV waves. Also produces near-realtime warnings of fast CMEs and reconstructs 3D velocity maps of CMEs from 2D maps from each STEREO spacecraft. Automatic Solar Feature Classification (D. Rust, P. Bernasconi – Johns Hopkins University/Applied Physics Laboratory) –A tool for detecting and characterizing solar filaments and sigmoids using recognition and classification in solar images. The goal is to measure magnetic helicity parameters and forecast eruptions using filaments and sigmoids.

43. Applicable STEREO Research Enabling Research Identifying and Tracking CMEs with the Heliospheric Imagers (R. Harrison, C. Davis – Rutherford Appleton Laboratory) –A tool that uses triangulation to measure the speed and direction of CMEs in order to forecast their arrival at Earth. Simulations will be used to show how model CMEs can be identified and tracked with the HIs. Structural Context of the Heliosphere Using SMEI Data (D. Webb – Boston College/Air Force Research Laboratory; B. Jackson – Univ. of California-San Diego; e.g. Jackson et al., 2006) –A tool that uses analyses of SMEI images to provide structural context of the heliosphere, especially for the HIs. It will also provide complementary observations of transient disturbances, especially those that are Earth-directed. Interplanetary Acceleration of ICMEs (M. Owens – Boston University) –A program to construct acceleration profiles of fast ICMEs over a large heliocentric range using multi-point HI measurements to understand the forces acting on ejecta. This tool will aid in improved prediction of ICME arrival times at Earth. Relationship Between CMEs and Magnetic Clouds (S. Matthews – Mullard Space Science Lab.) –A project to assess the potential geoeffectiveness of CMEs based on their association with magnetic clouds. This project is intended to determine which particular characteristics lead to the production of a magnetic cloud. 3-dimensional Structure of CMEs (V. Bothmer, H. Cremades – University of Goettingen; D. Tripathi – Cambridge University; Cremades and Bothmer, 2004) –A program to compare analysis of SECCHI images on the internal magnetic field configuration and near-Sun evolution of CMEs with models based on SOHO observations. The goal is to forecast flux rope structure and make 3-dimensional visualizations of CMEs.

44. Applicable STEREO Research Data Browsers and Viewers STEREO Science Center Real-Time Data Pages (W. Thompson – GSFC) –The main public website for viewing real-time STEREO data. Available at the following URL: http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/mockup/latest_mockup.shtml Solar Weather Browser (B. Nicula, D. Berghmans, R. van der Linden – Royal Observatory Belgium) –A user-friendly browser tool for finding and displaying solar data and related context information. The tool is available at http://sidc.oma.be/SWB/. STEREO Key Parameter Browser (C. Russell & IMPACT, PLASTIC & SWAVES teams; UCLA) –An easily browseable merged key parameter data display including the in-situ and SWAVES radio data. Carrington Rotation In-situ Browser (J. Luhmann, P. Schroeder – Univ. of California-Berkeley) –A browser for identifying in-situ events and their solar sources over Carrington Rotation time scales. It includes near-Earth (ACE) data sets for third point views and image movies from SECCHI and SOHO (near- Earth). See: http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/impact/data_browser.html. JAVA-3D Synoptic Information Viewer (J. Luhmann, P. Schroeder – Univ. of California-Berkeley) –A JAVA applet for viewing 3-dimensional Sun and solar wind data based on synoptic solar maps and potential field models of the coronal magnetic field. Radio and CME Data Pages (M. Pick, M. Maksimovic, J.L. Bougeret, A. Lecacheux, R. Romagan, A. Bouteille – Observatoire de Paris-Meudon) –A collection of ground radio imaging, spectra and movies, as well as SWAVES and SECCHI summary data on CMEs. Available at (need URL)…

45. SEC’s Big List SEC HIGHEST PRIORITY NEEDS 1,2,3 SEC HIGH PRIORITY NEEDS 1,2,3 SEP event forecasts, including start and end time, peak flux, time of peak, spectrum, fluence and probability of occurrence Visualization of disturbances in interplanetary space Solar wind data from L1 or further upstreamGeomagnetic activity predictions (1-7 days) Solar coronagraph dataGeomagnetic storm end time forecast Energetic e‾ flux prediction for the International Space StationReal-time estimates of geomagnetic indices Regional geomagnetic activity nowcasts and forecastsReal-time quality diagnostics (verification) of all warning/watch/forecast products Ionospheric maps of Total Electron Content and scintillation (nowcast and forecast) Statistical/numerical guidance for all forecast quantities Geomagnetic indices (Ap, Kp, Dst) and probability forecastsMagnetopause crossing forecasts based on L1 data Solar particle degradation of polar HF radio propagation (nowcast and forecast) Short-term (days) F10.7 and X-ray flare forecasts Background solar wind predictionImproved image analysis capability EUV index