1. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 1 Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and International Technology Transfer: A Survey Kamal Saggi The World Bank Development Research Group Trade May 2000 Presented by Group 1

2. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 2Introduction Economic growth results: –Accumulation of factors of production (Traditional trade growth) –Improvement from technology –Both Technologies resulted from R&D spread throughout the world: –International trade in technology –Indirect channels (trade in goods and international movement of factors of products) –Foreign direct investment

3. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 3 Knowledge spillovers through trade Traditional growth theory sought the explanation of economic growth in terms of accumulation of capitalTraditional growth theory sought the explanation of economic growth in terms of accumulation of capital Neoclassical growth models assume costless technology transfer by positing a common production function across countriesNeoclassical growth models assume costless technology transfer by positing a common production function across countries Parente and Precoscott(1994):Parente and Precoscott(1994): –Emphasized barriers to technology adoption: legal, regulatory, political and social factors –Suggested that trade may affect growth by lowering barriers to technology adoption The new growth theory emphasizes endogenous technological change and human capitalThe new growth theory emphasizes endogenous technological change and human capital –It is R&D based models of economic growth –Two widely used strands of R&D based endogenous growth models are: –‘varieties only model’ –‘quality ladder model’

4. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 4 ‘Variety model’ assumes: –Growth is sustained in a closed economy –The creation of new products expands the knowledge stock –Then lowers the cost of innovation (increased competition) ‘Quality ladders model’ assumes: –Open economy growth model –Consumers are willing to pay for higher quality of products –Firms always have incentives to improve the quality of products –Every successful innovation allows all firms to study the attributes of the product and improve upon it –Patent rights restrict a firm producing a product invented by some other firm but not form using the knowledge –Knowledge spillovers ensure that anyone can try to invent a higher quality version of the same product –Trade in goods can help transmit knowledge internationally Knowledge spillovers through trade ctd..

5. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 5 There are two strands of multi-country models of endogenous growth:There are two strands of multi-country models of endogenous growth: –Those that study trade between identical countries North- North), and –Those that have a North-South structure North-South emphasize on the product cycle nature of tradeNorth-South emphasize on the product cycle nature of trade –New products are invented in the North –Firms in the south can successfully undercut Northern producer once they succeed in imitating Northern products –Post imitation all products are imported by the North –These models capture technology driven and have been generalized to consider technology transfer more explicitly

6. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 6 Scope of knowledge spillovers: –National or international –Primarily local –R &D based models: Knowledge spillover substantially to other countriesKnowledge spillover substantially to other countries Trade is an important channel of such spilloversTrade is an important channel of such spillovers Knowledge spillover shouldn’t be limited to geographical location andKnowledge spillover shouldn’t be limited to geographical location and the role of innovator to controlling technology spreadingthe role of innovator to controlling technology spreading the potential buyers and imitators should the potential buyers and imitators should

7. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 7 Explaining FDI: Location and Mode of production Two distinct questions that a firm seeking to serve foreign market: –Location of production a.Produce at home country and export b.If Produce abroad (issue of technology transfer) –Extremes: wholly owned subsidiaries to licensing Export vs. production Two approaches of explaining foreign markets: a.Theoretical models (Economics literature) b.Empirical models

8. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 8 Economic literatureEconomic literature –the choice between export and FDI are substitutes Empirical literature uncovers the complementary relationship between exports and foreign affiliate sales( at industry and micro levels)Empirical literature uncovers the complementary relationship between exports and foreign affiliate sales( at industry and micro levels) Blonigen(1999) using a study of product data:Blonigen(1999) using a study of product data: –Complementary trade between intermediate goods and affiliate sales –The substitutability of export of final goods and FDI Existing theoretical models strategic consideration for choice between exports and FDI as:Existing theoretical models strategic consideration for choice between exports and FDI as: –A tariff jumping motive for FDI –Interdependence of decision making between multinational firms –Are well developed to make static decision between export and production

9. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 9 In exploring optional strategies empirical studies: –The dynamic problem and exporters behavior –Prior exporting experience( the role of sunk costs) –Saggi(1997): Two period models in the face of demand uncertainty (If a significant portion of the fixed cost of FDI is sunk, it is optimal for a firm to export) Lessons from the success and failure of others, Lessons from the success and failure of others, –Lack of prior experience –Complexity surrounding FDI (operational conditions like: labor market literacy and productivity of the labor force timely availability as well as quality of inputs) –Information is gathered either through one’s own experience or through the experience of others While the degree of fixed/sunk costs may play a role in determining the choice between licensing,joint ventures, and determining the choice between licensing,joint ventures, and FDI other considerations are probably more important FDI other considerations are probably more important

10. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 10 Mode of Operation: Licensing, Joint Venture and FDI Knowledge-capital model: –Knowledge is a public good –Any innovation applied at multiple plants all over the world. –Internalization: the incentive to prevent dissipation of knowledge based assets multinationals transfer technologies via direct investment Empirical paper: focuses on intra-trade differences in R&D intensity as a determinant mode of entry chosen by the firms –Protecting technology of high tech industries –Low technology sectors for joint venture Horstmann and Markusen’s(1996) model: Potential local firms (licensee) have better information about local demand Such agency costs can be utilized to explain the dynamics of optimal entry modes Therefore foreign firms initially licensing and later on terminate licensing agreement to avoid agency cost if there is demand Licensing is a method of information acquisition on the part of foreign firm about uncertainly demand

11. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 11 FDI;TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER & SPILLOVERS Dominance of FDI as a channel of technology transferDominance of FDI as a channel of technology transfer FDI as a vehicle of spillovers in LDCsFDI as a vehicle of spillovers in LDCs Channels of Spillovers;Channels of Spillovers; –Demonstration Effects –Labour Turnover –Vertical Linkages

12. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 12 FACILITATION OF TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION (Demonstration Effect) demonstration effect argument states that exposure to the superior technology of multinational firms may lead local firms to update their own production methods.demonstration effect argument states that exposure to the superior technology of multinational firms may lead local firms to update their own production methods. –FDI may expand the set of technologies available to local firms

13. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 13 More attention given to direct imitation and reverse engineering as channels of inter-firm technology diffusion,More attention given to direct imitation and reverse engineering as channels of inter-firm technology diffusion, –the role of labor turnover has been rather neglected. Labour turnover differs from these channels because knowledge embodied in workers moves across firms only through the physical movement of workers.Labour turnover differs from these channels because knowledge embodied in workers moves across firms only through the physical movement of workers. FACILITATION OF TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION (Labour Turnover)

14. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 14 multinationals have an incentive to limit diffusion of their technology to local rivalsmultinationals have an incentive to limit diffusion of their technology to local rivals Local competition policy may also affect labor turnoverLocal competition policy may also affect labor turnover Labor turnover rates may vary at the industry level as wellLabor turnover rates may vary at the industry level as well FACILITATION OF TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION (Labour Turnover)

15. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 15 multinationals may benefit the host economy via the backward and forward linkages that they generatemultinationals may benefit the host economy via the backward and forward linkages that they generate FACILITATION OF TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION (Vertical Linkages& Technology Transfer)

16. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 16 SPILLOVERS FROM FDI: (A RECAPITULATION) Regarding technology spillovers from FDI, how can they ever be in the interest of the multinational firms? entry of multinationals may indeed be beneficial for host countries even though it fails to result in much in the way of spillovers for local firms.

17. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 17 FDI & GROWTH FDI is attracted to countries that are expected to grow faster simply because it yields higher returns thereFDI is attracted to countries that are expected to grow faster simply because it yields higher returns there An optimistic view of FDI would then look to technology transfer and/or spillovers as the mechanism through which FDI may affect growth.An optimistic view of FDI would then look to technology transfer and/or spillovers as the mechanism through which FDI may affect growth.

18. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 18 ROLE OF POLICY TRADE POLICY: interaction between protection and technology transfer has not received significant attention temporary protection (i.e. protection that is removed upon successful adoption by the domestic firm) actually delays the date of technology adoption. FDI POLICIES: No simple way of describing policy environment facing multinationals FDI was either completely prohibited or multinational firms had to operate under severe restrictions

19. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 19 INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS (IPR): if any policy variable should affect international technology transfer, it ought to be the host country's intellectual property rights (IPRs) regime. ROLE OF POLICY

20. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 20CONCLUSIONS Role of trade in encouraging growth hinges critically on the geographical scope (national versus international) of knowledge spilloverRole of trade in encouraging growth hinges critically on the geographical scope (national versus international) of knowledge spillover Little is known about the relative role of trade and FDI as mechanisms of technology transferLittle is known about the relative role of trade and FDI as mechanisms of technology transfer A well-developed paradigm seeks to explain the emergence of multinational firms, givenA well-developed paradigm seeks to explain the emergence of multinational firms, given the existence of viable alternatives such as exports, licensing, and joint ventures.

21. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 21 Local policy frequently makes pure FDI infeasible forcing foreign firms to opt for licensing or joint ventureLocal policy frequently makes pure FDI infeasible forcing foreign firms to opt for licensing or joint venture Policies designed to lure in FDI have proliferated in recent years.Policies designed to lure in FDI have proliferated in recent years. Several studies (both theoretical and empirical) indicate that absorptive capacity in the host country is crucial for obtaining significant benefits from FDISeveral studies (both theoretical and empirical) indicate that absorptive capacity in the host country is crucial for obtaining significant benefits from FDICONCLUSIONS

22. Institute of Housing and Urban Development Studies (IHS) Financing Cities in a Global Economy (FCG) 22 Discussions & Questions ?