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US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® Temperature Target and Evaluation Criteria of the Middle Fork Willamette River Dan Turner Environmental Engineer.

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Presentation on theme: "US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® Temperature Target and Evaluation Criteria of the Middle Fork Willamette River Dan Turner Environmental Engineer."— Presentation transcript:

1 US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® Temperature Target and Evaluation Criteria of the Middle Fork Willamette River Dan Turner Environmental Engineer Portland January 27, 2015

2 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 2 Outline  Overview  Operational Target update  Evaluation Criteria  Discussion  Preliminary Alternative Analysis Goal: elicit feedback in time to solidify operational target and evaluation criteria by 60% draft (due in March)

3 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 3 Middle Fork Willamette  3 dams ► Hills Creek ► Lookout Point ► Dexter http://www.nwd-wc.usace.army.mil/nwp/teacup/willamette/ Big Cliff Detroit

4 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 4 Overview  Middle Fork Willamette Downstream Fish Passage and Water Quality / Temperature Control Alternatives Study  Temperature analysis based on water quality model scenarios  Temperature targets I need: ► Operational target (aka model input target) ► Alternative evaluation criteria  Continuation of previous meetings …

5 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 5 Update: Operational Target  Used to guide operations (either model or real) on a specific day.  Time variable, instantaneous temperature  Sets a goal, like a rule curve  Determines how much flow should be passed through different outlets

6 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 6 Update: Operational Target

7 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 7 Alternative Evaluation Criteria  Used to evaluate temperature impacts after the fact.  Should highlight important times and places  Proposing using the percent of days not achieving (daily mean temperature). UseDate Range Impact Type criteria (°C) criteria (°F)Reference MigrationMay-01 to Jul-15delay< 11.1< 52.0From sub-group, based on run timing and temperature HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15acute> 19.5> 67.1Approx. maximum ‘upstream mix’ calc. d/s Dexter (mean 19.8) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15chronic> 16.0> 60.8ODEQ core cold water criteria SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15acute> 15.6> 60.1Same as incubation SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15chronic> 13.0> 55.4NFMS comment on 30% report; ODEQ spawning criteria IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31acute> 15.6> 60.1From sub-group, based on experimentation (Taylor) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31chronic> 10.1> 50.2NFMS comment on 30% EmergenceSep-20 plus 1750 ATUsearly< ‘no dam’ calc.Standard reporting metric in annual report.

8 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 8 Hills Creek Reservoir outflow baseline data Use Date Range Impact Type criteria (deg. C) criteria (deg. F) % days not achieving criteria MigrationMay-01 to Jul-15delay< 11.1< 52.0 100 (100 - 100) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15acute> 19.5> 67.10 (0 - 0) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15chronic> 16.0> 60.80 (0 - 16) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15acute> 15.6> 60.10 (0 - 100) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15chronic> 13.0> 55.467 (24 - 100) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31acute> 15.6> 60.10 (0 - 40) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31chronic> 10.1> 50.266 (49 - 75) EmergenceSep-20 plus 1750 ATUs-- Dec-08 (Nov-24 - Jan-05)

9 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 9 Upstream Mix (‘no dam’) Calculation  ‘Without Project’ estimate of temperature  Function of: ► upstream temperature measurements ► ratio of flow between tributaries ► 0.11 °C / mile maximum warming ► Assumptions that ungaged tributaries are insignificant or similar to gaged tributaries  Based on Rounds 2010

10 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 10 Hills Creek Reservoir outflow upstream mix calculation Use Date Range Impact Type criteria (deg. C) criteria (deg. F) % days not achieving criteria MigrationMay-01 to Jul-15delay< 11.1< 52.043 (3 - 88) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15acute> 19.5> 67.1 0 (0 - 4) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15chronic> 16.0> 60.8 18 (0 - 74) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15acute> 15.6> 60.1 0 (0 - 53) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15chronic> 13.0> 55.4 31 (0 - 89) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31acute> 15.6> 60.1 0 (0 - 20) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31chronic> 10.1> 50.2 33 (13 - 65) EmergenceSep-20 plus 1750 ATUs-- Feb-17 (Dec-17 - Apr-30)

11 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 11 Dexter Reservoir outflow baseline data Use Date Range Impact Type criteria (deg. C) criteria (deg. F) % days not achieving criteria MigrationMay-01 to Jul-15delay< 11.1< 52.043 (0 - 74) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15acute> 19.5> 67.1 0 (0 - 0) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15chronic> 16.0> 60.8 10 (0 - 47) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15acute> 15.6> 60.1 91 (0 - 100) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15chronic> 13.0> 55.4 100 (100 - 100) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31acute> 15.6> 60.1 34 (0 - 47) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31chronic> 10.1> 50.2 70 (61 - 83) EmergenceSep-20 plus 1750 ATUs-- Nov-29 (Nov-19 - Dec-20)

12 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 12 Dexter Reservoir outflow upstream mix calculation Use Date Range Impact Type criteria (deg. C) criteria (deg. F) % days not achieving criteria MigrationMay-01 to Jul-15delay< 11.1< 52.042 (16 - 74) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15acute> 19.5> 67.1 5 (0 - 38) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15chronic> 16.0> 60.8 54 (26 - 62) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15acute> 15.6> 60.1 36 (2 - 53) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15chronic> 13.0> 55.4 67 (49 - 82) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31acute> 15.6> 60.1 13 (1 - 20) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31chronic> 10.1> 50.2 35 (24 - 40) EmergenceSep-20 plus 1750 ATUs-- Feb-17 (Jan-07 - Apr-02)

13 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 13 Evaluation locations  Middle Fork Willamette River: ► Downstream Hills Creek ► Downstream of Salt Creek confluence ► Downstream of Salmon Creek confluence ► Downstream of the North Fork of the Middle Fork confluence ► Upstream of Lookout Point Reservoir ► Downstream Dexter Dam

14 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 14 Operational target v. evaluation criteria

15 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 15 Questions and Discussion

16 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 16 OperationsStructures Minimum Power (%) Max Lake Elevation (ft) ScenarioHCLLOPHCLLOPHCLLOPNotes noBlend100% 1541926existing base_lopSpillOnly40% 1541926existingno RObase rule curve; base with LOP spill, no RO usage hclSpillwayWs151040% 1510926SpillwayexistingHCL WS at max of 1510 to use spillway more effectively; LOP-DEX base rule curve; Spillway at HCL; 40% minimum power at HCL/LOP hclFloat_pow1300_ noHCLppmin 0%40%1541926float/lower outlet existingFloating outlet at HCL; no HCL minimum power constraint; Lower outlet at 1300 hclFloat_pow1300_ LopFloat_noppmin 0% 1541926float/lower outlet floatFloating outlet at HCL; no HCL minimum power constraint; Lower outlet at 1300 Preliminary Alternatives Each model scenario consists of three years: cool-wet, normal and hot-dry

17 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 17 Hills Creek outflow: noBlend current conditions powerhouse outlet prioritized Use Date Range Impact Type criteria (deg. C) criteria (deg. F) % days not achieving criteria MigrationMay-01 to Jul-15delay< 11.1< 52.0 100 (100 - 100) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15acute> 19.5> 67.1 0 (0 - 0) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15chronic> 16.0> 60.8 0 (0 - 0) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15acute> 15.6> 60.1 0 (0 - 0) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15chronic> 13.0> 55.4 69 (0 - 98) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31acute> 15.6> 60.1 0 (0 - 0) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31chronic> 10.1> 50.2 73 (65 - 78) EmergenceSep-20 plus 1750 ATUs-- Dec-05 (Dec-01 - Dec-12)

18 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 18 Hills Creek outflow: base_lopSpillOnly powerhouse and RO flow optimized to achieve operational target (minimum 40% RO flow) Use Date Range Impact Type criteria (deg. C) criteria (deg. F) % days not achieving criteria MigrationMay-01 to Jul-15delay< 11.1< 52.0 100 (100 - 100) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15acute> 19.5> 67.1 0 (0 - 0) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15chronic> 16.0> 60.8 0 (0 - 0) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15acute> 15.6> 60.1 0 (0 - 0) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15chronic> 13.0> 55.4 60 (0 - 87) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31acute> 15.6> 60.1 0 (0 - 0) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31chronic> 10.1> 50.2 73 (65 - 78) EmergenceSep-20 plus 1750 ATUs-- Dec-05 (Dec-01 - Dec-12)

19 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 19 Hills Creek outflow: hclSpillwayWs1510 Operate the spillway in additional the powerhouse and RO. Hold pool elevation at 1510 ft (normal summer pool at 1541 ft) Use Date Range Impact Type criteria (deg. C) criteria (deg. F) % days not achieving criteria MigrationMay-01 to Jul-15delay< 11.1< 52.0 64 (43 - 78) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15acute> 19.5> 67.1 0 (0 - 0) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15chronic> 16.0> 60.8 0 (0 - 7) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15acute> 15.6> 60.1 0 (0 - 0) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15chronic> 13.0> 55.4 33 (33 - 47) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31acute> 15.6> 60.1 0 (0 - 0) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31chronic> 10.1> 50.2 72 (69 - 75) EmergenceSep-20 plus 1750 ATUs-- Dec-15 (Dec-08 - Dec-25)

20 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 20 Hills Creek outflow: hclFloat_pow1300_Lop Float_noppmin Hypothetical new structures that allow a ‘floating’ outlet and a new deep outlet at 1300 ft (1384 currently deepest) Use Date Range Impact Type criteria (deg. C) criteria (deg. F) % days not achieving criteria MigrationMay-01 to Jul-15delay< 11.1< 52.0 50 (29 - 70) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15acute> 19.5> 67.1 0 (0 - 0) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15chronic> 16.0> 60.8 38 (31 - 43) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15acute> 15.6> 60.1 0 (0 - 0) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15chronic> 13.0> 55.4 33 (33 - 33) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31acute> 15.6> 60.1 0 (0 - 0) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31chronic> 10.1> 50.2 32 (32 - 45) EmergenceSep-20 plus 1750 ATUs-- Jan-08 (Dec-31 - Jan-16)

21 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 21 Thermal blocks downstream of Hills Creek Dam

22 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 22

23 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 23

24 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 24

25 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 25

26 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 26

27 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 27 Mid Fork ds Salmon Cr: noBlend current conditions powerhouse outlet prioritized Use Date Range Impact Type criteria (deg. C) criteria (deg. F) % days not achieving criteria MigrationMay-01 to Jul-15delay< 11.1< 52.0 88 (71 - 100) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15acute> 19.5> 67.1 0 (0 - 0) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15chronic> 16.0> 60.8 0 (0 - 0) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15acute> 15.6> 60.1 0 (0 - 0) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15chronic> 13.0> 55.4 2 (0 - 98) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31acute> 15.6> 60.1 0 (0 - 0) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31chronic> 10.1> 50.2 71 (68 - 74) EmergenceSep-20 plus 1750 ATUs-- Dec-14 (Dec-09 - Dec-25)

28 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 28 Mid Fork ds Salmon Cr: hclSpillwayWs1510 Operate the spillway in additional the powerhouse and RO. Hold pool elevation at 1510 ft (normal summer pool at 1541 ft) Use Date Range Impact Type criteria (deg. C) criteria (deg. F) % days not achieving criteria MigrationMay-01 to Jul-15delay< 11.1< 52.0 64 (43 - 76) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15acute> 19.5> 67.1 0 (0 - 0) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15chronic> 16.0> 60.8 0 (0 - 7) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15acute> 15.6> 60.1 0 (0 - 0) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15chronic> 13.0> 55.4 27 (11 - 31) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31acute> 15.6> 60.1 0 (0 - 0) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31chronic> 10.1> 50.2 69 (58 - 72) EmergenceSep-20 plus 1750 ATUs-- Dec-28 (Dec-18 - Jan-09)

29 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 29 Mid Fork ds Salmon Cr: hclFloat_pow1300_Lop Float_noppmin Hypothetical new structures that allow a ‘floating’ outlet and a new deep outlet at 1300 ft (1384 currently deepest) Use Date Range Impact Type criteria (deg. C) criteria (deg. F) % days not achieving criteria MigrationMay-01 to Jul-15delay< 11.1< 52.0 55 (41 - 72) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15acute> 19.5> 67.1 0 (0 - 0) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15chronic> 16.0> 60.8 28 (17 - 36) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15acute> 15.6> 60.1 0 (0 - 0) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15chronic> 13.0> 55.4 29 (22 - 31) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31acute> 15.6> 60.1 0 (0 - 0) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31chronic> 10.1> 50.2 32 (31 - 33) EmergenceSep-20 plus 1750 ATUs-- Jan-18 (Jan-10 - Jan-27)

30 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 30 Middle Fork Willamette downstream of Dexter Dam

31 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 31 Mid Fork ds Dexter Dam: noBlend current conditions powerhouse outlet prioritized Use Date Range Impact Type criteria (deg. C) criteria (deg. F) % days not achieving criteria MigrationMay-01 to Jul-15delay< 11.1< 52.0 58 (46 - 79) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15acute> 19.5> 67.1 0 (0 - 0) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15chronic> 16.0> 60.8 0 (0 - 9) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15acute> 15.6> 60.1 67 (18 - 100) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15chronic> 13.0> 55.4 100 (100 - 100) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31acute> 15.6> 60.1 25 (7 - 38) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31chronic> 10.1> 50.2 72 (69 - 76) EmergenceSep-20 plus 1750 ATUs-- Nov-29 (Nov-26 - Dec-03)

32 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 32 Mid Fork ds Dexter Dam: base_lopSpillOnly powerhouse and RO flow optimized to achieve operational target (minimum 40% RO flow) Use Date Range Impact Type criteria (deg. C) criteria (deg. F) % days not achieving criteria MigrationMay-01 to Jul-15delay< 11.1< 52.0 51 (4 - 70) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15acute> 19.5> 67.1 0 (0 - 0) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15chronic> 16.0> 60.8 40 (31 - 44) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15acute> 15.6> 60.1 40 (38 - 42) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15chronic> 13.0> 55.4 98 (84 - 100) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31acute> 15.6> 60.1 15 (14 - 16) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31chronic> 10.1> 50.2 71 (68 - 74) EmergenceSep-20 plus 1750 ATUs-- Dec-07 (Dec-02 - Dec-12)

33 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 33 Mid Fork ds Dexter Dam: hclSpillwayWs1510 HCR: operate the spillway in additional the powerhouse and RO. Hold pool elevation at 1510 ft. LOP: 40% min. power (base) Use Date Range Impact Type criteria (deg. C) criteria (deg. F) % days not achieving criteria MigrationMay-01 to Jul-15delay< 11.1< 52.0 50 (25 - 72) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15acute> 19.5> 67.1 0 (0 - 0) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15chronic> 16.0> 60.8 39 (25 - 53) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15acute> 15.6> 60.1 36 (24 - 49) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15chronic> 13.0> 55.4 71 (69 - 71) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31acute> 15.6> 60.1 13 (9 - 18) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31chronic> 10.1> 50.2 72 (68 - 75) EmergenceSep-20 plus 1750 ATUs-- Dec-11 (Dec-05 - Dec-18)

34 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 34 Mid Fork ds Dexter Dam: hclFloat_pow1300_Lop Float_noppmin HCR: Hypothetical new structures that allow a ‘floating’ outlet and a new deep outlet at 1300 ft (1384 currently deepest) LOP: base Use Date Range Impact Type criteria (deg. C) criteria (deg. F) % days not achieving criteria MigrationMay-01 to Jul-15delay< 11.1< 52.0 46 (1 - 66) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15acute> 19.5> 67.1 0 (0 - 0) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15chronic> 16.0> 60.8 43 (38 - 55) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15acute> 15.6> 60.1 40 (38 - 44) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15chronic> 13.0> 55.4 71 (69 - 100) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31acute> 15.6> 60.1 15 (14 - 17) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31chronic> 10.1> 50.2 68 (64 - 70) EmergenceSep-20 plus 1750 ATUs-- Dec-12 (Dec-06 - Dec-18)

35 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 35 Mid Fork ds Dexter Dam: hclFloat_pow1300_Lop Float_noppmin HCR and LOP: temperature control structures. Use Date Range Impact Type criteria (deg. C) criteria (deg. F) % days not achieving criteria MigrationMay-01 to Jul-15delay< 11.1< 52.0 12 (0 - 53) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15acute> 19.5> 67.1 30 (24 - 42) HoldingMay-01 to Sep-15chronic> 16.0> 60.8 60 (54 - 65) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15acute> 15.6> 60.1 40 (40 - 44) SpawningSep-01 to Oct-15chronic> 13.0> 55.4 69 (67 - 69) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31acute> 15.6> 60.1 15 (15 - 17) IncubationSep-01 to Dec-31chronic> 10.1> 50.2 63 (47 - 68) EmergenceSep-20 plus 1750 ATUs-- Dec-23 (Dec-14 - Dec-31)

36 BUILDING STRONG ® PORTLAND DISTRICT 36 Discussion

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