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© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2008 Chapter 23 Interest rates and monetary transmission David Begg, Stanley Fischer and Rudiger Dornbusch, Economics, 9th Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2008 PowerPoint presentation by Alex Tackie and Damian Ward
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2008 The central bank acts as banker to the commercial banks in a country and is responsible for setting interest rates. In the UK, the Bank of England fulfils these roles. Two key tasks: –to issue coins and bank-notes –to act as banker to the banking system and the government
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2008 The bank and the money supply Three ways in which the central bank MAY influence money supply: –Reserve requirements central bank sets a minimum ratio of cash reserves to deposits that commercial banks must meet –Discount rate the interest rate that the central bank charges when the commercial banks want to borrow setting this at a penalty rate may encourage commercial banks to hold more excess reserves –Open market operations actions to alter the monetary base by buying or selling financial securities in the open market
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2008 Money Supply Definitions M1: cash and coins+ demand deposits M2: M1+time deposits M2Y: M2+ demand deposits in foreign currency
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2008 Other functions of the Bank of England Lender of last resort –the bank stands ready to lend to banks and other financial institutions when financial panic threatens Banker to the government –the bank ensures that the government can meet its payments when running a budget deficit Setting monetary policy to control inflation –more of this later
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2008 The demand for money The opportunity cost of holding money is the interest given up by holding money rather than bonds. People will only hold money if there is a benefit to offset that opportunity cost.
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2008 Motives for holding money Transactions –payments and receipts are not perfectly synchronised: so money is held to finance known transactions depends upon income and payment arrangements Precautionary –because of uncertainty: people hold money to meet unforeseen contingencies depends upon the (nominal) interest rate
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2008 Motives for holding money (2) Asset –people dislike risk – so may hold money as a low-risk component of a mixed portfolio depends upon opportunity cost (the nominal interest rate) Speculative –people may hold money rather than bonds – if bond prices are expected to fall –i.e. the interest rate is expected to rise depends upon the rate of interest and on expectations about bond prices
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2008 The demand for money: summary The demand for money is a demand for real money balances It depends upon: –real income –nominal interest rate (the opportunity cost of holding money) –the price level (currently assumed fixed) –expectations about future interest rates
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2008 Money market equilibrium Real money holdings Interest rate LL Other things being equal, the demand for real money balances will be lower when the opportunity cost (the rate of interest) is relatively high. The position of this schedule depends upon real income and the price level. When money supply is L 0, money market equilibrium occurs when the rate of interest is at r 0. L0L0 r0r0
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2008 Reaching money market equilibrium Real money holdings Interest rate LL L0L0 r0r0 If the rate of interest is set below the market equilibrium – say at r 1 r1r1 – there is excess demand for money (the distance AB). AB This implies an excess supply of bonds – which reduces the price of bonds and thus raises the rate of interest until equilibrium is reached.
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2008 Influences in Money Market An increase in money supply decreases the interest rate. An increase in income will shift the money demand to the right. So the equilibrium interest rate increases.
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2008 Monetary control Real money holdings Interest rate LL L0L0 r0r0 Given the money demand schedule: The central bank can... EITHER set the interest rate at r 0 and allow money supply to adjust to L 0 OR set money supply at L 0 and allow the market rate of interest adjust to r 0 BUT cannot set both money supply and interest rate independently.
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2008 Targets and instruments of monetary policy Monetary instrument: –the variable over which the central bank exercises day to day control –e.g. interest rate Intermediate target –the key indicator used as an input to frequent decisions about when to set interest rates The financial revolution has reduced the reliability of money supply as an indicator –and central banks increasingly use inflation forecasts as the intermediate target
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2008 The transmission mechanism … is the channel through which monetary policy affects output and employment. In a closed economy, monetary policy works through the impact on interest rates on consumption and investment demand.
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2008 The transmission mechanism An increase in money supply reduces the interest rates. This increases the consumption and investment and so the AD increases. So the output increases.
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2008 Investment demand Investment spending includes: –fixed capital Transport equipment Machinery & other equipment Dwellings Other buildings Intangibles –working capital stocks (inventories) work in progress and is undertaken by private and public sectors
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2008 The demand for fixed investment Investment entails present sacrifice for future gains –firms incur costs in the short run –but reap gains in the long run Expected returns must outweigh the opportunity cost if a project is to be undertaken so at relatively high interest rates, less investment projects are viable.
© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2008 The investment demand schedule The investment demand schedule suggests that ceteris paribus higher interest rates reduce the volume of investment projects and vice versa. investment demand Interest rate II I0I0 r0r0 II’ Changes in the price of capital goods and expectations about profit streams at given interest rates shift the schedule up or down. I1I1
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