1. Price Risk Management Jim Dunn Penn State University

2. A son is helping his father plant some red delicious apple trees and asks, “Why are we planting these? The father answers, “I hope that someday someone might want some.”

3. Introduction Most farmers are in the market for corn and other commodities in some manner How much corn will you be buying or selling? What price do you expect? Can you make money at that price? What is your cost of production? Have you done anything to lock in that price?

4. Risk Management What might go wrong? Have you made any provisions for that? What are they? What have you forgotten? The “Hidden Bummer Factor”

5. What price do you expect? How do you forecast prices? Do you subscribe to a market news service? Is there a better way?

6. What are Futures Contracts? A uniform contract for future delivery. Everything is specified but the price. Quantity, quality, delivery time, delivery place, penalties & premiums

7. Role of Futures Markets Provide estimate of prices in future Transfer risk to those who want it Facilitate hedging All are important for Risk Management

8. Provide Estimate of Future Prices Can use futures price to estimate local price Can use estimates to estimate profitability of crop If profitable can forward contract Key is Basis

9. Basis The difference between the contract price and your local price at the time you expect to close the contract

12. Southeastern PA Basis (2000-14) MonthAvgHighLow JAN2790-29 FEB2881-4 MAR30135-17 APR2867-14 MAY35104-11 JUN46197-24 JUL46206-39 AUG50166-15 SEP421412 OCT1873-39 NOV1892-20 DEC2397-26 YEAR34206-39

16. Southeastern Soybean PA basis Monthavgmaxmin Jan-1414-61 Feb-919-63 Mar-1122-55 Apr-1711-44 May-1629-50 Jun-1234-50 Jul-1770-56 Aug-1572-79 Sep-1950-75 Oct-3026-99 Nov-2920-61 Dec-2123-65 YEAR-1772-99

17. Transfer risk to those who want it Speculators need risk to make money Farmers and processors may prefer not to have risk Selling corn in advance to speculator reduces risk for farmer

18. Facilitate hedging Hedging using futures markets has low costs Liquidity helps with lifting hedge Can be used by feed mill to offset risk of direct forward contracts

19. A Simple Price Risk Management Plan When planning check futures prices Work out expected profits If unprofitable rethink what you will do If profitable consider hedging some part

20. Can you lock in your price? Contract locally Use futures market Options

21. Contract Locally Easiest No margin calls No basis risk Price may be a bit less You know who you are dealing with

22. How to Hedge Already face risk in cash market By selling a corn contract for December, you are pre-selling corn You can do this locally or through futures If using futures, see your banker

23. Hedging with Futures For a corn producer Sell a futures contract when you want to lock in price Buy it back when you want to sell corn Sell corn locally Price changes in meanwhile should cancel out Basis risk remains

24. Hedging with Futures For a corn user Buy a futures contract when you want to lock in price Sell it back when you want to buy corn Buy corn locally Price changes in meanwhile should cancel out Basis risk remains

25. Example Now Sell one Dec corn for $3.67 / bu. Expect basis to be $0.23/bu Commissions are $0.01 Lock in about $3.79 December Buy one Dec. corn contract $3.25 Sell corn locally $3.45 Net from futures $3.67 –$3.25 –$0.01 comm. $0.41 Net total $3.86

26. How this works The futures price drives corn prices internationally All markets move together, more or less Profits or losses in futures offset change in value of corn Only uncertainty is value of basis In example basis was a a little smaller than average

27. Margin calls Margin - a portion of value of contract as down payment to protect broker If corn goes up your contract loses money But, the corn that you are growing is worth more Because you have sold in advance, the price changes should have no net effect However, you may need more margin money - fast

28. See your Banker First Make sure the banker knows difference between hedging and speculating and knows the you know Make sure banker knows margin calls don’t hurt your profit outlook Make sure you have arranged margin credit beforehand!

29. What are Futures? A uniform contract for future delivery. Everything is specified but the price. Quantity, quality, delivery time, delivery place, penalties & premiums

30. Advantages of Futures Low transaction costs Liquidity

31. Disadvantages of Futures Delivery locations in Midwest Quantity fixed at a level that may not suit you Quality fixed at a level that may not suit you Contract expiration fixed at a time that may not suit you Lock in price that may be bad, looking back

32. Some Vocabulary Short –Selling a contract for future delivery. You are obliged to deliver if you do not buy your contract back. You make money if price falls and lose if price rises. Long –Buying a contract for future delivery. You are obliged to take delivery if you do not sell your contract back. You make money if price rises and lose if price falls.

33. Vocabulary Hedging –Using the futures market to protect yourself from price risk in the cash market. If you grow corn and have a crop in the field, you could sell a futures contract and lock in a post-harvest price. The profit or loss on the futures contract should offset the profit or loss due to local price changes. Speculation –Using the futures market to try to make money by anticipating price moves on the commodity. Because of the margin, you can control several times as much grain as you could otherwise, allowing for big gains or big losses.

34. “There are two times in a man’s life when he should not speculate: when he can’t afford it and when he can.” Mark Twain

35. Options Insurance against price risk Put – insurance against low prices Call – insurance against high prices Pretty expensive Allow you to enjoy favorable price changes but not suffer from unfavorable price changes No margin calls Basis risk remains

36. Options The right, but not the obligation, to either make or take future delivery on a commodity.

37. Puts The right to sell a futures contract during a fixed time period for a fixed price. Useful to protect a corn farmer against lower corn prices.

38. Calls The right to buy a futures contract during a fixed time period for a fixed price. Useful to protect a hog farmer against higher corn prices.

39. An Options Example Now Buy a Dec $3.60 put for $0.09/bu. This establishes a floor of about $3.60 -$0.09premium -$0.01comm. +$0.23basis $3.73 In December, futures is $3.25 and local cash is $3.45 Sell put for $0.35 Profit from put $0.25 Net from corn $3.45 $0.25 $3.70

40. How this works If price falls, floor price is engaged If price rises, put becomes worthless Only risk is basis value Insurance is expensive

41. Risk Management Having no plan is a decision – but not a good one Especially if you have debts, or large financial obligations You can develop a plan, and institute it, and concentrate on your farming Farms go out of business because of high costs, low revenues, and unforeseen events Some of this is not understanding costs or risk management well