1. Belgrade, 25-26 Apr 2013 Prof. Dr. Zoran Milutinovic 2 nd Project Workshop Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries| SfP 984374 | Improvements and Harmonization of Macedonian Earthquake Catalogue

2. Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013 BSHAP | NATO SfP 984374 Working Packages

3. WP 1: STRONG GROUND MOTION DATA BASE AND GROUND MOTION PREDICTION MODELS Leading Countries: Serbia, Croatia WP Duration: 12 months 1)Examining and filtering the BSHAP Earthquake Catalogue for missing or duplicate events and fulfillment of missing or new earthquake data; 2)Investigating the catalogue completeness and identifying the possible existing gaps in the catalogue; 3)Unification of the magnitude scales and adding available earthquake metadata for the present earthquakes; 4)Providing a final earthquake catalogue compatible with international standards. Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013

4. MACEDONIA EARTHQUAKE CATALOQUE (year 479 BC to 2005 AC) | 681 events | M = 2.9 – 7.8

5. Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013 BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue Kijko & Sellevoll (1992) For testing purposes overall BSHAP (final version) catalogue was examined in order to be defined and tested earthquake hazard parameters. This approach allows us to utilize the historic part of catalogue, or equivalently, the largest, historic events. For testing purposes have been created synthetic catalogue for the area and, with time span 10,000 years. The synthetic data was generated according to assumption that catalogue was divided into 2 parts: extreme events and 8 sub- complete periods.

6. Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013 BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue Kijko & Sellevoll (1992) | TEST 1 Area: and Time span: 10,000 years. Assumption: Catalogue is starting from AD 1150 The catalogue of historical events with time span -510 to 1150 was ignored Mean Activity rate lambda (for Mw=4.0) Min=0.0064; Max=0.4966 Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue (time span 10,000 years)

7. Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013 BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue Kijko & Sellevoll (1992) | TEST 1 Distribution of Mmax Min=6.55; Max=7.62 Distribution of b-value of G-R Min=0.50; Max=1.11 Area: and Time span: 10,000 years. Assumption: Catalogue is starting from AD 1150 The catalogue of historical events with time span -510 to 1150 was ignored

8. Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013 BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue Kijko & Sellevoll (1992) | TEST 2 Area: and Time span: 10,000 years. Assumption: The catalogue is starting from -510. 2 parts, extreme (the largest events, within time span -510 - 1150) and complete (8 sub complete catalogues, until 2010). Mean Activity rate lambda (for Mw=4.0) Min=0.0009; Max=0.3676 Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue (time span 10,000 years)

9. Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013 BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue Kijko & Sellevoll (1992) | TEST 2 Area: and Time span: 10,000 years. Assumption: The catalogue is starting from -510. 2 parts, extreme (the largest events, within time span -510 - 1150) and complete (8 sub complete catalogues, until 2010). Distribution of Mmax Min=6.55; Max=7.62 Distribution of b-value of G-R Min=0.52; Max=1.02

10. Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013 BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue Kijko & Sellevoll (1992) SUMMARY Premises: Area: & Catalogue start: 510 BC S. Cat. time span:10,000 years Grid: 1 degree Node radius: 250 km Results in terms of: Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue (time span 10,000 years) Distribution of Mean Activity rate (Lambda) for Mw=4.0 Distribution of G-R b-value Distribution of Mmax

11. Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013 BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue Kijko & Sellevoll (1992) TestAssumptions Lambda (Mx=4.0) G-R b-valueMmax MinMaxMinMaxMinMax 1 Historical events 510BC to 1150AD ignored Catalogue istarts from AD 1150 0.00640.49660.501.116.557.62 2 Part 1: extreme (the largest events, within time span BC510 – 1150AD Part 2: complete (8 sub complete catalogues, until 2010AD) 0.00090.36760.521.026.557.62 3 Part 1: extreme (the largest events, within time span BC510 – 1400AD Part 2: complete (8 sub complete catalogues, until 2010AD)...

12. Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013 BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue Kijko & Sellevoll (1992) TEST 3 - Ongoing 1)Alternative division of the catalogue (longer historic catalogue -510 - 1400 and -510 - 1830); PLAN 1)Different mesh sizes (used 1 degree); 2)Different node radiuses (used 250 km) 3)Influence of pre and aftershocks on the seismic hazard parameters; 4)Comparison with results obtained from the declustered earthquake catalogue.

13. Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013 BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue Kijko & Sellevoll (1992)

14. Improvements in the Harmonized Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries | SfP 984374 | Belgrade, 25-26 April 2013 BSHAP – Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue Kijko & Sellevoll (1992)

15. Thank you