1. Unit 6: Cognition WHS AP Psychology
Essential Task 6-3:  Identify decision making techniques (compensatory models, representativeness heuristics, and availability heuristics) as well as factors that influence decision making (overconfidence, confirmation bias, belief bias, belief perseverance, and hindsight bias) 
Logo Green is R=8 G=138 B= Blue is R= 0 G=110 B=184
Border Grey is R=74 G=69 B=64

2. Cognition Unit 6: We are here Algorithms Heuristics Biological Factors
Representativeness Heuristic
Compensatory Models
Problem Solving Techniques
Decision Making Techniques
Availability Heuristic
Unit 6:
Cognition
Obstacles to Problem Solving
We are here
Obstacles to Decision Making
Biological Factors
Acquisition and use of Language
Memory
Information Processing Model
Encoding
Storage
Retrieval
Cognitive Factors
Cultural Factors

3. Essential Task 6-3: Problems vs. Decisions
Outline
Problems vs. Decisions
Identify decision making techniques
representativeness heuristics
availability heuristics
compensatory models
Factors that influence decision making
Overconfidence
confirmation bias
belief bias
belief perseverance
hindsight bias

4. Problems and Decisions
Problem solving – the task is to come up with new solutions
Decision making – a type of problem solving in which we already know the possible options.

5. Heuristics in Decision Making
Short-cuts learned from experience, that people use to make decisions typically when facing complex problems or incomplete information
Assumptions
Two Types
Availability heuristic
Representativeness Heuristic.

6. Representativeness Heuristic
You make a decision based upon how much something represents, or matches up, with characteristics from your schema, or the typical case.
Good
School
It matches my
‘party school’
schema so I decide
it is bad school.
Bad School
School

7. Representativeness Heuristic in action.
Decide where they are from.

8. Representativeness Heuristic in action.
Susan is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful, but with little interest in people, or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, she has a need for order and structure, and a passion for detail.
Is Susan a Librarian, a Teacher, or a Lawyer?

9. Representativeness Heuristic in action.
Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.
Is Linda a Bank Teller? Or Is Linda a feminist Bank Teller?

10. Truth or Lie Something that happened to me during grade school.
I got into a fight in the bathroom and my first grade teacher didn’t break it up.
My favorite meal – Sushi at the California Grill
My earliest memory – 4th birthday party
My favorite vacation trip - Disney
A high point of my high school days – Band
The most influential person in my life - Dad
My favorite teacher – Mr. Day my ELA
The part of the country in which I’d most like to live – Pacific Northwest
A surprising talent that I have - Cook
Something interesting about a member of my family – My sister is a concert Pianist.

11. Availability Heuristic
Operates when we make decisions on how available information is. The faster people can remember an instance of some event the more they expect it to occur.

12. Availability Heuristic in Action
Which household chores do you do more frequently than your partner? (e.g. washing dishes, taking out the trash, etc.)
- wives report 16/20 chores
- husbands report 16/20 chores
Ross and Sicoly (1979)
Why? Availability!
- I remember lots of instances of taking out the trash, washing dishes, but I do not remember lots of instance of my wife doing it

13. Availability Heuristic
Why does our availability heuristic lead us astray? Whatever increases the ease of retrieving information increases its perceived availability.
How is retrieval facilitated?
How recently we have heard about the event.
How distinct it is.

14. Which causes more deaths per 100,000?
All accidents or strokes
Blood poisoning or suicide
Homicide or diabetes
Motor vehicle accidents or colorectal cancer
leukemia or Drowning

15. Exaggerated Fear
The opposite of having overconfidence is having an exaggerated fear about what may happen. Such fears may be unfounded.
The 9/11 attacks led to a 20% decline in air travel due to fear. 800 more people would die if they drove just half those miles

16. Which causes more deaths per 100,000?
All accidents (35.7) vs. strokes (57.4)
Suicide (10.4) vs. blood poisoning (11.3)
Homicide (7.1) vs. diabetes (25.1)
Motor vehicle accidents (15.7) vs. colorectal cancer (18.9)
Drowning (1.1) vs. leukemia (7.8)

17. Which city has the higher crime index?
Detroit or Myrtle Beach
Chicago or Baltimore
Manhattan or Gary, India
Boston or Flint
Montreal or Hot Springs
San Francisco or Durham

18. Answers Detroit (crime index = 531) vs. Myrtle Beach (597)
Chicago (335) vs. Baltimore (479)
Manhattan (152) vs. Gary (544)
Boston (223) vs. Flint (329)
Montreal (181) vs. Hot Springs (201)
San Francisco (176) vs. Durham (216)

19. Overconfidence
Overconfidence is a tendency to overestimate the accuracy of our beliefs and judgments.
At a stock market, both the seller and the buyer may be confident about their decisions on a stock.
OBJECTIVE 6| Describe the drawbacks and advantages of overconfidence in decision making.

20. Confirmation Bias
While we make a decision, we actively look for information that confirms our ideas

21. Belief Bias
The tendency of one’s preexisting beliefs to distort logical reasoning by making invalid conclusions.
Democrats support free speech
Dictators are not democrats
Dictators do not support free speech.
God is love.
Love is blind
Ray Charles is blind.
Ray Charles is God.
Anonymous graffiti
OBJECTIVE 8| Explain how our preexisting beliefs can distort our logic.
We more easily see the illogic of conclusions that run counter to our beliefs than those that agree with our beliefs.

22. Belief Perseverance
Belief perseverance is the tendency to cling to our beliefs in the face of contrary evidence.
OBJECTIVE 9| Describe the remedy for belief perseverance phenomenon.

23. Bias after the process Hindsight Bias
a tendency to think that one would have known actual events were coming before they happened, had one been present then or had reason to pay attention.
a.k.a Monday morning quarterback.
‘I-knew-it-all-along’ effect, reflecting a common response to surprise.

24. Decision Making and Judgements
Decision making/judgments are special cases of problem solving in which possible solutions or choices are already known
Logical decision making
Compensatory model
Rational decision-making model in which choices are systematically evaluated on various criteria
Example: buying a car
Good when issues are well-defined