1. Two Countries, One Forest Phase 2 Science Workplan Gillian Woolmer, WCS Canada

2. Science Working Group Mark Anderson (The Nature Conservancy) Karen Beazley (Dalhousie University) Graham Forbes (University of New Brunswick) Louise Gratton (Nature Conservancy Canada) Justina Ray (WCS Canada) Conrad Reining (The Wildlands Project) Steve Trombulak (Middlebury Collage) – Phase 1 Chair Gillian Woolmer (WCS Canada) – Phase 2 Chair Advisory

3. Phase 2 Workplan Goal: Design a Conservation System that is robust for Today and Tomorrow Connectivity Climate Change

4. PRESENT Vegetation Climate Human Culture Vegetation Climate Human Culture FUTURE 2100 Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Priority Areas - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis Priority Areas - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis Movement Ecology Robust Conservation System + Non-focal Taxa Info (e.g. ELU’s) 3 5 4 6 2 9 8 1 7 10 11

5. Conservation Network for Today

6. PRESENT Vegetation Climate Human Culture Vegetation Climate Human Culture FUTURE 2100 Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Priority Areas - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis Priority Areas - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis Movement Ecology Robust Conservation System + Non-focal Taxa Info (e.g. ELU’s) 3 5 4 6 2 9 8 Phase 2 Workplan: 1 7 10 11

7. Present Core Areas Importance: –MARXAN site selection tool –1000 ha planning units –Protected Areas locked-in, Urban areas locked-out –Preference for public lands (incld. crown lands) –Conservation elements Focal species – lynx, marten and Wolf (Carroll, 2003 & 2005) Ecological variation – ELU’s (TNC/NCC)) Rare element occurrences (TNC/NCC) Threat: –Current Human Footprint (2000) –Future Human Footprint (2040)

8. Planning Units Hexagons that transition from a current state of High Irreplaceability / Low Vulnerability to a state of High Irreplaceability / High Vulnerability are highlighted in varying colors reflecting the future scenario under which the level of threat transitions from low to high. CT = FHF Current Trends Scenario, NCL = FHF Rapid Growth – North Central Lakes Scenario, PNW = FHF Rapid Growth – Pacific Northwest Scenario.

9. PRESENT Vegetation Climate Human Culture Vegetation Climate Human Culture FUTURE 2100 Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Priority Areas - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis Priority Areas - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis Movement Ecology Robust Conservation System + Non-focal Taxa Info (e.g. ELU’s) 3 5 4 6 2 9 7 1 10 11 8

11. Step 1: Focal Species For Connectivity Lead: Gillian Woolmer, WCS Canada Estimated Completion: January 2009

12. Step 1: Focal Species For Connectivity Candidate Species Home range information Ecological functions (pollinator, predation) Habitat types Managements zones Human Activities (threats)

13. Step 2: Present Movement Ecology and Linkages Habitat suitability analysis Connectivity modeling tools –Cost-path analysis e.g. Corridor Design – Paul Beier –Graph theory e.g. FUNCONN – David Theobald –Circuit theory - Brad McRae Lead: Gillian Woolmer, WCS Canada Estimated Completion: December 2009

14. PRESENT Vegetation Climate Human Culture Vegetation Climate Human Culture FUTURE 2100 Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Priority Areas - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis Priority Areas - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis Movement Ecology Robust Conservation System + Non-focal Taxa Info (e.g. ELU’s) 3 5 4 6 2 9 1 10 11 7 8

15. Step 3: Future Climate Climate Wizard –A web based tool –Climate predictions for a defined geography –Temperature and precipitation –Uses IPCC models –TNC, University of Washington, University of Southern Mississippi Lead: Steve Trombulak Estimated Completion: November 2008

16. Step 4: Future Human Culture Future Human Footprint (FHF) –Extend the FHF models to 2100 –Issues of defensibility of 100yr models Lead: TBD (Dr. Robert Baldwin??) Estimated Completion: TBD

17. Step 5: Future Vegetation Goal: Model future vegetation distributions Questions to be addressed: Are there indicator plants that can be modeled? Which vegetative units need to be modeled? Are there vegetation types that are critical for obligate species that require specific modeling? Considerations: Natural disturbance regimes Invasive species (bugs and diseases) Lead: TBD Estimated Completion: Fall 2009

18. PRESENT Vegetation Climate Human Culture Vegetation Climate Human Culture FUTURE 2100 Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Priority Areas - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis Priority Areas - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis Movement Ecology Robust Conservation System + Non-focal Taxa Info (e.g. ELU’s) 3 5 4 6 2 9 1 10 11 7 8 Phase 2 Workplan:

19. Step 6: Future Species Distributions 1. Select a set Focal Species 2. Use vegetation models to model future (2100) core habitat for a set of focal species Lead: TBD (Carlos Carroll, Healy Hamilton??) Estimated Completion: Spring 2010

20. Dr. Healy Hamilton, Center for Biodiversity Research and Information at the California Academy of Sciences Predicted distribution for Canada Lynx (Lynx canadensis) based on the average climatic conditions of the past 50 years (1950-2000)

21. Dr. Healy Hamilton, Center for Biodiversity Research and Information at the California Academy of Sciences Predicted Distribution of Canada Lynx (Lynx canadensis) - B1 emission scenario - 2050's

22. Dr. Healy Hamilton, Center for Biodiversity Research and Information at the California Academy of Sciences Predicted Distribution of Canada Lynx (Lynx canadensis) - B1 emission scenario - 2090's

23. PRESENT Vegetation Climate Human Culture Vegetation Climate Human Culture FUTURE 2100 Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Priority Areas - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis Priority Areas - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis Movement Ecology Robust Conservation System + Non-focal Taxa Info (e.g. ELU’s) 3 5 4 6 2 9 7 1 10 11 8 Phase 2 Workplan:

24. Step 7: Future Core Areas Lead: Steve Trombulak and 2C1F Science Working Group Estimated Completion: TBD Importance: –MARXAN site selection tool –Conservation elements Vegetation models Focal species distribution models Ecological variation – ELU’s (TNC/NCC) Threat: –Future Human Footprint (2100)

25. Rich Northern Hardwoods Cedar Swamp Northern Hardwoods Red Spruce Woodland Sparse Acidic Cliff Northern Hardwoods White Pine - Northern Hardwood Forest Black Spruce Peatland Cattail Marsh Spruce-Fir- Tamarack Swamp Oak-Hickory Woodland CalcareousUltramafic Acidic Granitic Acidic Sedimentary Physical Diversity Biological Diversity

26. Ecological Land Units (ELU’s) Elevation class + Bedrock class + Landform 1000 low < 1700 ft100 Acidic Sedimentary10’s Steep Slope 2000 mid < 1700 - 2800 ft200 Calcareous 10 Cliff 3000 high < 2800 - 4500 ft300 Acidic Granitic 11 Steep slope 4000 alpine > 4500 ft400 Unique (serpentine, mafic) 12 Slope crests 13 Upper slopes – Rounded summits 14 Flat summit 20’s Side Slope 20 Side slope 21 Cove or low slope 30’s Flats 30 Dry flat 31 Moist flat 32 Wet flat 33 Slope bottom flat 40’s Aquatic 40 Stream 41 River 42 Lake/ Pond Example: 1000 low + 200 calcareous + 31 moist flat = ELU 1231 low calcareous moist flat 4 x 4 x 14 = 224 possible ELU’s

27. Analyzing Physical Diversity The distribution of distinct environmental gradients across the landscape Landform Geology Elevation ELU

28. This graph tells us that if we capture high enough targets of ELU’s (35-50%) we can likely capture medium targets for focal species, and high targets for ecosystems and rare elements when there is a lack of information about these, say in the future under climate change scenarios.

29. Steps 8 - 9: Future Movement Ecology and Linkages Lead: TBD Estimated Completion: TBD Step 8: Linkages between future core areas (spatial) Step 9: Habitat movement paths as climate changes (temporal) Assumption: habitats will move (latitude, altitude, moisture gradients) Habitat sensitive species (obligates) will require “stepping stone” habitats or assisted migration (hoeghguldberg et al, 2008)

30. Steps 10: Population Viability Analysis Lead: TBD Estimated Completion: TBD Question: What is the likelihood of species populations remaining viable in the ecoregion into the future? Minimum viable population (demographic/genetic sustainability)? Social dynamics? ecological function? Evolutionary potential? –Present population viability analysis based on present core and linkages areas –Future population viability analysis based on new focal species distribution models Ref: Sanderson et al (2006) “How Many Animals Do We Want to Save?.......”

31. PRESENT Vegetation Climate Human Culture Vegetation Climate Human Culture FUTURE 2100 Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Priority Areas - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis Priority Areas - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis Movement Ecology Robust Conservation System + Non-focal Taxa Info (e.g. ELU’s) 3 5 4 6 2 9 7 1 10 11 8

32. Step 11: Robust Conservation System Lead: TBD Estimated Completion: TBD Present core area Present Linkage Future core area Future Linkage Habitat movement path

34. PRESENT Vegetation Climate Human Culture Vegetation Climate Human Culture FUTURE 2100 Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Focal Taxa - Distribution - Suitable Habitat Priority Areas - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis Priority Areas - Core Areas - Linkages - Viability Analysis Movement Ecology Robust Conservation System + Non-focal Taxa Info (e.g. ELU’s) 3 5 4 6 2 9 8 Phase 2 Workplan: Completion 2010/2011 1 7 10 11