2. The lunar cycle is divided into 4 phases – quarters, they were meaningful in rural habits and culture: the peasants sowed and harvested taking into consideration the phase of the moon and following Barbanera’s almanack advice

3. Barbanera was an astronomer, hermit, and philosopher and lived in Foligno. He started studying the elements of the sky, focusing his attention on the moon and its phases. He built up an almanack where he forecast the weather for the whole year and gave peasants advice how to do their work in the field taking into consideration the 4 phases of the moon. These forecasts were sent out in the town by his friend and follower Silvano, who contributed to making him famous.

4. Since 1762 the almanac has been giving the weather forecast for the whole year according to the quartes of the moon The old almanac The modern almanac

6. Let’s compare then, the forecasts of the almanack and the actual performance of the Quintana

7. The Quintana is a historical commemoration dating back to 1600. The objective of the competition is to pierce the rings and to score 90 points in the shortest time. The three rings, whose size changes in diameter after every round, hang in the right hand of the God, a wooden statue located in the centre of the track. During the race competition which takes place at “Campo De Li Giochi” the knights of the ten words compete for the Palio (a silk banner). The eight shaped track of the “Campo De Li Giochi” where the competition takes place

8. When it is sunny the tournament takes place regularly When it is changeable it may take place or may be postponed Whe it is rainy, it is postponed by a week, if the bad weather continues it is definetely cancelled.

9. Correct forecast Value = 1 sunny /tournament takes place rainy / tournament postponed changeable Wrong forecast Value = 0 sunny / tournament postponed rainy / tournament takes place

12. 33 The total number of correct forecasts is 33 8 The number of the wrong forecasts is8 33/4180 % The percentage of reliability 33/41 = around 80 %