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LOAD FORECAST SECTION 1. 2 FORECAST METHODOLOGIES & TOOLS i.Power Market Survey (PMS) Medium Term (5-10 years) ii.Regression Long Term (25-30 years) LOAD.

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Presentation on theme: "LOAD FORECAST SECTION 1. 2 FORECAST METHODOLOGIES & TOOLS i.Power Market Survey (PMS) Medium Term (5-10 years) ii.Regression Long Term (25-30 years) LOAD."— Presentation transcript:

1 LOAD FORECAST SECTION 1

2 2 FORECAST METHODOLOGIES & TOOLS i.Power Market Survey (PMS) Medium Term (5-10 years) ii.Regression Long Term (25-30 years) LOAD FORECASTING

3 3 DISCO-WISE PEAK DEMAND PMS OUTPUT (MW) Name 2012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-182018-192019-202020-21 LESCO 447347104973524255265834618365446907 GEPCO 206821802282238925012618274128693007 FESCO 282530093206341036213892417045434853 IESCO 230724222556270128493004316133223526 MEPCO 334935883808403743004582487851865555 PESCO 259627032818293530543175329834223514 HESCO 118712711361145715601669178719122036 QESCO 161917061797189319942101221423332461 TESCO 570587605623642662682703723 SEPCO 99410581127119912761358144615381647 DISCOs Demand (undiversified) 219892323324532258872732428896305583237334228 DISCOs Demand (Diversified) 194362053721685228822415225542270122861530255 T & T Losses (500 & 220kV) 622657694733773818865916969 % T & T Losses (500 & 220kV) 3.05 NTDC Demand 200592119422379236152492626360278762953131224 Auxiliary Consumption 343362382404426450476505534 % Auxiliary Consumption 1.68 System Demand ( w/o Export to KESC) 204012155622761240182535226810283533003631757 Export to KESC 650 System Demand With Export to KESC 210512220623411246682600227460290033068632407

4 4 FUTURE DEMAND & SUPPLY PROJECTION BY PLANNING POWER NTDC IN YEAR 2000

5 GENERATION PLANNING SECTION 5

6 GENERATION PLANNING SOFTWARES Worldwide used softwares  WASP (Wien Automatic System Planning)  SYPCO (System Production Costing Program) Other softwares  Power Balance System

7 Long Term Generation Expansion Plan Demand & Supply Projections Reports Being Published by Generation Planning Section 7

8 TRANSMISSION PLANNING SECTION 8

9 Transmission Planning Section is Responsible for We follow NTDCL Grid Code approved by NEPRA.” Preparing/updating transmission expansion plan. Proposing new substations and transmission lines. Proposing site & Interconnection schemes for power dispersal of all types of new power plants, both in public and private sectors. Review of feasibility studies/reports submitted by consultants. Providing technical support/consultancy services to the upcoming IPPs, DISCO(s) and KESC. 9

10 Load flow studies Short circuit studies Transient stability studies Power quality studies System Studies Being Carried Out 10

11 Following software tools are being used by leading consultants and electric utilities worldwide; Power System Simulator for Engineering (PSS/E) Power System Computer Aided Design (PSCAD) Transmission Planning Section has version 32 of PSS/E and is currently negotiating with Siemens to; Update PSS/E by acquiring its latest version 33 through Maintenance & Support (M&S) support. Purchase a multiuser wireless license of PSS/E. Purchase additional modules of PSS/E for advanced analysis Optimal Power Flow (OPF) Eigenvalue and Model Analysis (NEVA) Graphical Model Builder (GMB) Softwares Being Used by Transmission Planning Section 11

12 PROJECT PLANNING SECTION 12

13 Preparation of PC-I(s) for NTDC Development Projects Preparation of PC-II(s) for feasibility studies of mega Projects Preparation of Future Development Plan Preparation of Investment Plan Financing arrangements through International Financing Agencies Preparation of PC-I(s) and PC-II(s) for Public Sector Thermal Power Projects Responsibilities of Projects Planning Section 13

14 14


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