1. The Canadian Approach to P Indexes (or, at least, my approach) D. Keith Reid Presentation to Soil Test P Stratification Working Group 24 July, 2013

2. 2 What is a P-Index? It is a RISK MANAGEMENT TOOL to identify parts of the landscape with the greatest potential for P loss to surface water. This should guide management decisions by farmers and land managers –It is not intended to predict P losses from individual storm events It should be relatively simple and easy to use. –This necessitates compromises between accuracy, flexibility and ease of use

3. 3 Types of P Indexes Additive –Components of risk for P loss (erosion, soil test, runoff, P applications) are assigned factors, and factors added together. The current Ontario P Index is this type Multiplicative –P source factors are multiplied by a transport factor –Critical Source Areas (CSA) make up a small area Component –Source X Transport calculations are done for each component separately, then these are added together to give a total P Index

4. 4 Component P Index P formP SourceP Transport Particulate Dissolved Soil P Fertilizer P Manure P Other organic P Surface runoff Preferential flow to tiles Matrix flow to tiles Matrix flow to surface drains Deep percolation to groundwater Wind erosion If all combinations were considered, there would by 2X4X6 = 48 possible components Not all sources or transport factors will be valid in all circumstances, and some (but not all) transport factors will be common across different forms and sources

5. Structure of Component P Index Source Factor Transport Factor Particulate P (Soil Erosion x Bioavailable P concentration in sediment) XSediment delivery through surface runoff Dissolved P release from soil (soil P concentration)XRunoff Particulate P (Soil Erosion x Bioavailable P concentration in sediment) XSediment delivery through tile Dissolved P release from soil (soil P concentration)XMacropore flow through tile Subtotal = Inherent risk of P loss Dissolved P release from fertilizerXRunoff Dissolved P release from fertilizerXMacropore flow through tile Dissolved P release from manure or other materialsXRunoff Dissolved P release from manure or other materialsXMacropore flow through tile Subtotal = Applied risk of P loss Sum = Total risk of P loss 5

6. P Indexes versus Process-based Models “Traditional” P Index Component P Index Process-based Model Inputs AssumptionsRisk is proportional to a number of independent factors Source X transport risk estimated for multiple components Complex processes can be modeled to predict P losses ScaleField Plot, or Watershed Time StepAnnualAnnual or SeasonalDaily OutputsRisk RatingRisk Rating based on estimates of P losses P loss estimates for individual storm events 6 Generalized soil and landscape data Annual average weather Crop and nutrient management Generalized soil and landscape data Annual average weather Crop and nutrient management Specific soil and landscape data Daily weather (long term) Generalized Crop and nutrient management data

7. Questions and data gaps encountered Forms of P to consider –Total P? –Dissolved P – All bioavailable. –Particulate P – Partly bioavailable, but how much? –Different forms have subtly different transport pathways P concentration in sediment –How much and how bioavailable? –Is it related to soil test? (Quebec – yes; Ontario – no) 7

8. More Questions End point for P Index predictions: –Edge of field – easier, but could target fields with no impact –Edge of stream – more relevant to water quality Contributing areas –Distance extending from streambank into fields –Can it be estimated without LIDAR data? –How does width vary seasonally? Setback distances –Is the impact from mitigation of P concentration in runoff, or simply that P isn’t applied in contributing areas? 8

9. And even more questions… Impact of incorporation –Several studies report on contrast between no incorporation and full incorporation. –None address normal situation, with partial incorporation Impact of Tile Drains –Need to account for both positive (mitigation of runoff and erosion) and negative (increased contributing area) effects –P movement from surface to tiles in Great Lakes basin will be by macropore flow (cracks and earthworm channels) –Risk will vary among soil types –Need to determine proportion of tile flow coming through macropores from surface – cation concentration? 9

10. 10 Soil Surface Water Table Matrix Flow Preferential Flow Pathways for P movement to sub-surface drains. Water moves to tiles both through the soil matrix, and preferentially in cracks and bio-pores. This preferential flow by-passes the mechanisms that would bind the P, so carries similar concentrations of dissolved and particulate P as surface runoff. P Pathways to Tile

11. Summary P Indexes will not mitigate P losses on their own, but are a tool to target mitigation to where it will be most effective As we learn more about P sources and transport, the P Indexes will continue to change P transport pathways will vary with soils, climate and cropping systems, and P Indexes must reflect that Tile drainage means that conditions in the Great Lakes basin are different from much of North America 11