1. 1 Pertemuan 01 Makro Ekonomi dan Industri Matakuliah: F0392/Simulasi Perdagangan di Bursa Efek Tahun: 2005 Versi: 1/3

2. 2 Learning Outcomes Pada akhir pertemuan ini, diharapkan mahasiswa akan mampu : Mencari informasi tentang makro ekonomi dan sektor industri

3. 3 Outline Materi Inflasi dan Suku Bunga Surplus dan Defisit APBN Neraca Perdagangan Nilai Tukar Uang Siklus Bisnis dan Industri

4. 4 Technical & Fundamental Analysis Technical analysis – the belief that security prices follow recurrent, predictable patterns Fundamental analysis – the belief that every security eventually sells for its intrinsic value

5. 5 Fundamental Analysis

6. 6 Objective : Value Shares Fundamental Analysis: the process of using fundamental information about a company to arrive at an estimate of the share price Fundamental  would influence opinion of value Value  present value of future cash flows

7. 7 Fundamental Analysis Issue: Must forecast EPS, DPS and growth Must forecast economy ‘better’ than others, then translate into investment advice Economic forecast => Asset Allocation Recession: Bonds  Stocks  Expansion:Bonds  Stocks  Stocks => Which Industry? => Which Co’s

8. 8 Fundamental Analysis Top Down Analysis: * Global Economy * Macroeconomy * Industry Analysis * Equity Valuation Models Economic forecast => Industry => Co’s

9. 9 Global Economy Historically -- highly variable growth Why important? Export Co’s - growth opportunities Competition - imports Exchange rates

10. 10 Effect of Exchange Rates Exchange rate - price of one currency in terms of another Rising $ ==> takes more of foreign currency to buy a $ (price of $’s  ) * Hurts exports - US goods more expensive * Makes imports more competitive * Helps foreign investment in US * Hurts US investment in foreign

11. 11 Effect of Exchange Rates Falling $ ==> takes more $ to buy foreign currency (price of $’s  ) * Helps exports - US goods cheaper * Makes imports more expensive * Hurts foreign investment in US * Helps US investment in foreign countries

12. 12 Macroeconomy GDP –Auto –Steel –Manufacturing in general Inflation –Regulated co’s; utilities –Input prices more flexible than output –Oil companies w/reserves

13. 13 Macroeconomy Exchange Rates –Export sensitive: want weak dollar –Import sensitive (inputs): want strong dollar Interest rates –Housing –Consumer durables –Business investment –Financial services companies –Utilities

14. 14 Macroeconomy Consumer sentiment –Autos –Consumer durables Fiscal Policy –Government Spending –Taxes

15. 15 Monetary Policy Money supply & prices Open market operations: Fed buys/sells bonds=> two impacts àMarket Clearing (short-run) Buys ==> reserves  ; bond prices  ; rates  Sells ==> reserves  ; bond prices  ; rates  àInflation Expectations (long-run)

16. 16 Leading Economic Indicators Tend to lead rest of economy:  Money Supply  Stock Market  Weekly hours  Changes in raw materials prices  ∆’s in consumer expectations

17. 17 Industry Analysis Issue: How sensitive is industry to business cycle? First: Define Industry –SIC codes (recently revised) –Moodys, S&P, Value Line forecasts

18. 18 Sensitivity to Business Cycle Sensitivity of Sales Sensitive: Autos, Steel, Luxuries Non-Sensitive: Necessities; cons. Staples Operating Leverage - firms with high OL are more sensitive (more fixed costs => cannot reduce costs with sales) Financial Leverage - use of debt financing

19. 19 Industry Analysis Industry Life Cycles or Phases –Start up (product development; rapid growth) –Consolidation (software; stable growth) –Maturity (utilities; slowing growth) –Decline (domestic tobacco) High growers => profit opport. => competition Ease of entry ==> competition

20. 20 Summary Economy Sales Operating/Financial Leverage Earnings (Cash Flow)

21. 21 Tugas Kerjakan dan kumpulkan pada Pert 02 Tugas 01-1 Tugas 01-2 Tugas 01-3