1. The Rational Offender The “Classical School” Deterrence Theory
Rational Choice Theory
Routine Activities Theory

2. Social Context of the “Classical” School
Prior to the 1700s
“The devil made me do it”
Punishments/justice system?

3. Social Context II Classical School Criminology (1700s-1800s)
Bentham, Beccaria, others rail against an “inhumane” justice system
Along the way, they articule a “general theory” of human behavior
Borrow heavily from Thomas Hobbes

4. Becarria An Essay on Crimes and Punishment (1764)
On the origin of punishment (Hobbes)
What is the nature of human beings?
“War of all against all”
What should be done to the system of laws?
Interpretation of Laws
Obscurity of Laws

5. Beccaria II What is the purpose of punishment?
“Prevent the criminal from doing further injury to society, and to prevent others from committing the like offense.”
Necessary conditions for this?
Proportion between crimes and punishment
Advantage of immediate punishment
Certainty more important than severity

6. The Classical School Fades
By the early 1900s, most dismissed this as a valid theory of criminal behavior
What emerged is called the “Positive school”
Changes in legal system didn’t lower crime rates
“Armchair theorizing” questioned
Humans as “determined” rather than “rational”
From early 1900s until the 1970s, the positive school was unchallenged
Sociology was dominant force (search for root cause)

7. Rebirth of Deterrence Social Context of U.S. in the 1970s
James Q Wilson, Thinking About Crime
There are no “root causes of crime”
Martinson
“Nothing Works” in rehabilitation
Murray
“Punishment Programs” rather than rehab programs
Economists enter Criminology
Becker’s “Rational Choice” article

8. Current Neo-classical Theories
Deterrence theory
Swift, certain, severe punishment reduces crime
Focus on formal punishment
Rational Choice theory
Focus on how rational offender is
The “flip-side” of deterrence
Routine activity theory

9. Deterrence Theory Assumptions
1. Humans are Rational (cost/benefit)
2. Humans are self-interested and hedonistic
3. Human behavior can be controlled through certain, swift, severe punishment

10. Deterrence Theory
Criminal behavior (or crime rates) vary directly with _______ of FORMAL punishment.
Certainty
Severity
Swiftness
MICRO or MACRO?
Specific or General

11. Marginal versus Absolute
Absolute deterrence: the existence of formal punishment reduces crime
Marginal: increases in existing formal punishment reduces crime further

12. General Deterrence (Macro)
What should reduce crime rates?
Evidence:
Severity of Punishment
Death Penalty Research
Certainty of Punishment
Experiments in Certainty (KC patrol)
Swiftness of Punishment?

13. General Deterrence Micro Level
An individuals perceptions of _______ influence their decision to commit crimes.
“Perceptual Deterrence”
Criticism of “objective” = do people really know the clearance rate?
Better: what do you think the clearance rate is?

14. Perceptual Deterrence Research
Initial cross sectional studies:
Perceived risk, severity SR crime
But, what is the causal order??
“Experiential” effect
SR crime perceptions or certainty/risk
Manipulation of Perceived Risk
Scared Straight

15. Specific Deterrence
A person who commits a crime and is punished is less likely to commit additional crimes.
Swift, Certain, Severe (Marginal)
How test these propositions?

16. Testing Specific Deterrence
Prison vs. Probation?
Perhaps, “time in prison” or “type of prison”
More realistically
Probation vs. Intensive Probation
Probation vs. Boot Camp

17. Deterrence Review: Deals only with formal legal sanctions.
Is this fair?
Classical school roots, policy implications
Empirical Support?
General Deterrence
Macro
Micro (Perceptual)
Specific Deterrence

18. Why little support for deterrence?
We can’t get certain, severe, swift enough
The theory is based on bad assumptions
How rational are we?
Equality of opportunity, pleasure, pain?
“Marginal” deterrence

19. POLICY IMPLICATIONS
General Deterrence: certain, swift, and severe punishment reduces crime rates, or the probability that an individual will offend
Specific Deterrence: CS&S punishment reduces recidivism
Can’t/Won’t make sentences swift, certain, and severe enough?
Incapacitate