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Planning and Decision Making5 © 2012 Cengage Learning
discuss the benefits and pitfalls of planning describe how to make a plan that works discuss how companies can use plans at all management levels, from top to bottom explain the steps and limits to rational decision making explain how group decisions and group decision-making techniques can improve decision making © 2012 Cengage Learning
Planning discuss the benefits and pitfalls of planningdescribe how to make a plan that works discuss how companies can use plans at all management levels, from top to bottom Planning is choosing a goal and developing a method or strategy to achieve that goal. © 2012 Cengage Learning
Benefits of Planning Intensified effort Persistence DirectionCreation of task strategies Managers and employees put forth greater effort when following a plan. Planning leads to persistence, that is, working hard for long periods. In fact, planning encourages persistence even when there may be little chance of short-term success. The third benefit of planning is direction. Plans encourage managers and employees to direct their persistent efforts toward activities that help accomplish their goals and away from activities that don’t. The fourth benefit of planning is that it encourages the development of task strategies. In other words, planning not only encourages people to work hard for extended periods and to engage in behaviors directly related to goal accomplishment, it also encourages them to think of better ways to do their jobs. Finally, perhaps the most compelling benefit of planning is that it has been proven to work for both companies and individuals. © 2012 Cengage Learning
Pitfalls of Planning Impedes change and prevents or slows adaptationCreates a false sense of certainty Detachment of planners © 2012 Cengage Learning
How To Make a Plan That Works© 2012 Cengage Learning
Setting Goals S.M.A.R.T. Goals Specific Measurable AttainableRealistic Timely © 2012 Cengage Learning
Developing Commitment to GoalsGoal commitment the determination to achieve a goal Set goals collectively Make the goal public Obtain top management’s support © 2012 Cengage Learning
Developing Effective Action PlansAn action plan lists… Specific steps (how) People (who) Resources (what) Time period (when) …for accomplishing a goal © 2012 Cengage Learning
Tracking Progress Proximal goals and distal goals Performance feedbackProximal goals are short-term goals or subgoals, whereas distal goals are long-term or primary goals. The idea behind setting proximal goals is that achieving them may be more motivating and rewarding than waiting to reach far-off distal goals. Proximal goals are less intimidating and more attainable than distal goals, which often feel like biting off more than you can chew. Proximal goals enable you to achieve a distal goal one little piece at a time. The second method of tracking progress is to gather and provide performance feedback. Regular, frequent performance feedback allows workers and managers to track their progress toward goal achievement and make adjustments in effort, direction, and strategies. Proper action on performance feedback can keep you from failing to adapt, one of the pitfalls of planning. © 2012 Cengage Learning
Effects of Goal Setting, Training, and Feedback on Safe Behavior in a Bread FactoryExhibit 5.2 shows the impact of feedback on safety behavior at a large bakery company. During the baseline period, workers in the wrapping department, who measure and mix ingredients, roll the bread dough, and put it into baking pans, performed their jobs safely about 70 percent of the time (see 1 in Exhibit 5.2). The baseline safety record for workers in the makeup department, who bag and seal baked bread and assemble, pack, and tape cardboard cartons for shipping, was somewhat better at 78 percent (see 2). The company gave workers 30 minutes of safety training, set a goal of 90 percent safe behavior, and then provided daily feedback (such as a chart similar to Exhibit 5.2). Performance improved dramatically. During the intervention period, safely performed behaviors rose to an average of 95.8 percent for wrapping workers (see 3) and 99.3 percent for workers in the makeup department (see 4), and never fell below 83 percent. In this instance, the combination of training, a challenging goal, and feedback led to a dramatic increase in performance. The importance of feedback can be seen in the reversal stage, when the company quit posting daily feedback on safe behavior. Without daily feedback, the percentage of safely performed behaviors returned to baseline levels—70.8 percent for the wrapping department (see 5) and 72.3 percent for the makeup department (see 6). © 2012 Cengage Learning
Maintaining FlexibilityOptions-based planning keep options open by making, small simultaneous investments in many alternative plans. Slack resources a cushion of resources, like extra time or money, that can be used to address and adapt to unanticipated changes. Because action plans are sometimes poorly conceived and goals sometimes turn out not to be achievable, the last step in developing an effective plan is to maintain flexibility. One method of maintaining flexibility while planning is to adopt an options-based approach. © 2012 Cengage Learning
Planning from Top to BottomPlanning works best when the goals and action plans at the bottom and middle of the organization support the goals and action plans at the top of the organization. In other words, planning works best when everybody pulls in the same direction. Exhibit 5.3 illustrates this planning continuity, beginning at the top with a clear definition of the company vision and ending at the bottom with the execution of operational plans. © 2012 Cengage Learning
Starting at the Top Strategic plans Purpose statementmake clear how the company will serve customers and position itself against competitors in the next 2 to 5 years Purpose statement a statement of a company’s purpose or reason for existing Strategic objective a more specific goal that unifies company-wide efforts, stretches and challenges the organization, and possess a finish line and a time frame. © 2012 Cengage Learning
Bending in the Middle Tactical plans Management by Objectives (MBO)specify how a company will use resources, budgets, and people to accomplish specific goals related to its strategic objective time frame: 6 months to 2 years Management by Objectives (MBO) discuss possible goals collectively set goals jointly develop tactical plans meet regularly to review progress Management by objectives is a management technique often used to develop and carry out tactical plans. © 2012 Cengage Learning
Finishing at the BottomOperational plans Single-use plans Standing plans policies procedures rules and regulations Budgets Lower-level managers are responsible for developing and carrying out operational plans, which are the day-to-day plans for producing or delivering the organization’s products and services. Operational plans direct the behavior, efforts, and priorities of operative employees for periods ranging from 30 days to 6 months. Single-use plans deal with unique, one-time-only events. Unlike single-use plans that are created, carried out, and then never used again, standing plans can be used repeatedly to handle frequently recurring events. Policies indicate the general course of action that company managers should take in response to a particular event or situation. Procedures are more specific than policies because they indicate the series of steps that should be taken in response to a particular event. Rules and regulations are even more specific than procedures because they specify what must or must not happen and often describe precisely how a particular action should be performed. Budgeting is quantitative planning because it forces managers to decide how to allocate available money to best accomplish company goals. © 2012 Cengage Learning
What Is Rational Decision Making?explain the steps and limits to rational decision making 5. explain how group decisions and group decision-making techniques can improve decision making Decision making is the process of choosing a solution from available alternatives. Rational decision making is a systematic process in which managers define problems, evaluate alternatives, and choose optimal solutions that provide maximum benefits to their organizations. © 2012 Cengage Learning
Steps to Rational Decision MakingDefine the problem Identify decision criteria Weight the criteria Generate alternative courses of action Evaluate each alternative Compute the optimal decision © 2012 Cengage Learning
PROBLEM Define the Problem Existing state Desired stateA problem exists when there is a gap between a desired state (what is wanted) and an existing state (the situation you are actually facing). Desired state © 2012 Cengage Learning
Identify Decision CriteriaThe standards used to guide judgments and decisions. © 2012 Cengage Learning
Weight the Criteria Absolute comparisons Relative comparisonsAbsolute comparisons are when each criterion is compared to a standard or ranked on its own merits. Another method uses relative comparisons, in which each criterion is compared directly to every other criterion. © 2012 Cengage Learning
Absolute Weighting of Decision Criteria for a Car Purchase© 2012 Cengage Learning
Relative Comparison of Home CharacteristicsExhibit 5.5 shows six criteria that someone might use when buying a house. Moving across the first row, we see that the time of the daily commute has been rated more important (−1) than school system quality; less important (+1) than having an in-ground pool, sun room, or a quiet street, and just as important as the house being brand new (0). Total weights, which are obtained by summing the scores in each column, indicate that the daily commute and school system quality are the most important factors to this home buyer, while an in-ground pool, sun room, and a quiet street are the least important. © 2012 Cengage Learning
Generate Alternative Courses of ActionAfter identifying and weighting the criteria that will guide the decision-making process, the next step is to identify possible courses of action that could solve the problem. The idea is to generate as many alternatives as possible. © 2012 Cengage Learning
Evaluate Each AlternativeThe next step is to systematically evaluate each alternative against each criterion. The key is to use information to systematically evaluate each alternative against each criterion. © 2012 Cengage Learning
Criteria Ratings Used to Determine the Best Location for a New Office© 2012 Cengage Learning
Compute the Optimal Decision(rating for criterion A) x (weight for criterion A) + (rating for criterion B) x (weight for criterion B) (rating for criterion C) x (weight for criterion C) etc. © 2012 Cengage Learning
Limits to Rational Decision MakingIn theory, fully rational decision makers maximize decision by choosing the optimal solution. In practice, limited resources make it nearly impossible to maximize decisions. Whereas maximizing is choosing the best alternative, satisficing is choosing a “good enough” alternative. In reality, however, the manager’s limited time, money, and expertise mean that only a few alternatives will be assessed against a few decision criteria. © 2012 Cengage Learning
Advantages of Group Decision MakingGroups do a better job than individuals at Defining the problem Generating alternative solutions © 2012 Cengage Learning
Pitfalls of Group Decision MakingGroupthink occurs in highly cohesive groups when group members feel intense pressure to agree with each other so that the group can approve a proposed solution Takes considerable time Strong willed members Groupthink is most likely to occur under the following conditions: • The group is insulated from others who might have different perspectives. • The group leader begins by expressing a strong preference for a particular decision. • The group has no established procedure for systematically defining problems and exploring alternatives. • Group members have similar backgrounds and experiences. © 2012 Cengage Learning
Structured Conflict C-type (cognitive) conflictfocuses on problem- and issue-related differences of opinion willingness to examine, compare, reconcile differences to produce the best possible solution A-type (affective) conflict emotional reaction that can occur when disagreements become personal hostility, anger, resentment, distrust, cynicism, apathy © 2012 Cengage Learning
Creating C-Type ConflictDevil’s advocacy Generate a potential solution Assign a devil’s advocate to criticize and question the solution Present the critique of the potential solution to key decision makers Gather additional relevant information Decide whether to use, change, or not use the originally proposed solution © 2012 Cengage Learning
Creating C-Type ConflictNominal Group Technique Begins with group quiet time Each member shares one idea at a time with the group Group discusses the pros and cons of each idea Group members independently rank ideas presented Idea with highest average rank is selected © 2012 Cengage Learning
Creating C-Type ConflictDelphi Technique A group of experts respond to questions and to each other until reaching agreement © 2012 Cengage Learning
Creating C-Type ConflictBrainstorming/Electronic Brainstorming The more ideas the better All ideas are acceptable Other members’ ideas should be used to come up with even more ideas Criticism or evaluation of ideas is not allowed © 2012 Cengage Learning
Inside Man Does this scene show strategic or tactical planning?What pieces of the planning type does it specifically show? Give examples from the scene. Do you expect this plan to succeed? Why or why not? The 2006 crime thriller Inside Man features Denzel Washington as a tough NYPD hostage negotiator. He finds himself in a high-stakes cat-and-mouse game with a clever bank robber (Clive Owen), who confuses and outwits the police at every turn. Bank robber Dalton Russell is holding 50 people hostage in the vault of the Manhattan Trust Bank building, and Detective Frazier is determined to get them out alive, but the movie’s tagline—”It looked like the perfect bank robbery. But you can’t judge a crime by its cover”—tells us this there is more going on than it seems. In this scene, Captain John Darius (Willem Dafoe) updates Detective Frazier on what is happening inside the bank. © 2012 Cengage Learning
Plant Fantasies 1. Did Plant Fantasies owner Teresa Carleo follow the rational decision-making process to launch Plant Fantasies? Explain. 2. List an example of a programmed decision at Plant Fantasies. Identify a nonprogrammed decision at Plant Fantasies. Plant Fantasies Teresa Carleo, owner of Plant Fantasies, is the gardener for such well-known New York City properties as the Trump Organization, John Jay College, and Jack Resnick & Sons. In landscaping, success often boils down to big decisions over little details. While some decisions involve plant colors and types, others involve complex negotiation with people, such as when Plant Fantasies builds designs created by outside landscape architects. Despite Carleo’s confidence in her own decision making, the Plant Fantasies owner understands the benefits of empowering others. But regardless of who makes decisions, Carleo expects all her employees to share her high standards for quality. © 2012 Cengage Learning
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