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George Moundreas & CO. SA Dry Cargo Segment 2014 Quick Overview What’s next? George Logothetis February 2015.

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Presentation on theme: "George Moundreas & CO. SA Dry Cargo Segment 2014 Quick Overview What’s next? George Logothetis February 2015."— Presentation transcript:

1 George Moundreas & CO. SA Dry Cargo Segment 2014 Quick Overview What’s next? George Logothetis February 2015

2 G.M. & CO. SA LAST YEAR Opportunities ? SWOT ANALYSIS S trengths: W eaknesses: O pportunities: T hreats: Determined by the current Financial position of each company. High Demolition prices (Minimization of Losses – Cash Injection). Fleet expansion - Low Second Hand & New Building Prices with favourable payment terms, back-end loaded. Reduction in average age fleet. Diversification in size. Market Leader in new ECO type vessels and tonnage. Eurozone Crisis. Regardless of the outcome on Fiscal Cliff in USA, possible slow down. Chinese growth stabilized at current levels. Geopolitical issues – China & Japan - Arab Spring Rising of Protectionism

3 G.M. & CO. SA LAST YEAR Opportunities ? SWOT ANALYSIS S trengths: W eaknesses: O pportunities: T hreats: Determined by the current Financial position of each company. High Demolition prices (Minimization of Losses – Cash Injection). Fleet expansion - Low Second Hand & New Building Prices with favourable payment terms, back-end loaded. Reduction in average age fleet. Diversification in size. Market Leader in new ECO type vessels and tonnage. Eurozone Crisis. Regardless of the outcome on Fiscal Cliff in USA, possible slow down. Chinese growth stabilized at current levels. Geopolitical issues – China & Japan - Arab Spring Rising of Protectionism

4 G.M. & CO. SA LAST YEAR Opportunities ? SWOT ANALYSIS S trengths: W eaknesses: O pportunities: T hreats: Determined by the current Financial position of each company. High Demolition prices (Minimization of Losses – Cash Injection). Fleet expansion - Low Second Hand & New Building Prices with favourable payment terms, back-end loaded. Reduction in average age fleet. Diversification in size. Market Leader in new ECO type vessels and tonnage. Eurozone Crisis. Regardless of the outcome on Fiscal Cliff in USA, possible slow down. Chinese growth stabilized at current levels. Geopolitical issues – China & Japan - Arab Spring Rising of Protectionism BACK TO THE BASICS “CA$H IS KING”

5 G.M. & CO. SA What Happened in 2014 ? Why 2014 was worst than 2013 (Placebo effect ?) Panamax was the sub sector with the highest correction DEMAND

6 G.M. & CO. SA What Happened in 2014 ?

7 G.M. & CO. SA What Happened in 2014 ?

8 G.M. & CO. SA What Happened in 2014 ?

9 G.M. & CO. SA What Happened in 2014 ? Cumulative Supply Growth since 2008 From 2008 to 2014 Dry Fleet increased 44% and the Dry Trade Volumes increased 18%. Diminishing Dry Trade Growth, at 4% in 2014 vs 4.5% fleet expansion. NB orders in 2014 decreased app. 55% to 700 from 1,253 in 2013. Demo decreased 33%, from 23.2 m. tn. DWT in 2013 to 15.8 m. tn. DWT Greeks bought 175 S/H vessels and sold about 60. Cumulative Supply Growth since 2008.

10 G.M. & CO. SA What to expect ? Fragile World economic environment, characterized by an “underground” Currency War, Low inflation/disinflation, geopolitical risks, decreasing/volatile Commodity prices including oil, possible rise of protectionism etc. IMF revised downwards the World GDP Growth to 3.5% in 2015 (3.3% in 2014) and 3.7% in 2016. Similarly, the World Bank revised downwards to 3% (2.6% in 2014 ). WTO revised World Trade Growth for 2014 to 3.1% from 4.7% before and for 2015 down to 4% from 5.3% previously. The average of the last 20 years is 5.2% In 2014, the bulk carrier fleet expanded by 4.5% while Dry Bulk Trade grew by 4%. The gap between fleet growth and trade growth is set to continue throughout 2015, as fleet growth is projected to accelerate slightly to 4.8% and trade growth is expected to ease to 3.7%, thus putting pressure in the earnings and on the asset values. Demo to remain under pressure, with a total of app. 16 m. tn. DWT, the same as 2014. Reduction in the average age for demo from 31.5 yrs in 2009 to 27.3 in 2014.

11 G.M. & CO. SA What to expect ? Certain sub sectors i.e. the Supramax/Ultramax, to face bigger obstacles than others due to heavy over supply issues. The order book for vessels between 40 – 65.000 DWT is about 700 of which 548 are Ultramaxes. From those Ultras, 270 are scheduled to be delivered this year, 191 in 2016, 44 in 2017 and 3 in 2018. ECO vessels and oil price ? Drastic reduction in the average age of fleet around 9.1 years from 15.1 in 2009. Finance, to remain tight. Distressed sales to remain a mystery with Banks trying to sell over-evaluated vessels with “attractive” finance terms. The historical 7 years shipping cycle may be under transition/prolongation mode. Private Equity Funds to get their losses from previous positioning but repeat the same mistake as values decrease further.

12 G.M. & CO. SA Finance – PE funds  Global ship lending figures as of end of 2014 is just a little bit shy of $ 500 bn. The position of PE funds since 2008 is less than $ 20 bn.  PE funds which increased their position in 2012-2013 now are facing negative returns and remains to be seen how they will react.

13 George Moundreas & CO. SA George Logothetis February 2015


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