1. MIBE The economics of emerging economies The role of Finance in economic development and the emerging economies development and the emerging economies Gianni Vaggi, April 2014 Finance 3-3 National accounting in an indebted open economy

2. The national accounting in an indebted open economy Suppose D 0 = 100 to be repaid in 10 years and i = 5%, each year:  iD interest payments = 5  Δ D principal repayment = 10 iD + Δ D = DSDebt Service

4. The national accounting in an indebted open economy Remember : FA = NCF = Net Capital Flows = (Inflows – Outflows)  FA = [(Inflows - Other Outflows) - Δ D] = dD/dt Δ D<0 in an indebted economy Δ D is an outflow because debt must be repaid dD/dt is the change of the debt stock during the year, which depends also on inflows and other outflows in the FA.  CA = [(X-M) + (NPI – iD) + NSI]

5. The national accounting in an indebted open economy CA+FA = 0  Suppose an indebted economy where there are only foreign debt related flows: (Inflows - Other Outflows) = 0  and no other item in NPI and NSI other than – iD [(X-M) - iD] - Δ D = 0 (X-M) = iD + Δ D = DS Take the example: DS = 5 +10 = 15 (X-M) - iD = Δ D

6. The national accounting in an indebted open economy IF then IF the trade balance is 15 and exactly covers the debt service, then the overall debt decreases by Δ D = D 0 - D 1, according to the original scheduled payments or: - Δ D = 90 -100 = -10 = -dD/dt IF then IF the trade balance is 5 and covers interests only, then Δ D = 0 and the overall debt does not change: dD/dt=0 IF then IF the trade balance is less than 5 and, then the overall debt increases: dD/dt=>0

7. The Current Account Balance Now suppose there are other financial flows in the CA In the BoP the Current account balance (CA) is the sum of three items:  Trade balance (X-M)  Net income transfers (interest payments, dividends, etc.;)= Net Primary Income = NPI  Net unilateral transfers (remittances, international aid, etc.)= Net Secondary Income = NSI

8. The national accounting in an indebted open economy  Net primary income:  Interests on foreign debt  Dividends (on portfolio investments);  Earnings of FDIs, profit repatriation  Rents on land and natural resources;  Compensation of employees (cross-border workers).  Net secondary income:  Personal transfers (i.e. remittances);  Current) International cooperation,ODA

9. The national accounting in an indebted open economy Consider the following flows: -iD are outflows in NPI = -5 Compensation of employees are often included in remittances NSI includes- remittances - international aid, ODA

10. The national accounting in an indebted open economy Remember: [(X-M) + NPI + NSI ] = CA Current Account Balance and CA + FA = 0 [(X-M) - iD + NSI ] + (- Δ D ) = 0 [(X-M) + NSI ] = iD + Δ D = DS = 15

11. Debt sustainability - 1  D = overall foreign debt  Y = GDP  g n = (dY/dt)/Y is the nominal growth rate  Thresholds < 0  d(D/Y)/dt < 0 The latter: Domar 1944

12. Debt sustainability - 2 By total differentiation of D/Y: d(D/Y)/dt = [ (dD/dt)*Y - (dY/dt)*D ]/ Y 2 = (dD/dt)Y - [ (dY/dt)/Y ] * (D/Y) = (1/Y) [ dD/dt - g n * D ] But dD/dt = [i n D - (X – M)]

13. Debt sustainability - 3 i = (i n - dp/dt) and g = (g n - dp/dt) dp/dt inflation rate on debt d(D/Y)/dt = (i - g)D/Y - (X - M)/Y i, g are the real interest rate and the GDP growth rate d(D/Y)/dt = i n D/Y - g n D/Y - (X - M)/Y

14. Debt sustainability - 4 But there are also other financial flows: Current Account (CA)= [ (X-M) + NPI + NSI ] NICA = [CA – iD] = Non-Interest Current Account NICA = [CA – iD] = [(X-M) + NPI + NSI] - iD NICA largely depends on the trade balance, but not only.

15. Debt sustainability - 5 The correct sustainability formula is d(D/Y)/dt = (i - g)D/Y - NICA /Y

16. Debt sustainability – 6- and national public debt NICA is the equivalent for foreign debt of the concept of Primary surplus (net of interests) for domestic(public) debt (T – G) = Primary surplus [(T – G) – iD] (<0) = overall Fiscal Deficit = FD FD/Y must not exceed 3%