1. China: Threat or Opportunity or Both

3. China, with Provinces

4. What We Know Already 1949: Communist victory; Nationalist defeat PRC vs. ROC 1972: Nixon to China 1979: US-China normalization

5. What is Taiwan? China: A Province of China US: A part of a united China, united in some undefined way and how that works is up to Taiwan and China as long as it is done peacefully Taiwan: Taiwan is a part of China

6. Changes since 1970s Taiwan democracy Lee Teng-huiChen shui-bian Ma Ying-jeou 1988-20002000-2008 2008--

7. Chinese Economic Reform Deng Xiaoping

8. The Statistics http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/02/chinese_economic_history/html/1998.stm

9. Shanghai, China

10. The Dilemma Economic reform: yes Political reform: No But… Economic Calls for ReformPolitical reform

11. Tiananmen Square 1989

13. June 4, 1989

15. Bush 41 View US USSR PRC

16. US Congress View Jackson-Vanik Amendment to Trade Act of 1974 “President determines” that a nonmarket economy nation “denies” or “imposes more than a nominal tax” on those who emigrate or desire to emigrate, then the “products from any nonmarket economy country shall not be eligible to receive nondiscriminatory treatment (normal trade relations)…and the President of the United States shall not conclude any commercial agreement with any such country.” Most Favored Nation status

17. Clinton View What is China? 1.Worst human rights violator on the planet 2.Biggest of the BEM 1993: China given a deadline of June 1994 for human rights improvement

18. The Battle: 1993-94 Public and Congressional debate Business lobbies ($$$) vs. Human Rights lobbies (pressure China) vs. Realists (stable relations) Within Administration National Economic Council, Dept. of Treasury and Commerce vs. State Dept, State Human Rights Bureau vs. Dept. of Defense, NSC Staff, State Dept. East Asian Bureau

19. Threat Opportunity Both

20. China’s Wealth

22. Mark Selden, Nation, Region and the Global in East Asia: Conflict and Cooperation, The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, http://japanfocus.org/-Mark-Selden/3422

23. South China Sea: OIL Ian Storey, Conflict in the South China Sea: China’s Relations with Vietnam and the Philippines, The Asia- Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, http://www.japanfocus.org/-ian-storey/2734

24. Source: The Economist: www.economist.com/node/17601487

25. From: Annual Report to Congress Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2009 (http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/China_Military_Power_Report_2009.pdf. pp 24-5http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/China_Military_Power_Report_2009.pdf

26. The Future 1.China as a regional rival 2.China as a peer competitor –A rival with a functioning economy 3.China as an ideological rival –Liberal-democracy vs. Soft Authoritarianism 4.Integrating China into the world and taming it –Responsible stakeholder 5.China anti-hegemony: “peaceful rise”

27. But…Economic Interdependence Chinese Trade (2010) From Chinese Ministry of Commerce 2009-2010, http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/statistic/ie/200901/2 0090105999698.html http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/statistic/ie/200901/2 0090105999698.html US Trade (2010) From US Census Bureau data; chart from http://www.globalization101.org/a-snapshot-of-us- trade/

28. Mutual Assured Bankruptcy? Who owns the Debt 2011? Federal Reserve information 1.US Federal Reserve and other Government Financial Entities 2.Other Investors/Savings Bonds 3.China 4.Japan 5.Pension Funds 6.Money Market Funds/Mutual Funds 7.State and Local Governments in US 8.UK 9.Banks 10.Insurance Companies 11.OPEC nations 12.Brazil 13.Caribbean nations 14.Hong Kong 15.Canada