1. Cities of Tomorrow Workshop 1 Brussels 28-29 June 2010 Social and demographic changes and their spatial effects – the Czech experience Karel Maier Czech Technical University in Prague WD-07-07-4 Koncepce územního plánování a disparity v území (ČVUT Praha) WD-40-07-1 POLYREG – Podpora polycentrického regionálního rozvoje (MU Brno)

2. Patterns of spatial change from 1990 onwards  spatial change driven by individual choices in weak planning environment big RELATIVE change + big SPEED of the change easy to prove by empirical (quantitative) research – demographic statistics, census, planning permissions new rich, upper-middle migrants from abroad lower middle CITY elderly blue & pink collars posh gentrifiers rural „grassroots“ SUBURBAN BELT RESIDENTIAL sprawl / suburbanization  spatial social segregation warehousing, logistics, assembling plants retail national & multinational headquarters CITY HIGHWAY CROSSINGS MAJOR HIGHWAY CORRIDORS NON-RESIDENTIAL  re-urbanization + ribbon sprawl  spatial sectoral segregation offices white-collar & services jobs SMEs

3. RICH MIDDLE CLASS elderly migrants MIDDLE CLASS elderly POOR  qualitative spatial change size of the change? significance of the change? less empirical (quantitative) evidence  hypotheses, case studies towards 1990 2020? central posh enclaves suburban satellites gated suburban enclaves compact city & garden suburbs housing estates dilapidated exclusion enclaves RICH IN-BETWEENS? MIDDLE CLASS? POOR

4.  emerging new pattern of functional city region centre  CBD compact city high-income locality housing estates „new towns“ rural village rural village encroached by new residences brownfields, deprived neighbourhoods suburban shopping / servicing centre

5. Population ageing: selective problem of places on local scale Czech Republic big housing estates in selected Czech cities (Praha, Plzeň, České Budějovice, Hradec Králové, Pardubice) source: Czech Statistical Office

6. Impact of the changes increased life expectation demographic change delayed marriages and births low birth rates ageing population population decline migration from outside EU inside EU from outside CZ inside CZ  increased spatial disparities varied prosperity metropolitan area of Prague prosperous regional centres rural country old industrial parts

7. Issues, challenges and their management newly emerged ISSUES control and safety released control  increased unsafety personal property  privatisation of safety control real emergence X perception of crime risk climate hazards floods accessibility services jobs upcoming CHALLENGES ageing population decreasing social cohesion peak oil? ARENA FOR MANAGEMENT OF THE CHANGES poorly pronounced public interest national strategies & frameworks follow EU guidance weak role of regional governance  local decisions under control of local power groups and developers development-oriented public opinion civic groups treated as problem-makers X NIMBY DIVERSIFIED IMPACT on particular regions cities neighbourhoods SOCIAL GROUPS  WINNERS X LOSERS WHICH GAME? win – win? zero sum? lose – lose?

8. Recommendations governance new supra-municipal tier of governance  management of urban sprawl / suburbanization  co-ordinated development / provision of services and facilities  co-ordinated development of transportation infrastructure planning top-down o inward-oriented development policy o internalisation of service costs o enforcement of standards for new residential design –passable neighbourhoods –small-grained homogeneous units –compact cities –small-distance cities „soft“ o campaign for better awareness of long-term impact of social fragmentation –Sustainable Cities

9. 9 thank you maier@fa.cvut.cz