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MAKING SENSE OF MARKET VOLATILITY Name Tile Company DATE
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AGENDA STRATEGIES FOR VOLATILE MARKETS LESSONS FROM HISTORY RECENT EVENTS 2.3.1.
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RECENT EVENTS
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A ROLLERCOASTER DECADE… Technology Bubble Financial Crisis European Debt Worries Source: Yahoo Finance. S&P 500, January 1995 to September 26, 2012. The chart above is for illustrative purposes only.
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… RESULTS IN AN EMOTIONAL RIDE Thrill Excitement Optimism Hope Relief Source: Yahoo Finance. S&P 500, January 1995 to September 26, 2012. The chart above is for illustrative purposes only. Euphoria Denial Fear Desperation Panic Despondency Anxiety Depression Hope Relief Thrill Excitement Optimism Euphoria Depression Denial Fear Desperation Despondency Anxiety Panic Optimism Relief Hope
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CAUSES OF RECENT VOLATILITY
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LESSONS FROM HISTORY
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1974 DON’T PANIC OVER THE PRESS Source: Yahoo Finance. S&P 500, January 1974 to December 31, 1997. The chart above is for illustrative purposes only. 19921987198419801979
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DON’T PANIC OVER THE PRESS Source: Yahoo Finance. S&P 500, January 19995 to October 3, 2011. The chart above is for illustrative purposes only.
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FOCUS ON THE BIG PICTURE First 100-point dive in Dow Jones history on Friday, October 16, 1987 The 2 nd was the following Monday Sources: Reuters, Government of Canada. “BLACK MONDAY” THE CRASH OF 1987
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FOCUS ON THE BIG PICTURE Dow Jones down 554.26 points, or 7% 12 th biggest percentage loss and 3 rd biggest points loss on record NASDAQ Composite fell 7% S&P 500 fell 64.63, or 6%, to 877.01 Sources: Reuters. OCTOBER 27,1997
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Closed for 6 days: longest stock market closure since the Great Depression Down 684 points (7%): Dow Jones biggest-ever one-day point decline By weeks end: Down 1369.7 points (14.3%), its largest one-week point drop in history FOCUS ON THE BIG PICTURE Sources: Reuters. THE AFTERMATH OF 9/11 2001
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FOCUS ON THE BIG PICTURE Crash of 1987 1997 market crisis 9/11 Latin America Savings & Loan Crisis Mexican Peso Crisis Russian Crisis European Debt Worries $10,000 $106,197 2008 Financial Crisis Source Yahoo Finance, S&P 500 January 1970 to September 26,2012 For illustrative purposes only. MARKETS TEND TO RECOVER OVER TIME
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STRATEGIES FOR VOLATILE MARKETS
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THE BEST STRATEGY IS TO STAY INVESTED MISSING THE BEST DAYS IN THE MARKET IMPACTS RETURNS As of August 31, 2011. Source: Dynamic Funds, Bloomberg.
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TRYING TO TIME THE MARKETS HAS COST INVESTORS Source: 2011 Dalbar Inc. (US) Research Report. Equity Market represented by S&P 500. THE BEST STRATEGY IS TO STAY INVESTED
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DIVERSIFY BY ASSET CLASS 2002200320042005200620072008200920102011 Global Bonds Canadian Equities Global Equities Canadian Equities Global Bonds Canadian Equities Global Bonds Canadian Bonds Global Equities Canadian Bonds Global Equities Canadian Equities Canadian Bonds Global Equities U.S. Equities Canadian Bonds Canadian Equities Canadian Bonds Global Equities Canadian Bonds U.S. Equities Global Equities U.S. Equities Canadian Bonds U.S. Equities Global Equities U.S. Equities Global Bonds Global Equities Canadian Bonds Global Equities U.S. Equities Global Bonds Canadian Bonds U.S. Equities Canadian Equities Global Bonds Canadian Equities BEST PERFORMING ASSET CLASSES CHANGE FROM YEAR TO YEAR Source: Paltrack, Dynamic Funds. All Indices are represented in Canadian Dollars. Canadian Bonds – Dex Universe Index. Global Bond – Barcap Global Aggregate TR. U.S. Equities – S&P 500 Total Return. Global Equities – MSCI World GR. Canadian Equities – S&P/TSX Total Return.
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DIVERSIFY BY GEOGRAPHY THE BEST PERFORMING COUNTRIES CHANGE FROM YEAR TO YEAR 201020092008200720062005200420032002 Source: Paltrack, Dynamic Funds. All Indices are represented in Canadian dollars Mexico – BMV IPC. U.S. – S&P 500 Total Return. England – FTSE 100 Total Return. Canada – S&P/TSX Total Return. Germany – FSE DAX Total Return. Brazil – BOVESPA. France - Euronext Paris CAC 40 PR. Japan – Nikkei 225 Average PR. Hong Kong – Hang Seng Hong Kong Composite. 2011
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YOU DON’T HAVE TO TIME THE MARKET For illustrative purposes only. DOLLAR COST AVERAGING: BUY MORE SHARES DURING MARKET FLUCTUATIONS INVESTING $500/MONTH FOR 12 MONTHS
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TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DOLLAR COST AVERAGING PRODUCTS Lump Sum Dollar Cost Averaging Product Source: Yahoo Finance. The above chart illustrates a hypothetical lump sum $50,000 investment in the S&P 500. The Dollar Cost averaging product transfers the $50,000 investment into the S&P 500 over a 52 week period, with the remainder waiting to be invested in cash. For illustrative purposes only. THEY CAN SMOOTH OUT MARKET VOLATILITY $52,000 HYPOTHETICAL INVESTMENT IN THE S&P 500
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EXCEPT IN RISING MARKETS Lump Sum Dollar Cost Averaging Product Source: Yahoo Finance. The above chart illustrates a hypothetical lump sum $50,000 investment in the S&P 500. The Dollar Cost averaging product transfers the $50,000 investment into the S&P 500 over a 52 week period, with the remainder waiting to be invested in cash. For illustrative purposes only. IN RISING MARKETS LUMP SUM INVESTING PERFORMS BETTER THAN DCA $52,000 HYPOTHETICAL INVESTMENT IN THE S&P 500
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FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM 504% 981% 14 years sideways Source: Yahoo Finance, S&P 500 January 1950 to September 26, 2012. For illustrative purposes only. STRONG BULL MARKETS TEND TO FOLLOW SIDEWAYS MARKETS
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FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM Rise and fall of high growth stocks The U.S. was committed to a war in Asia Oil prices have skyrocketed U.S. unemployment at 9%+ 1999 – 2012 1982 – 1997 1968 – 1982 Source: Yahoo Finance, S&P 500. Light blue chart from January 1, 1999 to September 26, 2012. Dark Blue chart January 1 st, 1968 to December 31 st, 1997. For illustrative purposes only. DOES HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF?
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Q & A
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IMPORTANT INFORMATION Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in units value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated Views expressed regarding a particular company, security, industry or market sector should not be considered an indication of trading intent of any funds managed by Goodman & Company, Investment Counsel Ltd. These views are not to be considered as investment advice nor should they be considered a recommendation to buy or sell. This document is not to be distributed or reproduced without the consent of Goodman & Company, Investment Counsel. Dynamic Funds is a division of Goodman & Company, Investment Counsel Ltd.
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