1. Satellite Rainfall Estimation Robert J. Kuligowski NOAA/NESDIS/STAR 3 October 2011 Workshop on Regional Flash Flood Guidance System—South America Santiago de Chile, Chile

2. Outline  Motivation: Why Satellite?  Satellite Rainfall Estimation Theory  The NOAA/NESDIS Hydro-Estimator (H-E)  Summary

3. Motivation: Why Satellite?  Spatial Coverage Covers land areas away from gauges and/or radar Covers land areas away from gauges and/or radar Over-water coverage for incoming storms Over-water coverage for incoming storms Spatially uniform coverage at high spatial (3-5 km) and temporal (15 min) resolution Spatially uniform coverage at high spatial (3-5 km) and temporal (15 min) resolution  Latency Potential data latency of less than half an hour Potential data latency of less than half an hour  This makes satellite rainfall estimates a critical input to FFG  (Caveat) Not as accurate as gauges, but quite good for convective rainfall Not as accurate as gauges, but quite good for convective rainfall

4. Satellite Rainfall Estimation Theory  Basic assumptions: Cloud-top brightness temperature (T b )  cloud-top height (colder clouds have higher tops) Cloud-top brightness temperature (T b )  cloud-top height (colder clouds have higher tops) Cloud-top height  strength of convective updraft (higher-topped clouds have stronger updrafts) Cloud-top height  strength of convective updraft (higher-topped clouds have stronger updrafts) Strength of convective updraft  rainfall rate (stronger upward moisture transport produces heavier rain) Strength of convective updraft  rainfall rate (stronger upward moisture transport produces heavier rain)  In essence: Colder clouds are associated with heavier rain Colder clouds are associated with heavier rain Warmer clouds are associated with light or no rain Warmer clouds are associated with light or no rain

5. 200 250 290 T (K) T b =230 K T b =224 K T b =212 K T b =200 K Relationship of IR Signal to Rain Rate

6. Satellite Rainfall Estimation Theory  Reasonable assumption for convective clouds (i.e., warm season showers / thunderstorms)  Poor assumption for Stratiform clouds (i.e., cool-season long- duration rainfall) Stratiform clouds (i.e., cool-season long- duration rainfall) Clouds are warm, but can produce significant rainfall)Clouds are warm, but can produce significant rainfall) Cirrus clouds (i.e., high, thin, wispy clouds) Cirrus clouds (i.e., high, thin, wispy clouds) Cold but do not produce any rain)Cold but do not produce any rain)

7. 290200250 T (K) Cumulonimbus T b =200 K Nimbostratus T b =240 K Cirrus T b =205 K Exceptions Exceptions...

8. Outline  Motivation: Why Satellite?  Satellite Rainfall Estimation Theory  The NOAA/NESDIS Hydro-Estimator (H-E)  Summary

9. Hydro-Estimator (H-E) Description  Operational at NOAA/NESDIS since August 2002  Produced in real time for the entire globe between 60°N and 60°S using GOES-11/13 (Western Hemisphere) GOES-11/13 (Western Hemisphere) MTSAT-1 (Western Pacific) MTSAT-1 (Western Pacific) METEOSAT-9 (Europe and Africa) METEOSAT-9 (Europe and Africa) METEOSAT-7 (Central Asia) METEOSAT-7 (Central Asia)  Information, real-time images, and data at http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/HydroEst.php http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/HydroEst.php

10. Hourly rainfall estimates for 0000-2300 UTC 4 June 2009 HE Example

11. H-E Description  Uses IR window T b (10.7 µm) to determine raining areas and rain rates Assigns rain only to regions where T 10.7 is below local average (cloud top is higher above surrounding clouds); i.e., active precipitating cores Assigns rain only to regions where T 10.7 is below local average (cloud top is higher above surrounding clouds); i.e., active precipitating cores

12. Illustration of the HE Rain-No Rain Differentiation 290200250 T (K) T b < T b Rain T b ≥ T b No Rain T b < T b Rain T b ≥ T b No Rain

13. H-E Description  Uses IR window T b (10.7 µm) to determine raining areas and rain rates Rain rates are a function of both T 10.7 and its value relative to the local average— enhances rain rates in precipitating cores Rain rates are a function of both T 10.7 and its value relative to the local average— enhances rain rates in precipitating cores “Convective Core” rainfall“Non-core” rainfall PW (mm)

14. H-E Adjustments  Precipitable water (PW) from numerical models to enhance rainfall in regions of high moisture availability PW (mm) For a given Tb, rain rate increases as PW increases

15. H-E Adjustments  Relative humidity (RH) from numerical weather models reduces precipitation in arid regions Lower RH  bigger reduction in rain rate

16. H-E Adjustments Instability (LI=-5 K; CAPE = 860 J/kg) BUT convective equilibrium level of 293 hPa = 231 K  2 mm/h rainfall rate!  Convective Equilibrium Level adjustment based on numerical weather model data

17. H-E Continued  Wind fields and digital topography for orographic effects where wind blows: up slope (moistening / enhancement of rain) up slope (moistening / enhancement of rain) down slope (drying / reduction of rain) down slope (drying / reduction of rain)

18. Example: May 2008 Chile Floods

19. Summary  Satellites provide spatially uniform coverage and low data latency for rainfall rate estimation— critical features for supporting FFG.  The NOAA/NESDIS Hydro-Estimator provides real-time global coverage between 60°S and 60°N.  The estimates assume a relationship between cloud-top temperature and rainfall rate Work best for convective rainfall… Work best for convective rainfall… …not as well for cool-season rain and snow, but gauges can be used to “fine-tune” the algorithm. …not as well for cool-season rain and snow, but gauges can be used to “fine-tune” the algorithm.

20. Questions? More information at http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/HydroEst.php or e-mail Bob.Kuligowski@noaa.gov http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/HydroEst.phpBob.Kuligowski@noaa.gov http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/HydroEst.phpBob.Kuligowski@noaa.gov