1. February 6, 2013 - Institut Henri Poincaré – Paris - France Mathematics of Bio-Economics (MABIES) Quantitative tools for the sustainable recovery of the hake (Merluccius Gayi Gayi) in the Region of Valparaiso, Chile

2.  Project started atAugust, 2011  Duration1.5 year  Current Stage Online tool on final development stage  Project websitewww.recuperemoslamerluza.clwww.recuperemoslamerluza.cl  Financial supportRegional Government (GoRe) Valparaiso; Program for the Innovation & Competitiveness (FIC) This project has been carried by a multidisciplinary team and has been leading by Department of Mathematics, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Chile.

3. Research Team Multidisciplinary Group Marine Biologists Engineers Applied Mathematicians Expert on social behavior Journalist PEDRO GAJARDO HÉCTOR RAMÍREZ ALEJANDRO ZULETA DARÍO RIVAS RENZO TASCHERI MAXIMILIANO OLIVARES RESEARCHER ON MATHEMATICAL MODELLING PROJECT DIRECTOR RESEARCHER ON FISHERIES MANAGEMENT RESEARCHER ON FISHERIES STOCK ASSESMENT MARINE BIOLOGIST MATHEMATICAL ENGINEERING STUDENT COLLABORATORS GILDA MEDINA | JOURNALIST HÉCTOR TRUJILLO | SOFTSYSTEMS ANALYSIS GROUP (VENEZUELA) ANGGELO URSO | COMPUTER ENGINEERING RESEARCHER ON MATHEMATICAL MODELLING ADJOINT DIRECTOR

4.  Oldest and most important demersal fishery in Chile  Main fishery resource of the Region of Valparaiso Hake Fishery

5.  In the last decade, the South Pacific Hake's (Merluccius Gayi Gayi) fishery has been very damaged SOME DISCUSSED EXPLAINATIONS OVEREXPLOITATION APPARITION OF NEW PREDATORS APPARITION OF NEW PREDATORS GIANT SQUID Hake Fishery

6.  This situation has led to a reduction of landings and, consequently, to a reduction of the artisan fleet in the Region of Valparaiso (Chile)  Landings (tonnes) of hake. The red line shows the annual global catch quota established and approved by the CNP since 1992. Source: Technical Report (R.Pesq.) N°117/2011 Hake Fishery

7. The aim of this project is to provide quantitative tools to propose recovery strategies for this fishery

8. Stakeholders

9. Yields  Landings / catches

10. Stakeholders Yields Prevention  Landings / catches  SSB Spawning Stock Biomass

11. Stakeholders Yields  Landings / catches Prevention  SSB Spawning Stock Biomass Social Requirement  Level of yields required by the local community

12.  Landings / catches  SSB Spawning Stock Biomass Stakeholders  Level of yields required by the local community Yields Social Requirement Prevention

13.  Landings / catches  SSB Spawning Stock Biomass Stakeholders Yields Prevention Social Requirement Recovery Plan Proposal Recovery Plan Proposal  Level of yields required by the local community

14.  Landings / catches  SSB Spawning Stock Biomass Stakeholders Yields Prevention BIOLOGICAL INDICATORS  Spawning Stock Biomass  Total Biomass Social Requirement Recovery Plan Proposal Recovery Plan Proposal  Level of yields required by the local community

15.  Landings / catches  SSB Spawning Stock Biomass Stakeholders Yields Prevention BIOLOGICAL INDICATORS  Spawning Stock Biomass  Total Biomass ECONOMICAL INDICATORS  Landings  Economical return of the fleets Social Requirement Recovery Plan Proposal Recovery Plan Proposal  Level of yields required by the local community

16.  Landings / catches  SSB Spawning Stock Biomass Stakeholders Yields Prevention BIOLOGICAL INDICATORS  Spawning Stock Biomass  Total Biomass ECONOMICAL INDICATORS  Landings  Economical return of the fleets The plan will be optimal in some predefined sense Social Requirement Recovery Plan Proposal Recovery Plan Proposal  Level of yields required by the local community

17. Stakeholders Meetings with stakeholders

18. Stakeholders To introduce the project To obtain feedback

19. Meetings with stakeholders Stakeholders To introduce the project To obtain feedback Bottom-up relation with the different actors involved in the fishery management

20. Stakeholders 3 Stages Visiting local fishing bays Stage I Interviews with stakeholders in the Region of Valparaiso Stage II “Identifying the main problems for the recovery of hake” Stage III WORKSHOP

21. Stakeholders 3 Stages Visiting local fishing bays Stage I Interviews with stakeholders in the Region of Valparaiso Stage II “Identifying the main problems for the recovery of hake” Stage III WORKSHOP

22. Stakeholders 3 Stages Visiting local fishing bays Stage I Interviews with stakeholders in the Region of Valparaiso Stage II “Identifying the main problems for the recovery of hake” Stage III WORKSHOP  Eduardo Quiroz “Portales”  Miguel Ángel Hernández “Puertecito”  Gabriel Valenzuela “El Membrillo” Valparaíso San Antonio

23. Stakeholders 3 Stages Visiting local fishing bays Stage I Interviews with stakeholders in the Region of Valparaiso Stage II “Identifying the main problems for the recovery of hake” Stage III WORKSHOP

24. Workshop “Identifying the main problems for the recovery of hake” Some key macroproblems The State, the Academy, Civil Society and Business (Industrial-Artisan Fisheries) operating as bubbles From interviews and email consults to different stakeholders (in the Region of Valparaiso), were identified 20 ‘macroproblems’ There is no a joint sociopolitical vision for the exploitation of the hake fishery There is no a joint sociopolitical vision for the exploitation of the hake fishery

25. THEORY WORKSHOPS & STAKEHOLDERS RESEARCH TEAM FISHERIES STOCK ASSESSMENT WEBWARE WEB APPLICATION OPEN ACCESS Technological Transfer

26. WEBWARE WEB APPLICATION OPEN ACCESS THEORY WORKSHOPS & STAKEHOLDERS RESEARCH TEAM FISHERIES STOCK ASSESSMENT Technological Transfer

27. THEORY WORKSHOPS & STAKEHOLDERS RESEARCH TEAM FISHERIES STOCK ASSESSMENT WEBWARE WEB APPLICATION OPEN ACCESS

28. Theory BASIC IDEAS

29. Theory BASIC IDEAS FISHERIES DATA ESTIMATION FISHERIES DATA ESTIMATION MEAN WEIGHT MEAN WEIGHT + OTHERS ABUNDANCE ESTIMATION ABUNDANCE ESTIMATION

30. Theory BASIC IDEAS FISHERIES DATA ESTIMATION FISHERIES DATA ESTIMATION MEAN WEIGHT MEAN WEIGHT + OTHERS ABUNDANCE ESTIMATION ABUNDANCE ESTIMATION N ABUNDANCE VECTOR OR STATE

31. Theory BASIC IDEAS INITIAL STATE N 0

32. Theory BASIC IDEAS Y t N 0 Yields | Landings | Catches [ktonnes] [years] FROM t 0 Yields from some strategy … INITIAL STATE N 0

33. Theory BASIC IDEAS Y t N 0 [ktonnes] [years] FROM t 0 … y min INITIAL STATE N 0 We focus on minimal sustainable value for yield Yields | Landings | Catches y min

34. Theory BASIC IDEAS N 0 FROM INITIAL STATE N 0 We seek strategies which ensures instead of … Y t y min [ktonnes] [years] N 0 FROM … Y t y min [ktonnes] [years] y min as minimal sustainable value for yield y min By modifying the exploitation strategy y min

35. Theory BASIC IDEAS INITIAL STATE N 0 y min y ? What is the maximum possible value for y min ? … Y t y min [ktonnes] [years] y min Mm y min N 0 FROM Yields | Landings | Catches

36. Theory BASIC IDEAS INITIAL STATE N 0 N 0 FROM Mm We can use this value to propose a recovery plan Mm y min Yields | Landings | Catches

37. Theory BASIC IDEAS INITIAL STATE N 0 N 0 FROM Mm Recovery Problem Mm Maximum possible value for y min

38. Theory BASIC IDEAS INITIAL STATE N 0 N 0 FROM Mm  Mm Maximum possible value for y min REQ Recovery Problem REQ Social required level for yield

39. Theory BASIC IDEAS INITIAL STATE N 0 N 0 FROM Mm  Mm Maximum possible value for y min  REQ Social required level for yield REQ Recovery Problem What strategy can be used to pass from N 0 to a “healthy” fishery N(T)? N 0 N(T)

40. Theory BASIC IDEAS INITIAL STATE N 0 N(T) FROM Mm REQ Recovery Problem  Mm Maximum possible value for y min  REQ Social required level for yield N 0 N(T) What strategy can be used to pass from N 0 to a “healthy” fishery N(T)?

41. Theory BASIC IDEAS INITIAL STATE N 0 N(T) FROM Mm  Mm Maximum possible value for y min  REQ Social required level for yield REQ Recovery Problem What strategy can be used to pass from N 0 to a “healthy” fishery N(T)? N 0 N(T)

42. Theory BASIC IDEAS  Mm Maximum possible value for y min  REQ Social required level for yield RECOVERY PLAN REQ Mm  T years  Constant Total Allowable Catches (Yields) N(T) N 0 Recovery Problem What strategy can be used to pass from N 0 to a “healthy” fishery N(T)? N 0 N(T)

43.  Mm Maximum possible value for y min  REQ Social required level for yield  SSB Mínimum value for SSB according Mm  SSB min Required SSB prevention level Theory BASIC IDEAS REQ Mm N(T)N 0 Recovery Problem SSB RECOVERY PLAN  T years  Constant TAC (Yields) SSB min What strategy can be used to pass from N 0 to a “healthy” fishery N(T)? N 0 N(T)

44. Theory BASIC IDEAS RECOVERY PLAN REQ Mm  T years  Constant TAC (Yields) N(T)N 0 Recovery Problem SSB TRADEOFF: COST= REQ-TAC OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM: WHAT IS THE RECOVERY PLAN WITH MINIMAL COST? SSB min  Mm Maximum possible value for y min  REQ Social required level for yield  SSB Mínimum value for SSB according Mm  SSB min Required SSB prevention level What strategy can be used to pass from N 0 to a “healthy” fishery N(T)? N 0 N(T) [ Dynamics and Optimization Problem]

45. Technological Transfer THEORY WORKSHOPS & STAKEHOLDERS RESEARCH TEAM FISHERIES STOCK ASSESSMENT WEBWARE WEB APPLICATION OPEN ACCESS

46. Web Application Recruitment Natural mortality Fishing mortality Selectivity Initial Abundance Vector

47. Web Application www.recuperemoslamerluza.cl Para recuperar su contraseña ingresa aquí Login: Contraseña: EnviarRegistrar Iniciar Sesión →Report generator →Access to previous consults →Workshops information and results User Profile User Profile Recovery Plan Analysis under conditions entered by user Recovery Plan Analysis under conditions entered by user

48. Web Application  The user selects the year to start analysis →The application uses the respective estimated abundance vector TOTAL BIOMASS LEVEL COMPARISON FROM ESTIMATED ABUNDANCE VECTORS 2011 N 0  Error on estimation →The user can select an error level on estimated abundance vector 0% e N 0 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Natural mortality Initial Abundance Vector Selectivity User Requirements Recruitment

49. Web Application  The user selects the year to start analysis →The application uses the respective estimated abundance vector 2002 N 0  Error on estimation →The user can select an error level on estimated abundance vector -10% e N 0 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 TOTAL BIOMASS LEVEL COMPARISON FROM ESTIMATED ABUNDANCE VECTORS Natural mortality Initial Abundance Vector Selectivity User Requirements Recruitment

50. Web Application  The user selects a population ‘recruitment level’ (a believe about the impact of the recruits) →The application uses the steepness factor on a Beverton-Holt stock recruitment relationship Recruitment level MEDIUM HIGH MEDIUM LOW [k*recruits] SSB [ktonnes] SPAWNING STOCK BIOMASS VS NUMBER OF RECRUITS HIGH MEDIUM LOW HIGH MEDIUM LOW [ Dynamic Function] Natural mortality Initial Abundance Vector Selectivity User Requirements Recruitment

51. Web Application  The user selects an exploitation pattern →From database or logisitic curve Exploitation pattern from database Exploitation pattern from logistic curve EXPLOITATION PATTERN SELECTIVITY AGE 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1.0 0.0 a 50% 8 11 a 95% EXPLOITATION PATTERN SELECTIVITY AGE 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1.0 0.0 0.95 0.50 Natural mortality Initial Abundance Vector Selectivity User Requirements Recruitment

52. Web Application Natural mortality Initial Abundance Vector Selectivity User Requirements Recruitment Natural Mortality Without Giant Squid (M = 0.33) With Giant Squid (M = 0.63) Other M  The user enters a natural mortality value depending on the apparition of predators (Giant Squid) [ Dynamic Function]

53. Web Application ATTENTION Under actual assumptions it is not possible to take a sustainable yield greater than 32180 [tonnes] or a prevention level for SSB greater than 306650 [tonnes]. To consider, REQ ≤ 32180 [tonnes] SSB min ≤ 306650 [tonnes] Social required level for yield [tonnes] Required SSB prevention level [tonnes] User Requirements Recovery Plan Analysis  Before the user enters data, the application shows thresholds for the user requirements, based on the scenario formulated from previous stages User Requirements

54.  If the requirements are compatible, the application can start with the recovery plan analysis. Web Application RECOVERY PLAN ANALYSIS Under actual assumptions, every recovery plan evaluated needs not less than 2 years of implementation. ATTENTION Under actual assumptions it is not possible to take a sustainable yield greater than 32180 [tonnes] or a prevention level for SSB greater than 306650 [tonnes]. To consider, REQ ≤ 32180 [tonnes] SSB min ≤ 306650 [tonnes] Social required level for yield 30000 [tonnes] Required SSB prevention level [tonnes] 116000 User Requirements Recovery Plan Analysis

55. Web Application Recovery Plan Recovery Plan Proposal  The analysis suggest to consider a TAC of 23.6 [ktonnes] during 4 [years] to recover the fishery.  This alternative minimize the cost with a 6.4 [ktonnes] tradeoff per year.  This leads to a total cost of 25.6 [ktonnes] during the entire period (4 years). Y 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 30.0 [ktonnes] 23.6 [ktonnes] Sustainable Fishery SSB 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 116.0 [ktonnes] YIELDS/LANDINGS PER YEAR RESPECTIVE SPAWNING STOCK BIOMASS LEVELS PER YEAR Recovery Plan TAC associated with the minimal cost recovery plan Landings for ‘healthy fishery’ equal to REQ Projection with a constant landing level equal to REQ Social required level for yield by user (REQ) Required SSB prevention level by user (SSB min ) Recovery Plan Proposal Effects

56. Web Application Dissatisfaction level (Total costs associated) Social required level for yield by user (REQ) TAC associated with the respective recovery plan TAC associated with the minimal cost recovery plan POSSIBLE RECOVERY PLANS Implementation years to recovery 30.0 [ktonnes] 23.6 [ktonnes] 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Recovery Plan Alternative Recovery Plans

57. Transfering …  Our web application can be used freely  However, this version has some limitations that can be improved together with the stakeholders if needed  We expect this tool can be useful for artisan fishermen

58. www.recuperemoslamerluza.cl More details about the project in MABIES – IHP - 2013 Quantitative tools for the sustainable recovery of the hake (Merluccius Gayi Gayi) in the Region of Valparaiso, Chile Thanks!

59. [ Natural Mortality] Theory Dynamic function and Optimization Problem DIFFERENCE EQUATION BASIC IDEAS OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM DYNAMIC FUNCTION : Discount factor [ Recruitment] [ Recovery Problem]